 | 'The real issue in the Holyrood scandal is the misleading of the Scots Parliament and thus the people. When the Parliament was told in June 1999 that the price tag was £109 million they voted for it by a wafer thin majority of just three votes. The real price at that stage was over £200 million.' SNP leader, Alex Salmond MP, 25 th September 2004. |  |
TONY BLAIR received a warning shot across his bows after an exclusive Sunday Mail poll revealed a dramatic slump in Labour backing in Scotland. Support slipped from 48 per cent to 38 per cent in the wake of anger over anti-terror laws and the war in Iraq.
The biggest winners were Charles Kennedy's Liberal Democrats, who saw support leap 12 per cent, making them the second-biggest party in Scotland.
The SNP and Tories saw their popularity slip but the SSP and the Greens picked up support.
With a General Election looming, our poll - conducted by Scottish Opinion - shows that Labour cannot take Scottish voters for granted.
Their support here now matches that in England, where a MORI poll last month put them on 39 per cent, just ahead of the Tories.
Down south, the Tories are just two points behind Blair's party, while our poll shows them dropping from 18 per cent with Scots voters to 15 per cent.
Political commentators say the Lib Dem leap to 23 per cent is down to a combination of their consistent opposition to the Iraq war and disagreement with Labour over the controversial proposed anti-terror laws.
But Alex Salmond will take little comfort as his party has shed four points in the last month, to languish behind the Lib Dems on just 16 per cent.
Traditionally, Labour do better in polls in Scotland than across the whole UK. They stood at just under 44 per cent in 2001, compared to 41 per cent nationally.
The drop in Scotland is proof that Labour's determination to push through draconian anti-terror laws don't go down well with voters north of the border.
Dr Peter Lynch, of Stirling University, described our results as a 'warning shot' to Labour after a week dominated by their pursuit of new laws to put suspected terrorists under house arrest without trial.
Dr Lynch said: 'This is great news for the Lib Dems, who have never had this level of support in Scotland.
'Also, the Tories have fired off a lot of their General Election policies. But they have barely registered with public consciousness, hence the drop in this poll.' But of the Lib Dem surge, he said: 'I don't believe they will get this level of increase in the General Election in Scotland.
'However, it shows Tony Blair that traditional Scottish Labour supporters are not happy with many of their policies.
'Some could be preparing for some level of protest vote whenever the election is.'
A Labour source said the findings were in tune with the Scottish party's own internal polling. He warned that support for Charles Kennedy could split the anti-Tory vote and knock out sitting Labour MPs.
The source added: 'That makes it more likely that Howard will get into No 10 through the back door.'
Lib Dem MSP Ian Smith said: 'More people across Scotland are recognising that we offer the only real alternative to Labour.
'The SNP are irrelevant at Westminster and the Tories are going nowhere.'
An SNP spokesman said: 'If the SNP fails to beat the Lib Dems and Tories, I promise to eat a copy of the Sunday Mail.'
Scottish Opinion interviewed 504 people by phone across Scotland from Tuesday to Friday.
| LABOUR | February | 48% | Now | 38% |
| LIBDEMS | February | 11% | Now | 23% |
| TORIES | February | 18% | Now | 15% |
| SNP | February | 20% | Now | 16% |
| GREENS | February | 1% | Now | 4% |
| SSP | February | 1% | Now | 2% |
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