 | 'I know the Secretary of State very very well - because he's my father.' Beattie Media employee, Kevin Reid. |  |
| 'I know the Secretary of State very very well - because he's my father.' Beattie Media employee, Kevin Reid. | |
LABOUR has taken a 13-point lead over the SNP in the Holyrood election, according to an NFO System Three superpoll for The Herald.
The dramatic reversal in Labour's fortunes comes as the allies sweep to victory in Iraq, suggesting Tony Blair's part in the coalition has brought his party a significant war dividend. Polling was done over the five days immediately after historic TV images were shown of Saddam Hussein's statue being toppled in Baghdad.
Today's survey, the biggest of the election, shows Labour with a 13-point advantage in first voting for Holyrood after being level with the SNP in a previous poll a fortnight ago, and reversing the Nationalists' three-point lead in the list vote.
It suggests that while many Labour activists continue to oppose the war, victory in Iraq appears to have influenced ordinary voters. All the parties which opposed the war have lost support in the past fortnight, while Labour and the Conservatives have improved on recent poll positions.
This suggests that while the war has been a factor, Gordon Brown's budget last week was probably neutral in its impact.
On these findings, based on NFO System Three doubling its normal monthly sample to more than 2000 people, a second Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition beckons.
The share-out of seats in the next Scottish Parliament would be largely unchanged for Labour and the SNP, but the new chamber would contain more seats for the Greens and Scottish Socialists, and fewer Tories.
The war factor has brought Labour back to its 1999 position, on 39%, when it emerged as the largest party with 56 MSPs. While Labour would retain its share of seats, the Nationalists, now on 26%, would lose one, giving them 34 MSPs.
The Liberal Democrats would gain two seats, while the Tories would lose six list seats plus Ayr, the constituency they won in first-past-the-post voting in the 2000 by-election. Tommy Sheridan's Scottish Socialists have now slipped a point behind the unchanged Greens in the race for regional votes which decide list MSPs. The Greens would have four seats and the SSP three.
The new figures will disappoint the Nationalists, whose campaign had been going smoothly with Labour apparently unable to halt its own downward drift, largely blamed on the war. The poll has revealed a reversal of that trend and carries an echo of the SNP's sudden dip at this stage in the 1999 campaign: the equivalent superpoll then had the Nationalists suddenly 20 points behind Labour during the Kosovo bombing, although they quickly recovered half of their lost ground.
This time, the story is not so much a dip in SNP support, more a resurgence in the Labour vote.
While Jack McConnell will be delighted that his outspoken support for Mr Blair in the war appears to have helped Labour, he and his opponents will be alarmed at the prospect of a low turnout. NFO System Three found only 55% of respondents "certain" to vote.
Experience suggests this could mean a turnout of less than that figure. This would disappoint all parties, who have been pleading with the electorate to demonstrate an interest in the devolved parliament. The turnout four years ago was 59%, and the fear this time is that fewer than half of those eligible to vote will do so.
Mr Blair, who today gives his most wide-ranging interview of the campaign so far to The Herald, welcomed the findings. "The poll is encouraging, but the vital thing is that when it comes to election day, people vote. This is a crucial election for Scotland's future and it is very important that the Scottish people use their vote."
April 17 th
THE Scottish Parliament's mixed electoral system is about to throw up a mixed result, according to our superpoll today.
Little change is likely in the constituency element of the system, with possibly only one seat changing hands. The same faces will largely appear in the new parliament representing the 73 constituencies.
But change is certain on the regional lists, where the proportional element of the system kicks in. Short of a major upset, though, the overall result will be little change, with a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition emerging again.
This superpoll is good news for Labour. Labour needs to hold up its support in the constituencies, where it won 53 of its 56 MSPs last time, and the superpoll shows no change there for Labour.
The poll will be disappointing for the SNP. Although there is no evidence of the party being in "freefall", as suggested by the 20-point Labour lead over the Nationalists at this stage four years ago, neither is there any evidence of an SNP advance.
