YouGov Polls 2007

'Labour does, it seems, face a very real danger of losing next year's Scottish election.' Professor John Curtice, 27 th November 2006.

Survey: SNP could top poll

A C4N poll suggests the SNP could top the poll in elections for the next Scottish parliament

By Gary Gibbon in Channel Four News 9 th January 2007

An opinion poll for Channel 4 News makes bad reading for the Labour party north of the border today.

Ahead of May's elections to the Scottish parliament, Labour has now fallen narrowly behind the Scottish Nationalists, threatening the Labour-Libdem administration of Jack McConnell.

But the YouGov poll also reveals that the public would not yet support independence for Scotland if an elected SNP were to call a referendum.

Analysis of the poll suggests that the SNP could win 45 seats, Labour 42, Conservative 18, Liberal Democrats 14, Green Party 7 and others 3. Some 40% of respondents said they supported Scottish independence but that figure sank to 31% when a second question - offering other preferences like more devolved powers to the existing Scottish parliament - was put.

The poll also suggests Labour could be heading for a grim night on May 3rd in Scottish local elections with a share of the vote down to 31%.

Analysis suggests that could mean Labour is left in control of only three of the Scotland's 32 councils.

Poll predicts coalition of at least three parties

By Douglas Fraser in the Herald 10 th January 2007

At least three parties will be needed to form a governing partnership in May, according to the first opinion poll in election year.

Less than four months until the Holyrood ballot, the survey has given a further boost to the SNP, which is ahead of Labour on both votes for the parliament.

However, an analysis of voting intentions, translated into seats, means that neither Labour nor the SNP could form a majority of at least 65 seats with only one other party - unless there is the unlikely outcome of a grand alliance between the biggest two.

Professor John Curtice, electoral expert at Strathclyde University, believes the latest poll figures would secure 45 seats for the SNP, up by 18 from the 27 it won four years ago. Labour would lose eight seats and have 42, while the Conservatives would retain 18 and the LibDems' share would be cut by three to 14.

It is also thought the Green Party would retain seven seats. That means the Greens could be required to add to LibDem votes if either main party is to secure a controlling majority and pass its legislation.

Another option may be that Labour has to look to Conservatives for less formal support, as Tory leader Annabel Goldie has indicated she does not want to join Labour's ministerial team. The SNP has ruled out alliances with Tories.

Nationalists pointed out yesterday that they have never been in such a consistently strong poll position. However, the survey for Channel 4 News also showed that Scottish opinion on independence is more complex than previous polls have suggested.

Asked if Scotland should be independent, respondents to the survey showed 44% opposition and 40% support. However, asked about a wider range of options, the public showed the total support for independence fell to 31%, while the favoured option, at 37%, was for Scotland to remain within the UK with more powers held at Holyrood.

That 37% backing may be good news for those who support the union with England, but it does not support Labour's argument that there is no need for change to current powers. YouGov found only 12% of Scots agreed with Jack McConnell and Tony Blair's opinions on that.

The SNP's proposal of Scotland separating from the UK while remaining in Europe was backed by 22%, while 9% wants out of Europe as well as the UK.

One in 10 Scots wants Holyrood abolished and its powers returned to Westminster.

The survey suggests Labour would benefit by replacing Prime Minister Tony Blair with Gordon Brown before the May 3 ballot.

If Mr Blair remains in charge, it would improve the chance of 6% of voters opting for Labour, while having the Chancellor take over in 10 Downing Street would boost the likelihood of backing Labour for 15% of people.

The headline figures on voting intention can best be compared with YouGov's similar poll two months ago when it asked the same questions.

By including smaller parties in the question of constituency votes - despite the Greens' and Socialists' intention to stand only for regional votes - it found 33% support for the SNP, two points ahead of Labour.

Both Conservatives and LibDems were down one point on 14% each.

On respondents' intentions for the regional vote, the SNP has been boosted by five points since November, standing this month at 33%, while Labour is down one at 28%. Tories were down two to 15% and LibDems fell four to 11%.

