MORI Opinion Polls

'Michael Howard has already placed himself in the pantheon of political losers alongside Michael Foot ('the longest suicide note' in 1983) and Neil Kinnock (the Sheffield rally in 1992).' Iain MacWhirter in the Sunday Herald, 3 rd April 2005.

Exclusive poll for Grampian TV

From Grampian TV 8 th April 2005

The SNP is set to lose half its seats and see its vote drop dramatically, according to an exclusive poll for Grampian TV. Conducted by the polling organisation MORI, it also shows that despite problematic boundary changes, Labour could actually gain an additional seat on May the fifth.

Day four of election 2005 saw the usual politicking but it was the first Scottish opinion poll of the campaign that had the leaders talking. MORI polled 957 adults between the 26th January and the 5th of April.

47% said they would vote Labour, 4% higher than in 2001
18% said they would vote Conservative, up 2% and putting them in second place
15% would vote Liberal Democrat, that's down 1%
15% opted for the SNP, down 5%.

In short, great news for Labour, something of a disaster for the Nationalists. If the poll figures were applied to the new boundaries and this assumes a uniform swing across all of Scotland:

Labour would have 46 seats, gaining Moray from the SNP
The Liberal Democrats would hold their 9 seats
The SNP would be down to two
The Tories would have one, picking up Angus from the SNP

A lot will depend on how many people go to the polls, whether turnout is higher among voters of different parties and whether they vote tactically.

52% said they were certain to vote. That compares to a turnout of 59% in 2001. But the only poll that counts of course is the one on May the 5th. Over to you, the voters.

Poll drops the SNP into fourth place

By Douglas Fraser, Scottish Political Editor in the Herald 11 th April 2005

THE SNP has tumbled in a new poll, dropping from second to fourth place, behind the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

The MORI Scotland findings deflated the party's election campaign, in which Alex Salmond, the party leader, had already placed low expectations on the May 5 result.

Having been a clear second to Labour at every ballot since 1992, the SNP is at 15%, and that falls to 13% among those who said they are certain to vote.

Labour is at 47%, far ahead of its standing throughout the UK. It appears to vindicate the tactic of marginalising the SNP and focusing its attack on Conservatives. The poll put the Tories on 18% and LibDems on 15%, with both doing 3% better among those certain to vote. Labour's three main opponents are now fighting each other to take second place, which will in turn be vital to the momentum needed for the 2007 Holyrood election.

If the decline in SNP support were applied uniformly across Scotland, it would leave Mr Salmond as the party's only remaining MP. But the poll, carried out for Politics Now on Scottish/Grampian Television, does not take account of regional strength in Tayside and north-east Scotland, where the party could still gain seats from Labour, even if it faced a poor national result.

The SNP leadership was angered by the MORI findings, and criticised the pollsters' methodology. It contrasted the result with a YouGov poll, published on Monday, which put the SNP on 21%.

In other campaigning, Scottish politicians clashed over the economy and immigration, while in London, Labour again focused on its economic record, and Michael Howard, the Tory leader, set out his plans to clean up hospitals.

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