The 13-point difference between Labour and SNP in the constituencies increases Labour's lead by three points in the constituencies on the 1999 result. Unless local factors intrude, which do have a habit of happening in elections, the number of SNP- held constituency seats looks unlikely to change.
More worrying for the SNP are the regional list figures. Just as Labour's constituency share of the vote is holding up, so too is the SNP's list share of the vote. But the Nationalists are under much more pressure because the list vote is the proportional element, more sensitive to change, in the electoral system.
Labour can afford to lose more votes without losing seats in the constituencies than the SNP can in the lists. The SNP simply cannot afford slippage here unless it starts to pick up constituencies, which the superpoll suggests is not about to happen.
The SNP might end up as the largest party in half of Scotland's regions, but this will be little consolation. It is only under first-past-the-post used in the constituencies that the winner takes all.
The Labour-SNP gap on the list vote has narrowed, but this makes no difference to the share of seats. The important comparison on the list is with the proportion of vote each party won last time, and the SNP shows no movement here. The electoral system is working against the Nationalists.
The principal loser among the main parties is the Conservative Party. The Liberal Democrats are likely to confirm their position as Scotland's third party ahead of the Tories. But earlier dire warnings for the Tories that they might end up behind Tommy Sheridan's Scottish Socialist Party now look fanciful.
There is, however, little comfort for any of the multitude of "others" standing in this election, though past performance suggests that Dennis Canavan should be secure.
None of the parties can be complacent. With only a relatively low figure of 8% of voters undecided, minds already seem to be made up. But turnout may prove the key and the ability to get voters out crucial.
The proportion of electors who actually vote is rarely higher than the proportion saying they are certain to turn out, and only 55% of those polled say they are certain to do so.
The poll suggests that there is no significant difference in propensity to vote according to party supported. There is no evidence that Labour will have trouble getting its vote out, as compared with the SNP.
* James Mitchell is professor of government at the University of Strathclyde.
April 17 th 2003
War and Scottish Nationalism don't mix. That seems to be the message of our latest NFO System Three poll, which shows the SNP suddenly hit by a bunker-buster in the form of Labour's post Saddam-recovery.
Four years ago, the same thing happened after Alex Salmond denounced Nato's bombing of Yugoslavia as an 'unpardonable folly'.
Well, not quite the same. In 1999, the damage inflicted on the Nationalists was worse and there was, arguably, a case for saying they had asked for trouble by failing to 'back our boys' in Kosovo.
This time, though, the Nats have run a faultless campaign. They have outpaced Labour, whose effort so far has been attacked even by its own sympathisers in the media as uninspiring and negative. Just the SNP's bad luck that no one seems to have been paying the slightest attention.
Iraq has obliterated coverage of, and interest in, the Scottish election to the point that Tony Blair's adventure is now turning from a disaster - remember all those thousands of protesters - to a powerful vote winner.
What else but the war, where there is ample polling evidence of a major turnaround in public opinion, can explain this abrupt change in voting intentions?
Certainly not the budget, unless a few Labour voters found solace in not being noticeably stung.
When the SNP went much more sharply into freefall at this stage in 1999, Alex Salmond promptly announced a startling change in tactics, cancelling press conferences, denouncing the media, and setting up his own newspaper to go over the heads of a hostile press, straight to the voters.
I very much doubt there will be any such panic move this time. John Swinney knows there are two weeks left to make this election the close run think that beckoned until the breakthrough in Baghdad.
The Herald's superpoll is bad news for the Nationalists, only if they consider the percentage shift in party support. What really matters, of course, is how these figures translate to seats won or lost.
On these figures, there is no change to speak of, except for a possible lift for the Greens and Socialists mainly at the expense, it would seem, of the Tories.
In other words, Labour and the SNP are back to square one with everything to play for, although Labour can legitimately claim to be in the driving seat again as its share of the vote recovers.
Jack McConnell would have given his eye teeth a month ago for the election result now in prospect.
If times were normal and there was no war, a betting man would have put money on the SNP making inroads into Labour's share of seats.
