Westminster Target Seats

'The Tories are now in serious danger of failing to win a Scottish seat in two consecutive general elections.' Malcolm Dickson in the Herald, 15 th January 2001.

The Conservative & Unionist Party

By Iain Old

The Tories, in one form or another, had been around for longer than any other party in Scotland. The first Tory to become Prime Minister was John Stuart, Earl of Bute in 1762, and despite being at times the third party of Scottish politics, they continued to govern Scotland until as recently as May 1997. In the 1997 Westminster election, the Conservatives lost their ten remaining Scottish seats. They had never before failed to win a single seat in Scotland.

Until 1997, only one cabinet minister had been defeated in Scotland - Gordon Campbell, the Conservative Secretary of State for Scotland who was defeated by Winnie Ewing in Moray & Nairn in February 1974. In 1997, there were no less than three casualties: Michael Forsyth, the Secretary of State for Scotland (now Lord Forsyth of Drumlean), Ian Lang, the President of the Board of Trade (now Lord Lang of Monkton) and Malcolm Rifkind, the Secretary of State for Foreign & Commonwealth affairs (now Sir Malcolm Rifkind).

The last time the Tories suffered a similar defeat was way back in 1832. This was after they had opposed the first reform bill which increased the number of voters in Scotland from about 4,500 to 65,000. The Tory opposition led to great resentment in Scotland and the 'Tory' label was seen as a great liability - as in the 1999 council elections when many Conservative candidates omitted their party's name from their campaign posters.

Tories were forced to adopt pro-reform candidates in order to be electable and in 1835 the Scottish Conservative Association was formed. There was no immediate Conservative revival, however, and until 1886, Scotland was a vitrual one-party state, dominated by the Liberals. In the Scottish burghs, the Tories only won a total of seven seats in the nine general elections between 1832 and 1868, and had no burgh MPs in 1857, 1859 and 1865. Glasgow, for example, only once had a Conservative MP between 1832 and 1886.

Following Gladstone's espousal of Irish Home rule, there was a split in the Liberal Party. The Conservatives supported the Union with Ireland and gradually regained ground which they had lost to the Liberals in Scotland. In 1912, the Conservatives merged with the Liberal Unionists and the party in Scotland was known as the 'Scottish Unionist Association' until 1965, although some candidates, particularly in the Highlands, still ran under a 'Liberal Unionist' or 'National Liberal' ticket.

In 1895, the Liberal dominance in Scotland was severely threatened with their lead reduced to just eight seats. In 1900, the Conservatives and their Liberal Unionist allies won their first ever majority since the Reform Act of 1832, taking 38 of the Scottish seats. They slumped back in 1906 when they won just 12 seats compared to 58 for the Liberals and two for Labour, but by 1918 the Unionists won 32 seats compared to 34 for the Liberals and seven for Labour.

In 1924, the Conservatives again won a majority, taking 37 seats compared to 26 Labour, one Communist and 9 Liberals and in 1931 they obtained their best ever result in Scotland, taking 58 seats compared to 8 Liberals and 7 Labour.

Post 1945, the Tories are the only party ever to obtain more than half the popular vote in Scotland - 50.1 % - in 1955, and they have been in decline since then. They held a majority of the Scottish seats (36 out of 71 in 1955), but by 1964 this had dropped to 24 and by October 1974, following gains by the SNP, they only had 16 MPs. In 1979 they recovered, taking 22 seats, but by 1987, this was cut to just 10. After a slight revival in 1992 when they gained a seat from Labour, the Conservatives were finally wiped out in 1997.

On current System 3 opinion poll ratings, Malcolm Dickson predicts that the Conservatives may not win a single seat in Scotland. However, Conservatives point out that their voters tend to turn out and they hope to make gains.

While the following list may suggest otherwise, the Tories best hopes could well be in three Labour-held seats where ex-Conservative MPs are standing. Eastwood was the Tories' safest Scottish seat until Allan Stewart unexpectedly resigned as Tory candidate in 1997. Their new candidate is Raymond Robertson, MP for Aberdeen South from 1992 until 1997.

Another constituency where the Tories have high hopes is Ayr, which they won in a Scottish Parliamentary by-election. The seat was held from 1964 until 1992 by George Younger whose majority in 1987 was just 182. In 1992 Phil Gallie unexpectedly held the seat by 85 votes, but lost it in 1997 after unfavourable boundary changes, by 6,543 votes. However, in the 1999 Scottish parliamentray elections, Phil Gallie came within just 25 votes of winning back Ayr. In the 2000 by-election the Scottish seat was won by Tory John Reid with Labour pushed into a poor third place by the SNP. Phil Gallie will be standing again in Ayr at the Westminster election.

In Edinburgh Pentlands Sir Malcolm Rifkind will be standing again. He is the only one of the three defeated Cabinet Ministers not to accept a peerage and should he be elected is seen as an extremely strong contender for Tory leader.

On paper, Aberdeenshire West in the Conservatives' best hope and Lib Dem Sir Robert Smith cannot be confident of being re-elected without a fight. Aberdeen South is another possibility, however the seat is now a three-way marginal held by Labour at Westminster and the Lib Dems at Edinburgh.

Tweedale, Ettrick & Lauderdale is now a four-way marginal and has not been held by the Tories since they lost the 1965 Roxburgh, Selkirk & Peebles by-election which was won by David Steel.

