 | 'I don't think anybody should get hung up on the distinction between suspension and expulsion, it's a
semantic distinction.' Foreign Secretary Robin Cook, 22 nd October 1997. (Talking, not about Labour Councillors, but about Nigeria's membership of the Commonwealth) |  |
 | Ian Blackford |  | Douglas Alexander |
 | Shiela Laidlaw |  | Cllr Eileen McCartin |
 | Frances Curran |  | John Deighan |
 | Kenneth Blair | Socialist Labour | Chris Herriot |
| Scottish Independent Labour, Justified and Ancient | Charles McLauchlan | ||
Paisley South includes Elderslie, the birthplace of Sir William Wallace, Guardian of Scotland. The Wallaces probably came from Shropshire in the twelfth century and gained land in the parish of Paisley under the patronage of the High Stewards, who were later to become Kings of Scots. Although Labour candidate Douglas Alexander saw fit to visit Elderslie on 21 st October, the biggest factor in this by-election is likely to be, not the 'Braveheart factor' but the 'sleaze factor', as Labour's running of Renfrewshire Council and the alleged smear campaign directed against previous MP Gordon McMaster, who committed suicide, comes under the microscope.
In 1983, the town of Paisley was divided between two seats, Paisley North and South. The new Paisley South seat consisted of 61 % from Paisley, 30% from Renfrewshire West and 9% from Renfrewshire East. In the review for the 1997 general election, the boundary changes between Paisley North and South were minor.
Paisley, Scotland's largest town, is a once proud industrial centre fallen on hard times. Mills that once produced the world-famous 'Paisley pattern' now stand closed along with the former Talbot plant at Linwood. The new South seat includes the south of Paisley and the town of Johnson.
The present by-election is the third in Paisley since 1990, and the fifth since 1948. All were won by Labour who have held Paisley almost uninterrupted since 1945 despite strong challenges from the Liberals in the 1960s and Scottish National Party in the 1970s.
Liberal candidate John (later Lord) Bannerman, the father of Lib Dem MP Ray Mitchie, almost won the 1961 by-election, taking 41.4% of the vote to 45.4% for Labour's John Robertson, who was to represent the seat until 1979.
The Liberals kept up the pressure on Labour in the 1964 general election but their percentage vote had fallen back to single figures by the 1970s. By then the SNP were the main challengers to Labour.
When Mrs Margo MacDonald fought Paisley in the 1970 general election the SNP took only 7.3% of the vote. In February 1974, David Rollo increased this to 21.3 % and in October to 33.1 %, cutting John Robertson's majority to 5,590.
Ironically, the only interregnum in Labour's rule, between 1976 and 1979, was caused not by the loss of the seat in an election, but by the defection of the sitting Labour member. In 1979, John Robertson became exasperated with then Labour Government backing down on its devolution promises and defected along with Jim Sillars to form the short-lived Scottish Labour Party.
The 1979 General election saw the SLP lose its two seats. In Ayrshire South, Jim Sillars lost to the official Labour candidate by only 1,521 votes. Mr Robertson had decided not stand in 1979, retiring after representing Paisley for 18 years. Paisley was regained for Labour by Allen Adams with the Scottish Labour Party's Brian Monaghan in third place behind the Tories.
In 1983 Paisley was divided between the new seats of Paisley North and Paisley South. A third of the new Paisley South seat came from the massive Renfrewshire West constituency which Labour's Norman Buchan had won from the Conservatives in 1964. In the review for the 1983 general election, Renfrewshire West was reduced in size and renamed Renfrew West and Inverclyde. The new seat looked marginal and Mr Buchan preferred to contest Paisley South. It was a wise move as Renfrew West and Inverclyde was won by Mrs Anna McCurley for the Conservatives, with the Labour candidate coming third behind the SDP in an extremely closely fought contest.
Norman Buchan was elected as Labour MP for Paisley South in 1983 with a 6,529 majority over Liberal Mrs Elspeth Buchanan.
In 1987 there was a massive 11.9% swing from the Liberals to Labour and Norman Buchan saw his majority rocket to 15,785.
Mr Buchan died in 1990 as did Mr Allen Adams, the MP for Paisley North. Labour held the by-elections on the same day, the 29 th November and the campaigns were fought as a unique double by-election. Although the SNP had come fourth in 1987, Jim Sillar's victory at Glasgow Govan and Alex Neil's 15% swing in Glasgow Central had ensured that the SNP were the main challengers to Labour. The SNP's Iain Lawson obtained an 11.8% swing from Labour to the SNP, but it was not nearly enough and Gordon McMaster became the new Labour MP for Paisley South with a majority of 5,030.
Mr McMaster increased his majority to 9,549 in the 1992 General election when he again faced Iain Lawson and on the 1 st of May he took 57.5 % of the vote, giving him a 12,750 majority over the SNP's Cllr Bill Martin.
The present by-election was caused by the premature death of Gordon McMaster at 37 years old. Mr McMaster was a Labour whip the last parliament and was previously the leader of Renfrew District Council. He was well known and respected in the constituency, especially in his native Johnson, and will be a difficult man to succeed.
Mr McMaster was apparently a net surfer as last year the Dundee Courier reported that he had found these Scottish Politics Pages through a link from the SNP's home page. At a press conference on August 19 th 1996, along with John Maxton, MP for Glasgow Cathcart, Mr McMaster claimed that the predictions in these pages were 'a great embarrassment to the SNP and revealed the truth about the party's expectations for the General Election!' (See also Jack McConnell's press conference).