Only if the war subsides and preoccupied electors become less impatient with domestic politics will this campaign truly come alive.
As of today, it is far from over. Indeed it could just be starting.
17 th April 2003.
Two weeks today, Scotland goes to the polls to elect its second parliament. The NFO System Three "superpoll" of voter intentions for The Herald, the first part of which is published today, suggests that Labour and the Liberal Democrats are on course to form the new administration, with the SNP returned as the major opposition party. The cynic might wonder what all the fuss is about and question the point in voting. Worryingly, and paradoxically, apathy could be a significant factor in the election. Only 55% of those polled say they are certain to vote. The proportion drops to 35% among 18-24-year-olds, the youngest age group and the one that has grown up with the parliament. It hardly amounts to a ringing endorsement of Holyrood and all it has achieved (or, perhaps more accurately, has not achieved) in its first four years.
War with Iraq has made this a phoney election. The "superpoll" suggests that phase might be over and that campaigning can turn to the important home-grown issues. Labour, registering 39% support on the first, constituency vote for the election, is almost back where it was in January, before Jack McConnell started paying a heavy price for supporting Tony Blair going to war without a UN resolution. Labour dropped nine points, while those parties that demanded a UN mandate before an attack, gained. Labour began making up ground when the war started going well quickly. Now that it is all but over (though winning the peace will probably be a different matter), Labour appears on the verge of returning to its old winning way (with the LibDems again in tandem).
Jack McConnell is benefiting from the Baghdad bounce. Canvassing for the "superpoll" began the day after the symbolic image of Saddam Hussein's statue being toppled was splashed across the newspapers. Voters are glad that he has gone and that the conflict is in its mopping-up phase. The feel-good factor is working for Labour. However, it does not mean that voters approve of the war. They might just be settling back into traditional voting patterns. That could be bad news for the SNP, now 13 points behind Labour in the constituency vote and trailing Mr McConnell by 3% in the second, list vote - the source of most nationalist seats. The war made it very difficult for the SNP to put its message across. With war fatigue perhaps setting in among the electorate, the SNP has the opportunity to show whether fiscal freedom and cutting business rates and corporation tax to boost growth can play well on the doorstep. It has made the running on the economy, and that worries Labour. This week, it brought out its biggest guns. First, the prime minister himself, then Gordon Brown. The chancellor yesterday led the economic counterattack in typically robust fashion.
There is a lot for all parties to play for, as the "superpoll" demonstrates. That also applies to those certain to exercise their voting right, with more than 10% saying that they are not yet committed to supporting a party. Let us hope that a captivating and positive culmination to the campaign, free of external clutter, delivers a big turnout in a fortnight. Democracy demands no less.
TWO of the SNP's most impressive shadow ministers, Michael Russell and Andrew Wilson, and Bill Aitken, the hard-working Glasgow Tory, will fail to win back their Holyrood seats, according to The Herald's superpoll.
The survey of 2000 voters conducted by NFO System Three suggests all three are in danger unless there is a change in their parties' fortunes in the final fortnight of the campaign.
The headline findings of the superpoll, published yesterday, showed Labour in an electoral comfort zone, with a 13% lead over the SNP on the constituency vote in the wake of the toppling of the regime in Iraq.
While only one seat was predicted to change hands, Labour taking Aberdeen South from the Liberal Democrats, the regional breakdown has a greater complexity.
If the latest poll is borne out, two of the biggest casualties will be the senior SNP MSPs. Michael Russell, shadow education minister in the last parliament, would be too far down his party's list in the south of Scotland to make it back to Holyrood.
The same applies to Andrew Wilson, the super-bright young economist who was made shadow enterprise minister. Without an upturn in SNP fortunes - and party strategists insist the aftermath of the Iraq war will bring that - he will not be in the Scottish Parliament to continue making that case.
If the SNP lose MSPs of that calibre, and take a backward step at constituency and list level, John Swinney's leadership will questioned.
The Herald poll also points to the Tories losing Mr Aitken, their sole Glasgow MSP.