Moray, Perth, Galloway & Upper Nithsdale, and Tayside North are all seats which the Tories lost to the SNP - Moray in 1987, Perth at the 1995 by-elections and the two others in 1997. The Tories will be hopeful as Margaret Ewing, Roseanna Cunninghame, Alasdair Morgan and John Swinney are all retiring to the Mound, as is Andrew Welsh in Angus. However, these seats may prove tough for the Conservatives to make a mark on with the SNP the only party up in the polls since 1997 while the Conservatives are well down.

In 1997, Labour's election theme was D-REAM's 'Things can only get better.' This song certainly now applies to the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party.

Scottish Conservative Target List for Election 2001

By Harry Hayfield

The following list is the list of Conservative Targets in Scotland for the General Election expected to be held on May 3 rd 2001. The table is sorted by % swing and signifies what seats would go to the Conservatives on an increasing swing.

As a guideline, if all the seats up to Ayr go Conservative, then Labour still have an overall majority in the House of Commons. If Gordon goes Conservative, then Labour are the largest party in a hung parliament. If Dumfries goes, then the Conservatives are the largest party, and if Argyll and Bute goes then William Hague is Prime Minister.

Number of target	Name of target	Winning Party in 1997	Winning Majority in 1997	% Swing Needed	Winning Party in 2001	Winning Majority in 2001
1	Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine		2,662	3.1 %		4,821
2	Eastwood		3,236	3.1 %		9,141
3	Perth		3,141	3.5 %
4	Aberdeen South		3,365	4.4 %
5	Tweedale,Ettrick and Lauderdale		1,489	4.6 %
6	TaysideNorth		4,160	4.6%
7	Edinburgh,Pentlands		4,862	5.3%
8	Gallowayand Upper Nithsdale		5,624	6.7%
9	Moray		5,566	7.0%
10	Ayr		6,543	7.3%
11	Stirling		6,411	7.5%
12	EdinburghWest		7,253	7.6%
13	InvernessEast, Nairn and Lochaber		2,339	8.2%
14	Gordon		6,997	8.3%
15	Dumfries		9,643	9.7%
16	Argylland Bute		6,081	10.6%
17	Roxburghand Berwickshire		7,906	11.3%
18	Angus		10,189	11.8%
19	FifeNorth East		10,356	12.4%
20	Caithness,Sutherland and Easter Ross		2,259	12.4%
21	EdinburghSouth		11,452	12.8%
22	EdinburghCentral		11,070	13.0%
23	CunninghameNorth		11,039	13.4%
24	Ross,Skye and Inverness West		4,019	13.9%
25	Renfrewshire West		7,979	14.0%
26	EdinburghNorth and Leith		10,978	14.5%
27	AberdeenCentral		10,801	15.2%
28	Ochil		4,652	15.2%
29	Dumbarton		10,883	16.0%
30	Banffand Buchan		12,845	16.0%
31	EastLothian		14,221	16.4%
32	Strathkelvinand Bearsden		16,292	16.4%
33	AberdeenNorth		10,010	16.4%
34	Glasgow,Govan		2,914	17.6%
35	DundeeEast		9,961	17.7%
36	Clydesdale		13,809	18.1%
37	EdinburghEast and Musselburgh		14,530	19.1%
38	Kilmarnockand Loudon		7,256	19.5%
39	Orkneyand Shetland		6,968	19.9%
40	Kirkcaldy		10,710	19.9%
41	Glasgow,Kelvin		9,665	20.1%
42	DunfermlineWest		12,354	20.2%
43	DundeeWest		11,859	20.3%
44	Linlithgow		10,838	20.8%
45	FalkirkEast		13,385	21.1%
46	Midlothian		9,870	21.3%
47	Clydebankand Milngavie		13,320	21.4%
48	Carrick,Cumnock and Doon Valley		21,062	21.4%
49	Glasgow,Cathcart		12,245	21.9%
50	EastKilbride		17,384	22.3%
51	Greenockand Inverclyde		13,040	22.3%
52	Livingston		11,747	22.7%
53	Motherwelland Wishaw		12,791	23.2%
54	FalkirkWest		13,788	23.6%
55	Glasgow,Rutherglen		15,007	24.1%
56	PaisleySouth		12,750	24.4%
57	WesternIsles		3,576	24.5%
58	FifeCentral		13,713	24.8%
59	PaisleyNorth		12,814	24.9%
60	Glasgow,Anniesland		15,154	25.2%
61	Cumbernauldand Kilsyth		11,128	26.0%
62	CunninghameSouth		14,869	26.3%
63	Airdrieand Shotts		15,412	26.5%
64	HamiltonNorth and Bellshill		17,067	26.8%
65	Glasgow,Pollok		13,791	26.9%
66	DunfermlineEast		18,751	28.4%
67	HamiltonSouth		15,878	28.5%
68	Glasgow,Ballieston		14,840	29.0%
69	Glasgow,Maryhill		14,264	29.5%
70	Coatbridgeand Chryston		19,295	29.9%
71	Glasgow,Springburn		17,326	32.7%
72	Glasgow,Shettleston		15,868	33.8%

Acknowledgement:

Figures compiled by Harry Hayfield using figures from the Times Guide to the House of Commons: May 1997