System 3 Opinion Polls

'It would be churlish to deny the Conservative party their part in our victory tonight.' Rt Hon Robin Cook MP, 2 nd May 1997.

Labour leads field after first week

By Douglas Fraser in the Herald 11 th April 2005

A NEW opinion poll, commissioned by the Scottish National Party, has confirmed Labour's dominance of the field in Scotland over the first week of the election campaign. The SNP has hailed it as a success, because it shows the party as lead challenger, ahead of its Conservative and Liberal Democrats rivals. That follows a Mori survey last week which showed the Nationalists falling into fourth place among those certain to vote. The TNS System Three poll of voting intentions for Westminster, taken between January 31 and April 7, puts Labour on 45%. The SNP registered 23%, both Tories and LibDems were on 14%, and Scottish Socialists had 2% support.

A lack of polling by the Scottish media has left parties and commentators without reliable information on the electorate's mood and intentions until the start of this year. Since then, seven surveys have recorded wide variations in each party's support. This may reflect different methodologies. Some are internet polls, some survey by telephone, one was taken over two months, and all are slightly weighted to adjust for region, age and gender.

None of them is sufficiently detailed to pick up the constituency variations that could dictate the eventual outcome of the seat share.

The picture emerging, however, is that the vote share has not altered radically since 2001. There are wide variations in particular for Labour, but more recent polls have put it comfortably above 40%. Its average position has been 41%, with the SNP on 20%, and both Conservatives and LibDems 17%.

The SNP is keen not to relinquish second position for the first time in 13 years. Securing that will not in itself deliver Westminster seats, but all parties could use a useful springboard for the 2007 Holyrood election.

TNS System Three has given the SNP two strong results this year. The polling company has previously been criticised by Conservatives for failing to record the level of Tory support.

YouGov, which had the poll findings closest to the outcome of the 2003 Holyrood election, has Labour registering the lowest levels this year, at 33% and 36%. On both occasions, it found its three main rivals bunched very closely between 18% and 20%. This morning, BBC Scotland is to broadcast the results of opinion research into the issues that matter most to voters in this campaign.