Lord James Douglas-Hamilton could also fall victim to a declining Tory vote if the party loses a Lothian list seat, while David Mundell could lose out in the South.
Few Labour seats are threatened but, in the Highlands, Rhoda Grant could miss out.
The other clear picture emerging from the superpoll is that fringe parties, and single-issue and independent candidates, face an uphill struggle in spite of the new proportional voting system. Typically, across the country, as many as six or seven parties are vying for as little as 3% or 4% of the vote.
For example, in the Glasgow list vote, seven fringe parties are chasing a share of just 5% of the vote, according to the poll.
Dennis Canavan overcame that four years ago and looks likely to do so again, which will give some encouragement to Margo MacDonald in Lothians. But across the country it appears that the arrival of Greens and Socialists, creating a six-party system, may have closed the door on any future players gaining a place at the electoral table.
April 18th 2003
Highlands and Islands
THIS could be an area that sees a rare creature, a Conservative gain. The party's list representation could go up to three, which means David Petrie would join Jamie McGrigor and Mary Scanlon. The loser would be Labour's Rhoda Grant, number three on her party's list.
All of that assumes no constituency changes, but some seats in this region are such multi-way marginals that they are hard to predict, so Ms Grant will feel she may topple the SNP's Fergus Ewing in Inverness East, Nairn, and Lochaber should the Tories' or LibDems' share rise at his expense.
Alasdair Nicholson, SNP, will claim he has a chance against Labour's Alasdair Morrison in Western Isles, but not according to these figures, which have no seats changing hands. George Lyon of the LibDems will know he has been in a fight with SNP's Jim Mather in Argyll and Bute. Mr Mather is, in any case, certain to go to Holyrood as top of the party's list after Winnie Ewing and Duncan Hamilton's retirement. Rob Gibson is also Holyrood bound for the SNP, according to these figures.
West of Scotland
WHO says Scotland is a one-party state? It is in this part of the country, with all nine constituencies in the hands of Labour, including such leafy suburbs as Eastwood and Milngavie.
It bosses this region.
The biggest threatened change this time round from our poll is that the Tories would get only one list seat, instead of two. Annabel Goldie will be safe enough but, without an upturn in fortunes over the next two weeks, Murray Tosh may not get his chance to continue as a deputy presiding officer.
Few tears would be shed, since he promised to retire from the parliament, then switched regions from South to West after he got a taste for office, hoping to get the list seat of John Young, who has retired. Should he buck the current trend and get back to Holyrood, he may still find he is not a shoo-in for the presiding officer position.
The winners this time could be the LibDems, who would gain a list seat at the Tories' expense. This would mean Ross Finnie being joined by Eileen McCartin, a veteran party campaigner.
Glasgow
THE big casualty here would be Bill Aitken, the city's sole Tory, overtaken by Patrick Harvie of the Greens and pushed off the list.
However, the Conservative voters do tend to get out on the day, so it would be premature to write him off completely.
Although this poll has Labour winning all 10 Glasgow constituencies, that apparent strength is on less secure foundations than might at first appear, since the list vote standings are identical to the Scottish average, for both Labour on 30% and the SNP on 27%. The Nationalists look set to retain their four list MSPs, with Bill Kidd coming in for the departed Dorothy-Grace Elder.
Nicola Sturgeon will feel she has a chance of winning Govan from Gordon Jackson. Tommy Sheridan's list position is safe and, if the Scottish Socialists can improve on their 12% standing, he could even be joined by Rosie Kane, while Robert Brown has consolidated the position of the LibDems in the city. Seven fringe candidates appear to be battling over just 5% of the vote.
South of Scotland
ANOTHER big casualty if this poll is borne out would be Michael Russell, the SNP's education spokesman and former party chief executive, whose fourth place on the list would be one below the cut-off point unless there is an improvement in party fortunes in the final weeks of the campaign.
David Mundell, the bright businessman, could also be for the off if the Tory list is cut by one, to three. The victor would be the Scottish Socialist party's Rosemary Byrne, who would gain a seat.
