 | 'I know the Secretary of State very very well - because he's my father.' Beattie Media employee, Kevin Reid. |  |
| 'I know the Secretary of State very very well - because he's my father.' Beattie Media employee, Kevin Reid. | |
LABOUR'S popularity in Scotland is collapsing because of Tony Blair's tough line on Iraq, according to an opinion poll conducted exclusively for The Herald.
NFO System Three found nationwide hostility to a war against Saddam Hussein
without clear UN backing - and a sudden eight-point drop in support for
Labour in the latest monthly opinion poll.
Such a showing in the Scottish elections in May would make it mathematically
possible for the SNP and Liberal Democrats to oust Labour from government
and form a coalition with minority party backing.
The poll results have serious implications for Mr Blair, who is expected to
address the UK party's spring conference in Glasgow, which starts on Friday.
On Westminster voting intentions, the poll shows a 3% slide for Labour.
It suggests Labour will suffer heavy collateral damage if Britain goes to
war and Jack McConnell is forced to fight a desperate rearguard battle in
the Scottish elections while his support dwindles because of events he is
powerless to change.
The Holyrood elections will be Britain's first major electoral test since
the Westminster general election, and System Three's findings suggest the
result could benefit Labour's rivals by widespread anti-war sentiment.
According to System Three, only 13% of Scots voters agree that Britain
should take part in a war against Iraq regardless of whether the UN supports
military action. A further 27% said Britain should not take part in military
action under any circumstances.
The only comfort for Labour and Mr Blair is the finding that 57% agree that
Britain should take part in military action if it is supported by a UN
security resolution.
The corrosive effect electorally of such resistance to Mr Blair's hard line
was revealed in System Three's monthly poll across Scotland, where Labour
has dropped from being 10 points ahead of the SNP in the constituencies to
only one in the space of a month. This gives the SNP its best showing for
two years - enough to give the Nationalists gains in Holyrood by knocking
over almost a dozen Labour seats in the constituencies.
When the Electoral Reform Ballot Services translated the findings in
Holyrood voting intentions to notional seats in the Scottish Parliament,
Labour's presence drops from 56 seats in 1999 to 47, while the SNP's
increases from 35 to 38. This means that although Labour still emerged as
the largest party, nine seats ahead of the SNP, it was more dependent than
ever on the LibDems to form a government. If the collapse in Labour support
became a pattern in the coming weeks then the election would be thrown wide
open.
Responses to questions on Iraq clearly showed Scotsmen more hawkish than
women, but still overwhelmingly opposed to unilateral British action of the
kind Mr Blair refuses to rule out.
Among men, there was 62% agreement on military action with UN backing, but
only 52% among women. Those opposed to war under any circumstances were 19%
of men but 35% of women. Of those agreeing that Britain should 'go to war
regardless of the UN, 17% were men but only 9% were women.
The government's "integrity" on media presentation was called into serious
question when it emerged that a No 10 "intelligence" dossier against Saddam
had been largely lifted - complete with typographical errors - from a
student's thesis based on 12-year-old data.
Mr Blair's spokesman conceded a mistake had been made in failing to
acknowledge the report had borrowed heavily from a paper by American student
Ibrahim al Marashi.
However, he stressed the evidence remained "solid" and that the embarrassing
episode did "not throw into question the accuracy of the document as a
whole".
Labour's Tony Wright, chairman of the Commons public administration
committee, whose inquiry into government spin coincidentally begins next
week, was scathing about No 10's media operation.
"It's such an appalling thing to have happened. It breaks every rule of
integrity in public communications."
NFO System 3
This poll was taken among 1009 people in 51 constituencies between January
30 and February 6, 2003.