The YouGov poll also shows that Labour faces being severely knocked back from its dominance of local authorities.

While voting intentions put the party one point ahead of the SNP - by 31% to 30%, with the LibDems and Tories both on 15% - the proportional voting system could mean Labour retains majority control of only three out of Scotland's 32 councils.

An SNP spokesman said Labour's scaremongering about the Nationalists "has backfired and their campaign is now in big trouble", while claiming the poll was bad news for Tories and a disaster for LibDems.

Labour dismissed the survey as "just another poll, proving polls are totally inconsistent". The poll questioned 1061 people in Scotland.

First election year poll has SNP on course for victory

By Hamish MacDonnell, Scottish Political Editor in the Scotsman 10 th January 2007

New Poll Shows SNP Momentum Growing

THE SNP is still leading the race for Holyrood, according to the first poll of the New Year published today.

A YouGov internet poll for Channel 4 News found the Nationalists were ahead of Labour on both the constituency and regional votes for the parliament.

The SNP received 33 per cent on the constituency vote to Labour's 31 per cent, and 33 per cent on the regional vote, five points ahead of Labour on 28 per cent. Translated into seats, the poll would give the SNP 44 seats to Labour's 39, a rise of 17 for the Nationalists and a fall of 11 for Labour.

However, with the Liberal Democrats languishing on 14 per cent and 11 per cent in the vote and with only an estimated 17 seats, the SNP would have to get support from both the Lib Dems and the Greens to form an administration.

The poll was not good news for the Conservatives, giving them 14 per cent and 15 per cent on the two votes, with a predicted return of 18 seats, which would be no change from their current position.

The Greens are also predicted to stay stable on seven seats, but the SSP, with only 1 per cent, would lose all its MSPs if the poll were replicated on election day.

Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, hailed the poll as "this is the best possible start to the year for the SNP and Scotland".

But a Labour spokesman said: "This puts Labour in a stronger position than the last SNP poll by the same polling organisation. What this poll shows is that voters face a clear choice in May, schools with Labour or separation with the SNP."

The poll took the opinions of 1,061 Scots over four days. The interviews were done by e-mail with respondents who agreed to be questioned by YouGov.

From the Scottish National Party 10 th January 2007

A new poll from YouGov commissioned by Channel 4 News has shown the SNP gaining momentum in the countdown to this year's Scottish Parliament election, as the Labour Party's negative London-based campaign continues to backfire.

The poll shows:

• SNP ahead on both Constituency and Regional votes
• 2-Horse race as SNP vote increases with Labour in decline
• 1st Holyrood poll ever to show the SNP ahead on both votes at this stage of a campaign

Constituency Vote

Regional Vote

Seat Analysis

The wording of the independence options in this poll contain negative phraseology however, when offered a range of options, a mere 12% of Scots support Labour's status quo position, i.e. no more powers for the parliament. Other polls with neutral phraseology show a more favourable result.

Independence

Salmond hails opinion poll results

From the ic Scotland 10 th January 2007

SNP leader Alex Salmond has hailed the results of a new opinion poll, which put his party ahead of Labour in the race for Holyrood.

The YouGov poll, carried out for Channel 4 News, showed 33% support for the Nationalists in the constituency vote - up one percentage point from November last year.

Meanwhile the poll showed the support for Labour had dropped slightly over the same period, going from 32% in November to 31%. Both the Tories and the Lib Dems saw their support fall by one percentage point, with each of the parties recording 14% in this latest survey.

Nats edge into lead

From the Daily Record 10 th January 2007

THE Nats are ahead of Labour in both sections of the Holyrood vote for the first time, a new poll claims.

The YouGov poll shows the SNP up one point at 33 per cent in the constituency vote while Labour drop a point to 31. In the regional votes, the poll shows the SNP further ahead.

The Nats are on 33 per cent, up five from the previous poll in November while Labour dropped a point to 28 per cent. There was more good news for the Nationalists with the poll showing support growing for independence.

It shows support up nine points to 40 per cent, while opposition has dropped six points to 44 per cent.