Mr Russell will have been done in, not by the the electorate, but by the SNP's internal voting procedures. In the same way Margo MacDonald was pushed down the Lothian list, Mr Russell found himself out-manoeuvred in his local party hustings.
The SNP will revisit its procedures on this - now believing that one member, one vote would have been preferable to the delegate vote system - but if it costs the parliamentary group people of Mr Russell's calibre, there will be a price to pay in terms of the party's general credibility.
Lothian
THERE are two big stories here. David McLetchie, the Tory leader, is trying to unseat the "minister for tolls", as he calls his Labour opponent, Iain Gray, the enterprise spokesman, whose ministerial portfolio included transport and therefore the possibility of congestion charging.
But not only do the statistics suggest he will not succeed, they also indicate the Tories will not get a second MSP via the list, which would knock out Lord James Douglas-Hamilton.
Many hardened observers would regret the loss of Lord James. But stats are chiels that winna ding. On this poll, Labour gets eight seats, the LibDems hold Edinburgh West, and the Nats get four list members. Only David McLetchie gets in for the Tories, the LibDems gain a list seat - Mike Pringle - and the rest fight for the scraps.
Robin Harper of the Greens looks secure, but the Scottish Socialists are on the cusp. A lot may depend on Margo MacDonald, the former Nationalist stalwart. There are four individual independents plus seven fringe parties standing.
Central Scotland
UNLESS the SNP can recover from Labour's "Baghdad bounce", Holyrood is going to lose one of its brightest talents, Andrew Wilson, the party's enterprise spokesman.
On these figures (the Nationalists down to their lowest showing of any Scottish region, 23%, and Labour at its highest, 41%) the SNP would lose of one of its five regional members, and Mr Wilson lies fifth on the list, although he will not have given up hope of capturing the Cumbernauld and Kilsyth seat.
Four years ago, Dennis Canavan, the former Labour MP for Falkirk West, who stood as an independent, prevented his former party making a clean sweep of all 10 constituencies.
The highest percentage in Scotland (7%) say they would cast their second vote for "another candidate or party". Our poll has the Greens winning a seat and the Scottish Socialists falling short, but this could change if Canavan voters give the SSP their second vote. Margaret Mitchell, an experienced Tory campaigner, looks a safe bet, while Donald Gorrie is set to return for the LibDems.
Mid Scotland and Fife
The raw statistics here suggest no change at either constituency or regional list level, but the parties don't agree. The Tories insist they can recapture the SNP seats of either North Tayside or Perth.
The problem is that it is difficult to see either the leader or deputy leader of the SNP losing their seat. Stirling became an interesting seat when it became the symbolic battleground where Labour felt the need to punish Michael Forsyth. Now it is just another seat that the Tories have no chance of winning and the SNP has yet to mount a real onslaught.
All of which leaves Ochil and Central Fife, home to two Labour politicians who got things horribly wrong. In Ochil, an SNP target, Labour's Richard Simpson, famously attacked striking firemen as "fascist bastards". George Reid is also an impressive SNP candidate. There is also the Henry McLeish factor. The former first minister resigned over an expenses scandal which involved the local council, led by Christine May, his successor as candidate.
North East of Scotland
THIS is a potential disaster zone for the Conservatives. On our latest poll findings they would get no constituency seats, and would slide from three additional member seats to one, leaving only David Davidson.
The loss of Alex Johnstone would be a hammer blow, while the third place, occupied by Ben Wallace, has in effect been surrendered by his decision to abandon Holyrood for an English seat. That the Tories could be reduced to 9% in the North-east will be greeted with bewilderment by party strategists.
Nor is the news good for LibDems, with this poll indicating Nicol Stephen losing his seat to Labour. He will be back anyway, courtesy of his number one place on the list, but no-one should underestimate the impact on coalition negotiations if an existing minister enters them from the position of having lost his constituency.
The SNP could lose one of its four regional list seats, which would mean Alasdair Allan not making it to Holyrood without an upturn in fortunes. However, no-one in Labour expects to hold both Dundee seats.
- April 18th 2003
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