The 2005 Election

'As far as New Labour are concerned, power lies with Tony Blair and London - not with the Scottish people.' SNP leader Alex Salmond.

Battleground Scotland - Redrawn

There are four Boundary Comissions - for Scotland, England, Wales and Nothern Ireland.

The current Westminster parliamentary constituencies have been in place since the fourth review by the Scottish Boundary Commission. They were used for the 1997 and 2001 Westminster elections, and the 1999 and 2003 Scottish parliamentary elections, with the exception of Orkney & Shetland which forms two seats in the Scottish Parliament. The current boundary changes will not affect the Scottish parliamentray constituencies.

Normally, boundary reviews are necessary due to great demographic shifts which include shrinking populations in industrial cities such as Glasgow and the growth in suburban and rural areas. However, this particular review came about for a different reason - a reduction in the number of Scottish seats following the eastblishment of a devolved Scottish parliament in 1999.

The third review, which redrew the seats for the 1983, 1987 and 1992 elections, was the most radical redrawing of Scottish constituency boundaries since 1918. An additional seat was added in Scotland bringing the total to 72.

In the fourth review, most Scottish constituencies were altered to a greater of lesser degree. In particular, the seat of Glasgow Central was abolished and a new Aberdeen Central seat was created.

The fifth review, as previously, has created both harmony and disorder. The status of Orkney & Shetland (electorate 32,181) is protected by law and it remains unchanged. The Western Isles was part of mainland constituencies until 1918, but remains an independent constituency as Na h-Eileanan an Iar (electorate 21,884). The two most northely mainland seats have also survived over-englargement with Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross having an electorate of 46,533 and Ross, Skye & Lochaber an electorate of 49,544. Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey, on the other hand, has an electorate of 67,790, which is around the UK average. The maintenace of five seats in the Highlands & Islands rather than the three which this essentially rural area would be entitled to on a strict population basis means that Scotland will have 59 seats in the new parliament rather than the 57 originally proposed.

Apart from the Western Isles, and Orkney & Shetland, the only constituency not to have any boundary changes is Eastwood, which nevertheless changes its name to East Renfrewshire.

Several constituencies have been created which now have the same Westminster boundaries as the council areas of the same names: these include Argyll & Bute (electorate 69,571), East Lothian (71,288), East Renfrewshire (69,249), Inverclyde (65,485), Midlothian (62,787), Moray (63,959), Stirling (66,393) and West Dunbartonshire (71,710).

There have been some major revisions since the first proposals, notably in the city of Edinburgh, however, one or two monstrosities remain. A prime example is Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (electorate 65,137), which should not be confused with Dumfries & Galloway (electorate 75,316). The former contains wards not only from the Dumfries & Galloway and Scottish Borders council areas, but also from South Lanarkshire. This particular constituency appears to contain the left overs that the Boundary Commission had difficulty in fitting in elsewhere.

In 2001, Labour won 55 of the 72 seats, the Lib Dems won 10, the Scottish National Party five, the Conservatives one seat, and the Speaker (previously a Labour MP) the remaining seat. If the 2001 election had been fought on the new boundaries, Labour would have won ten less seats and the SNP, Lib Dems and Tories one seat less each.

The 2001 result on the old and new boundaries

Key

Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Speaker

Party	Votes in 2001	% vote in 2001	Seats won in 2001	Notional seats on new boundaries
	1,001,173	43.27 %	55	45 (- 10)
	464,314	20.06 %	5	4 (-1)
	378,863	16.37 %	10	9 (- 1)
	360,658	15.58 %	1	0 (- 1)
	16,053	0.69 %	1	1

Voting boundary reform looks set to rob Labour of 10 Scottish seats

Labour policy backfires on the party's Westminster majority as Scottish wards get reshuffle

By Douglas Fraser, Political Editor in the Sunday Herald, 11 January 2004

Scottish Labour can expect to lose at least 10 Westminster seats next year and the Conservatives face being wiped off the nation's political map once more, according to two detailed studies of new constituency boundaries.

