 | 'Charles Kennedy started the week by lambasting the government over health cuts in Scotland - good thing too. The only problem is that he was attacking the Scottish government - his own government - that is the one his party props up. Charles wants to bring down a Lab/Lib government and replace it with a Lab/Lib government!' SNP leader, Alex Salmond MP, 25 th September 2004. |  |
SUPPORT for Scottish independence has reached an all-time high, according to a poll released yesterday by Alex Salmond, the SNP leader. He claimed it was evidence that his party had returned to setting the political agenda.
Asked by TNS System Three "do you support or oppose Scotland becoming a country independent from the rest of the UK?", 46% were in favour and 39% against, with 15% undecided.
Only among those aged more than 55 was there opposition to independence, prompting Mr Salmond to claim it was now an idea whose time had come.
He said: "Independence is the big idea in Scottish politics and is now set to move to centre stage in this campaign. We have a chance to make Scotland's parliament a powerhouse parliament."
The SNP leader argued that the "angst" over the Holyrood project was now fading and people were turning to discussion on the future of Scotland. "Whatever the controversy, now that we have a real parliament building, people clearly want a real parliament to be meeting inside it," he said.
TNS System Three canvassed 922 voters during the first week of this month. The same fieldwork showed voting intentions for May 5, with Labour on 45%, the SNP on 23% and the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats both on 14%, with the minority parties squeezed.
But Tories and LibDems will likely score higher because of the greater tendency of middle-class voters to turn out.
But for Mr Salmond, the question of independence showed his party turning the corner in terms of the battle for ideas. Nicola Sturgeon, his deputy, said: "This is a real boost for the SNP's general election campaign. Not only do most Scots back independence, but a clear majority of those under 55 are in favour.
"The independence generation is getting bigger. The devolved Scottish Parliament is a toothless tiger. We want to turn it into a powerhouse parliament."
Only in the west of Scotland, outwith Glasgow and Lothian, was there a minority vote for independence, with majorities in favour in every other part of Scotland.
Women, traditionally more hostile to the idea, were almost as supportive as men, although they had a higher percentage of undecided voters.
Those aged 25-34 were the most enthusiastic in support of independence, backing it by 57% to 21%.
The majorities in favour applied across the age ranges until it came to those over 55, while opposition widened among those aged over 65. There was also a division along social class lines, with the blue-collar workers more supportive of independence than white-collar.
Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, agreed that it was a significant finding, but pointed out that the framing of the question Ð for or against a concept, rather than asking for a choice between different stated options Ð probably boosted the independence score.
"It's a question that mimics the one asked during the devolution referendum and you always get a higher positive result that way," he said. "It's not that it doesn't tell you anything.
"People want greater relative autonomy, but whether that is the same thing as SNP-style full independence is another question.
"It is interesting and suggests a mood that the Scottish parliament isn't doing enough."
Mr Salmond said something similar. "This poll demonstrates in dramatic terms the new appetite for moving towards independence," he argued, and he accepted that the challenge for his party was persuading independence voters in other parties to switch their allegiance to the SNP, pointing out that half of Labour supporters, one-third of LibDem voters, and even a fifth of Conservatives came out in support of independence.
When TNS System Three asked about the constitution twice in the course of 1998, respondents were asked to back either "a Scottish Parliament with Scotland remaining part of the UK" or "an independent Scotland".
On both occasions, the independence option scored 34%, while devolution was preferred by around 60%.
Now that devolution is the accepted status quo, support for independence appears to have hardened.
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