 | 'I know the Secretary of State very very well - because he's my father.' Beattie Media employee, Kevin Reid. |  |
| 'I know the Secretary of State very very well - because he's my father.' Beattie Media employee, Kevin Reid. | |
LABOUR is still being damaged by Tony Blair's hard line on Iraq, according to the latest NFO System Three opinion poll.
The survey for The Herald suggests the prime minister's "moral" justification for disarming Saddam Hussein by force, with or without the UN's blessing, has not shifted Scottish public opinion.
For the second time in a month, System Three found overwhelming opposition to war unless supported by the UN Security Council. Even then, only 56% backed Mr Blair, a point down on last month.
Those favouring war regardless of the UN were 15% (13% a month ago) and those opposed to war under any circumstances were 26% (27% a month ago). The poll also shows the SNP in its best pre-election position for a generation - only two points behind Labour in the first vote for Holyrood, and level on the second.
For the first time, Tommy Sheridan's Scottish Socialists have reached double figures in second vote intentions, putting them level with the Tories and set to make significant gains.
The news will delight the SNP, which meets for its pre-election conference today at Lomond Shores, and depress the Tories, who meet in Glasgow stuck on 10% in each vote and likely to lose seats.
TONY Blair's "moral" argument in the past month justifying war against Iraq has failed to change Scottish public opinion, according to NFO System Three's latest opinion survey, exclusive to The Herald.
The poll shows Labour still damaged by the Iraq question and only two points ahead of the Nationalists in first-vote intentions while tied in the regional list vote. For the first time, Tommy Sheridan's anti-war Scottish Socialists have hit double figures and caught the Tories in list voting.
Mr Sheridan's party - the most implacably anti-war of all - has reached 10% in the second vote. When this is translated to notional Holyrood seats by the independent Electoral Reform Services, the Socialists would have 10 MSPs, only one fewer than the flatlining Tories.
For the second time in a month, System Three tested public opinion about the war and found resistance to the prime minister's line holding firm. Only 15% of Scots voters believe Britain should take military action against Saddam Hussein without UN backing, and 26% say the UK should take no action under any circumstances.
A majority 56% (57% last month) agreed Britain should take military action if it was backed by a second UN resolution.
Mr Blair has spent the month since the last poll trying to persuade voters across the UK he has a moral case for forcibly disarming Saddam, with or without UN backing, and he seems about to pay an electoral price in Scotland. If, as now seems likely, he cannot muster clear UN backing for war, he could face a further upsurge of opposition just when the Nationalists are in their strongest pre-election position for a generation.
Labour's only comfort after its slump in popularity last month is that it still leads, narrowly, the SNP with eight weeks to the election. But they will be crucial weeks in which Mr Blair needs a quick, clean, and successful war to have much hope of regaining all his lost ground.
Labour is up two points on 34% and the SNP up one point on 32% in first voting, and the parties are dead level on 27% in second voting, suggesting the Nationalists' dream of a breakthrough is not yet realised. On this showing both Labour and the SNP would lose seats and the minority parties would gain.
Mr Sheridan's support has jumped in second voting by three points to 10%, a record for the Socialists. All the findings are within the allowed margin for error.
On these figures the next Scottish Parliament would be composed of 48 Labour MSPs, 34 Nationalists, 21 Liberal Democrats, 11 Tories, 10 Socialists, four Greens, and one independent (Dennis Canavan). This would make it mathematically possible for the SNP and LibDems to head an anti-Labour rainbow coalition.
The figures demonstrate the volatile potential in the additional member system of voting. The LibDems, two points down in both votes to 14% and 15% respectively, would still gain four seats, enough to prompt demands for another department in a second Labour-LibDem coalition.
Labour would remain the largest party, dependent again on the LibDems as partners in government but would lose eight seats to the SNP while gaining one from the Nationalists, who would in turn take one from the LibDems.
For the Tories the news remains depressing. Although they complain System Three always underestimates Tory support - mainly because of some electors' reluctance to admit voting Tory - they do appear unable to get off the ground.
On this showing their current crop of 19 MSPs could be cut by more than half. The figures suggest all the Tory and SSP MSPs would come from the regional lists and that the Tories would lose their only existing constituency of Ayr.
In Westminster voting intentions the Tories were up two points to 12% and the Socialists up three to 4%. Labour was on 42%, the SNP 25%, and the LibDems 15%, all unchanged.
System Three canvassed 1033 people aged over 18 across 52 constituencies from February 27 to March 5.
Opposing George W Bush might be unpopular in the United States, but the latest System Three NFO poll for The Herald, published today, suggests there is potentially more to be gained than lost by being implacably anti-war. The Scottish Socialist Party has made opposition to war one of six key election pledges. Voters would probably find great difficulty naming the other five, but they know where Mr Sheridan's party stands on Iraq. In addition, they seem to approve.
That has to be the most likely explanation for the SSP setting records in the new poll. For the first time it has reached double figures, securing the support of 10% of the electorate in the second, list vote for the Scottish Parliament elections. That puts it on a par with the Conservatives. In Glasgow, the SSP heartland, the figure rises to 22%, just behind the SNP. Glasgow has been an entrenched Labour stronghold, but the party is only 8% ahead of the SSP in the city. Across Scotland, the poll shows the SSP scoring 6% in the initial, first-past-the-post vote. The poll suggests the party would win 10 seats in the May elections, though that is unlikely. Half this number would still be a remarkable achievement. If the SSP were the big winner, Labour would be the big loser. The poll confirms that the collapse in the Labour vote last month was no blip.
In February Labour polled 32% in the first vote and 28% in the second. Today, support stands respectively at 34% and 27%. Tony Blair has spent the intervening period arguing the case for a likely war. It has won very few over in Scotland. If he goes to war alongside Mr Bush without a second resolution and defying one veto or more in the UN security council (as he suggested he would yesterday), Labour would pay a heavy price at the polls in May. There is clearly a major, anti-war factor at work in Scottish politics. It is working to Mr Sheridan's advantage more than any other party's. Yet, compared with last month, there is little difference in the percentage of Scots who, like Mr Sheridan, do not believe in war under any circumstances (it has fallen from 27% to 26%). The proportion of those backing military action regardless of the UN has risen marginally to 15% while 55% believe it should be sanctioned only by UN resolution (up 1%). The new poll suggests other factors are at play to explain the rise in the SSP's popularity.
Mr Sheridan is a charismatic politician who has built a reputation on fighting for the underdog. He has taken up principled popular causes in the Scottish Parliament, such as free school meals and the abolition of warrant sales. His brand of old-style socialism is anti-business and would probably damage the Scottish economy. However, he appears an attractive option when people feel powerless and are disillusioned with the mainstream political process. A growing number of people feel that way, with the prime minister seemingly prepared to ignore their concerns (shared by the majority) over Iraq.
A dull Scottish election campaign would suit Labour, but it would do little to stem the rising tide of apathy. Paradoxically, a Labour prime minister will probably ensure a higher turnout than first feared, due to his unpopular stance on Iraq. Mr Blair's party in Scotland will not be the beneficiary. The SNP might be, although John Swinney, its leader, has failed to capture the public imagination in the way of Mr Sheridan. Labour's prospects will be damaged unless the prime minister abides by the will of the UN - and starts listening to the Scottish people.
Return to home page