Labour suffer by far the worst as a result of their own policy, according to the authoritative analyses, which apply past votes to new electoral boundaries.

One of the studies, which applies polling trends over the past six months to the new boundaries, suggests Labour could lose even more than 10 seats. It forecasts the loss of a further three seats at the general election expected in 2005 - all to the Scottish National Party.

The predicted cut in Labour seats comes at a particularly vulnerable time for the party, as the government faces having to rely on Scottish MPs to vote down English rebels in the forthcoming vote on top-up student fees in England. After the election, which must take place by June 2006, the presence of Scottish Labour MPs may become all the more important to Labour's grip on power.

he Blair government chose to cut Scottish MP numbers from 72 to 59 as part of the 1998 devolution legislation. This was to bring average electorates into line with English seats and to end Scotland's long-standing disproportionate representation in the House of Commons.

The new political map was finalised last month by the Boundary Commission for Scotland after prolonged consultation, and its approval later this year by Secretary of State or Scotland Alistair Darling is seen as a formality.

One calculation of how votes would be distributed across the new boundaries has been carried out by Martin Baxter, a Scottish-born mathematician who models financial products for a major bank in London, and studies politics as a sideline. His analysis tallies with a study carried out separately by Professor David Denver of Lancaster University, the results of which are to be published soon.

Both approaches build on the voting patterns across the 2001 Westminster election and the 2003 council elections, with Denver including additional data from the 1999 council vote. They assume that people vote according to the same patterns, but the wards in which they vote are re-allocated within the new seat boundaries.

The outcome for the reduced number of seats would cut Scottish Labour MPs returned to Westminster from 56 to 46 (including Michael Martin, the Speaker). Each of the other main parties would lose one seat each: the Liberal Democrats down to nine, losing one seat in the Borders, the SNP down to four, with the merger of the Perth and North Tayside seats, and the Conservatives losing their only seat.

That new seat in the southwest, to be called Dumfries and Galloway, would be hard fought between Tory, Labour and SNP, with both studies giving Labour less than a 3% majority over the Conservatives. According to Baxter, the trend of national polls from The Herald/System Three over recent months suggests that the SNP could edge into the lead, with less than 1% of the vote separating the parties.

The other key marginals, according to both analyses, would be the newly enlarged Angus seat, where the SNP would hang on by a slender margin, with the Conservatives running them close.

Both Baxter and Denver reckon Labour would narrowly hold the new Dundee East seat under previous voting patterns, but Baxter reckons recent poll trends could see them lose it to the SNP by next year.

The majority in the new Ochil and South Perthshire seat would be cut under past voting evidence to 1617, according to Baxter, with Denver calling it "extremely marginal". According to Baxter, polling trends suggest it could move the Nationalists' way by next year, putting Labour's Martin O'Neill at risk.

This is based on an average of System Three polls published in The Herald between August and December last year which put Labour down 3% on their 2001 result, with the Tories down 1.4%, LibDems down 1.1% and the SNP up 3.5%.

The mathematician's analysis of recent polls for the whole of the UK, allied to his analysis of Scotland's changing boundaries, point towards Labour losing 28 seats and having a majority of 104. That means nearly half their seat losses would be in Scotland.

Otherwise, the emerging pattern from both the Baxter and Denver studies is striking for how many Labour seats look rock solid. Only 10 seats in Scotland have a majority of less than 10% of the vote, six of them notionally Labour-held and three with the SNP.

According to Denver: "Labour remain easily dominant. In places like Glasgow, it doesn't matter how you draw the boundaries - Labour are going to win all the seats. What's most interesting therefore is the scramble within Labour for those seats."

He added that while his analysis was based on how people actually voted, but applying the votes in different constituencies, it should not be assumed that people would vote the same way where tactical voting had different effects.

Baxter explained his study tried to be as scientific as possible, but was skewed by some council wards in which not all the parties put up candidates.

11 January 2004