The Labour candidate is rising star Douglas Alexander, a 30 year old Edinburgh Lawyer and protegee of Gordon Brown, the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Mr Alexander gave Labour their best Scottish by-election result in his own life time when he increased their vote by 10.5% in the 1995 Perth & Kinross by-election. Unfortunately, Labour made a tactical error in claiming that they were going to win Perth & Kinross. This resulted in Douglas Alexander's remarkable achievement looking more like a failure than a success. Douglas Alexander won the Labour nomination for Paisley South by an overwhelming margin over Margaret McCulloch, a former Lothian regional councillor. Another favourite, Pat McFadden, one of the Prime Minister's advisers, withdrew from the contest after the intervention of Tony Blair, and other candidates, including Gordon Jackson QC, had dropped out.
The SNP standard bearer for the by-election is also in his thirties and from Edinburgh. Ian Blackford was unanamously adopted by Paisley South SNP in a contest with broadcaster Alex Bell after Renfrewshire Council SNP group leader Bruce McFee decided to withdraw. Mr Blackford is managing director of Nat West Securities Scotland and stood for Ayr at the general election in May. Married with three children, Mr Blackford joined the SNP in 1978 and became National Treasurer of the Young Student Nationalists. He has also been organiser for the Edinburgh District Association, served as assistant to Jim Sillars and is currently Chairman of the SNP's Currency Commission.
The Liberal Democrats have selected Cllr Eileen McCartin, the leader of the three-strong Liberal Democrat group on Renfrewshire Council. Cllr McCartin contested the seat for the Liberal Democrats in May and took third place with 9.37%, 267 votes ahead of the Conservatives.
The Tories have chosen Shiela Laidlaw, who has lived in Paisley for 37 years as their candidate.
The Scottish Socialist Alliance candidate is 36 year old Frances Curran, a community activist.
At present there is a war being waged in Paisley at local government level. This may be a legacy from Renfrew District Council where a Labour councillor allied himself with the opposition in order to be made provost. In the new Refrewshire Council elections in 1995, Labour took 45.9% of the vote to the SNP's 38.5%. In January 1997, the 20 opposition councillors in Renfrewshire united against the 20-strong ruling Labour administration in an attempt to remove from office Labour Provost Nancy Allison, following allegations of anti-democratic practices by the Labour administration. It would be unfortunate if the current war at local level and the allegations of a smear campaign directed against Mr McMaster and other MPs cloud the by-election campaign in the same way as 'Monklandsgate' dominated Monklands East by-election in 1994.
In normal circumstances, the new Labour government should have no problems in holding on to this safe seat. However, there are signs that Tony Blair's honeymoon period may be over. Labour pulled out all the stops in the Uxbridge by-election on 31 st July and yet the Tories increased their majority from 724 to 3,766. The result was described as a slap in the face for Tony Blair, who had broken with tradition to campaign in the by-election - the first Prime Minister to do so in over 20 years.
Labour is also experiencing difficulties with the unions, with their Govan MP, with their Foreign Secretary's private life and with Peter Mendelson's attempts to smear the ex-Governor of Hong Kong, Chris Patten. They will be looking to retain Paisley South with a sizeable majority in order to demonstrate that these are merely teething troubles and that they have the full support of the Scottish people for their devolution plans.
For the Conservatives, increasing their vote will be critical in order to prove that they have not become a mere irrelevant side show on the Scottish Political scene with no MPs, no MEPs and no local authorities under their control.
The Liberal Democrats will be looking to increase their vote here, but they are unlikely to repeat the Liberals 1961 by-election performance where they came close to winning the then Paisley seat. Since then their vote has declined and even in the Alliance heyday of 1983, they took less than 25% of the vote here.
The most likely challengers are the Scottish National Party. But even the SNP by-election bandwagon machinery may face an uphill struggle to overturn Mr McMaster's 12,750 majority. Much will depend on the campaign, the political aspirations of Scots after the successful devolution referendum, the results of Labour's enquiries into allegations of smear campaigns against Mr McMaster and other MPs and whether the government, at present riding high in the polls, can stop making serious gaffes. Campaigning has now started, and Paisley South looks set to be turn into a Monklands East mark II.
Prediction: Should be a comfortable Labour seat but the SNP challenge can not be underestimated. Various political comentators are now (4/11/97) predicting a Labour hold on a low turnout.
| Logo | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | Ian Blackford | 12,609 | 42.2 % |
| Labour | Douglas Alexander | 11,742 | 39.3 % |
| Conservative | Shiela Lawson | 2,659 | 8.9 % |
| Liberal Democrat | Cllr Eileen McCartin | 2,211 | 7.4 % |
| Scottish Socialist Alliance | Frances Curran | 657 | 2.2 % |
| SNP gain from Lab | SNP majority | 867 | 2.9 % |
| Logo | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour/Co-op | Gordon McMaster | 21,482 | 57.51% |
| Scottish National Party | Cllr Bill Martin | 8,732 | 23.38% |
| Liberal Democrat | Cllr Eileen McCartin | 3,500 | 9.37% |
| Conservative | Robert Reid | 3,237 | 8.67% |
 | Referendum | James Lardner | 254 | 0.68% |
| Scottish Socialist Alliance | Sean Clerkin | 146 | 0.39% |
| Lab hold | Lab majority | 12,750 | 34.13% |
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