Holyrood Poll 1st Vote
Party/Vote Now/% Change
Scottish Labour Party / 32% / -8%
Scottish National Party / 31% / +1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats / 16% / +3%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party / 11% / +1%
Scottish Socialist Party / 5% / +1%
Scottish Green Party / 3% / +1%
Others / 2% / +1%
Holyrood Poll 2nd Vote
Party/Vote Now/% Change
Scottish Labour Party / 28% / -1%
Scottish National Party / 28% / -3%
Scottish Liberal Democrats / 17% / +2%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party / 10% / No Change
Scottish Socialist Party / 7% / + No Change
Scottish Green Party / 6% / +1%
Others / 4% / +1%
- Feb 8 th 2003
The Herald does not put it's Saturday edition on line. The above was transcribed and proofed by Eddie Truman
Labour's support in Scotland is being severely erroded by Tony Blair's policy on Iraq which now threatens to cripple his party's campaign in the Holyrood elections, according to the latest NFO System 3 opinion poll.
The survey, exclusive to the Herald, suggests that if the Scottish general election was held tomorrow Labour would lose eight seats and the SNP would gain three, putting the Nationalists in a position to govern Scotland with Liberal Democrat and minority party support.
Although that outcome is unlikely, given the Lib Dems' well-known reluctance to form a coalition with the SNP, the poll is a stark pointer to the unpopularity of Mr Blair's stance on Iraq - and it could get much worse if a war against Saddam Hussein was to go badly for the prime minister.
With war possibly weeks away and the Scottish elections on May 1, there is a growing likelihood that Labour will be forced to fight a campaign bedevilled by a vocal backlash against Mr Balir's policy.
The signs are deeply alarming for Labour with System Three finding overwhilming hostility to Mr Blair's intentionto attack Saddam Hussein, if necessary without the blessing of the UN SEcurity Council.
Onmy 13 % of Scottish voters backed the prime minister's stance on that policy. More than a quarter of Scots said Britain should not take part in military action under any circumstances.
But support for Mr Balir jumped for a clear majority of 57 % when voters were asked if they would support Briatin attacking Iraq with UN backing.
These figures will be met with dismay - although probably not with great surprise - by Jack McConnell, first minister, as he continues to plan Labour's election campaign. With no power to change events in London, Mr McConnell will be praying for either no war, or or if there must be a military campaign, a quick and clean one. As the anti-war movement becomes noisier by the day, Labou's task becomes more difficult. Between now and May 1 the polls could become even more alarming for the first minister.
System Three suggests that while Labour's is haemorrhaging support the other parties are gaining only by default. Indeed, although the Nationalists are now only a single point behind in first votes intentions - their best showing in the constituencies since February, 2001 - they have progressed only by a single point in a month and have dropped three points in the crucial regional lists where they now stand dead level with Labour.
When System Three's findings are translated by the independent Electoral Reform Ballot Services into notional seats in the Scottish Parliament, Labour's presence drops from 56 seats in 1999 to 47, while the SNP's increases to 38 from 35.
The Lib Dems would have 22 MSPs compared with 17 last time and would still be favourites to join Labour in a coalition.
However, the mathematics are becoming steadily more interesting as anti-war sentiment makes itself felt. Until recently, most observers had written off the election as a foregone conclusion because of Labour's stranglehold in the constituencies where it won 53 of its 56 seats last time.
This time, on these figures, Labour would lose 12 constituency seats, all of them to the SNP except for one (Aberdeen Central) to the Lib Dems. Labour woulkd emerge with six from the lists which provided only three in 1999.
Labour and the Lib Dems would remain the most likely partnership with a comfortable working majority. Yet if there was disagreement over the terms of a partnership deal, the SNP could exploit it by offering to govern with the Lib Dems.
Between them the Nationalists and LibDems would muster 60 MSPs. Another 11 would come from the minorities, on these findings, giving a total of 71 and and overall majority of six.
Labour's trouble are good news for all the other parties except the Tories, who continue to flatline. Their support of 11% and 10% in first and second votes would provide them with only 11 MSPs, all from the party lists, meaning they would lose eight seats including Ayr, their only constituency.
On these findings Holyroods minority parties would take 11 seats (four Greens, six for Tommy Sheridan's SSP, and Dennis Canavan, the sole independent elected last time.)
In Westminster voting, the news is better for Labour whose support is down only three points to 42 %, still comfortably ahead of the SNP which is up a point to 25 %, with the Tories up two points to 14 %and the LibDems up one to 15%.
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