 | 'It would be churlish to deny the Conservative party their part in our victory tonight.' Rt Hon Robin Cook MP, 2 nd May 1997. |  |
| 'It would be churlish to deny the Conservative party their part in our victory tonight.' Rt Hon Robin Cook MP, 2 nd May 1997. | |
A SNAP general election would confirm the Labour hold on Scottish politics and leave the Tories without a seat north of the Border, according to a survey released today.
Conducted by System Three, the survey is the first serious estimation of Scottish voting intentions to be published ahead of the general election expected this spring.
Its conclusions make un-fortunate reading for Tory leader Michael Howard and Shadow Scottish Secretary Peter Duncan, who is predicted to be the highest profile casualty in the battle for votes.
In a sample of just under 1000 adults in 41 constituencies, people were asked to name the party they would vote for in the event of an election at Westminster tomorrow.
Around 42% of respondents said they would vote Labour, down by 2% on the last general election, while 22% of voters said they would back the SNP, up 2% on the 2001 poll.
At the bottom end of the scale, 16% of interviewees opted for the Liberal Democrats, in line with their performance at the last general election, with the Tories polling the same amount, down 1% on 2001. The SSP tailed the pack with 3%.
If these percentage shares were applied to the new Westminster boundaries under the electoral calculus model, Labour would win 43 of the 59 seats north of the Border, with the LibDems coming second on seats with nine.
In third place would be the SNP with six, leaving the Conservatives and the SSP without an MP at Westminster representing a Scottish constituency. Speaker Michael Martin is also predicted to hold his Glasgow seat.
An additional factor to be considered is that this year's election will be the first fought on Scotland's new electoral map, with the number of seats being reduced from 72 to 59.
The polling will worry the Tories because Duncan had been expected to win Dumfries and Galloway, a key marginal. But according to the projections, the Conservatives' sole MP will lose to Labour's Russell Brown by around 1%.
Such an outcome would also have a bearing on David McLetchie's future, with some insiders predicting that a Tory wipeout in May could force a leadership contest within the Scottish party.
Duncan said last night that he didn't agree with the survey. ÒThis is the pollster that predicted the Conservatives would win 9% of the vote at the last Holyrood election, which we exceeded then, and which we will exceed again,Ó he said.
The SNP, on the other hand, will be content with the survey's findings. Although winning six seats is not a tremendous result for leader Alex Salmond, the data predicts that the Nationalists will win Dundee East as well as Ochil and South Perthshire from Labour, consolidating their first-past-the-post gains made at last year's Holyrood election.
But the biggest winner appears to be Labour, with the controversy surrounding Iraq and the tensions between Prime Minister Tony Blair and Chancellor Gordon Brown having little effect on their support in Scotland.
Despite the flurry of election activity, the UK poll promises to be an odd affair for Scotland because many of the issues set to dominate the campaign are devolved to Holyrood.
Unveiling Labour's pledge cards on Friday, McConnell dealt with policy areas such as knife crime that will only become relevant at the 2007 Scottish parliament election.
SNP leader Alex Salmond said the poll was a good start for his party's campaign. A spokesman for the Scottish Liberal Democrats said the findings demonstrated that the election provided another opportunity to kick out the Conservatives.
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