Labour in deep trouble

North East Scotland is one of the largest European seats in the UK.

It contains the city of Aberdeen which is the oil capital of Europe, the city of Dundee with its mix of urban problems and opportunities, Royal Deeside, important fishing communities like Peterhead and Fraserburgh plus a broad swathe of rural Scotland.

It can be tempting to depict this area in pastoral terms - given the rural loveliness of areas like upper Tayside, Deeside and the district known as the Mearns which featured in the works of Lewis Grassic Gibbon.

But it should be borne in mind that around forty per cent of the potential voters live in the distinctly urban environments of Aberdeen and Dundee.

European issues have a big impact in this seat: perhaps more than in other areas. But the European controversies here are far more likely to be the future of industry, fishing and farming - than such issues as Britain's place in Europe which might feature elsewhere. Struggling industrial areas like Dundee and Arbroath can benefit from European regional aid - and would obviously be affected by the review of such grants.

The farming industry is, of course, gravely affected by the continuing beef ban: the world-famous Aberdeen Angus breed comes from this area. The fishing communities remain worried over the impact of quotas and the accession of other fleets to Scottish waters. The ancient city of Aberdeen - formerly a fisheries and farming market - now owes much of its prosperity to onshore activities associated with North Sea oil.

The equally ancient city of Dundee - once a cradle of the religious Reformation - has gone through substantial upheaval of its own of late. The last batch of raw jute - for a century the dominant industry in Dundee - recently arrived in the city. Dundee is now moving into innovative industrial areas like medical technology. Dundee as a city is historically associated with jute, jam and journalism. Jute and jam have all but gone. Journalism survives in the shape of DC Thomson. This is the city of the Courier - and the Beano.

The area features the customary range of social challenges: Dundee, Aberdeen and, more recently, communities like Fraserburgh and Peterhead are said to have substantial drugs problems. Unemployment is below the Scottish average - although there are depressed pockets.

Political Make-up:

As a by-election, the contest will be fought on the boundaries which prevailed during the 1994 European Elections - despite the fact that potential changes have been introduced since.

That means, broadly, that the seat which will be contested contains nine Westminster constituencies - AS THEY EXISTED at the 1992 General Election.

The Returning Officer's department in Aberdeen advise that - owing to this complexity - they are regarding the Euro-seat as comprising a range of unitary local authorities (either in whole or in part), rather than using Westminster seats as building blocks. On that basis, the seat comprises the following potential electors:

Council Area and Voters
Aberdeen City Council - 171,531
Dundee City Council - 115,555
Aberdeenshire Council - 173,191
Angus Council (East) - 87,068
Perth and Kinross (North Tayside) - 36,716
TOTAL ELECTORATE - 584,061

The 1994 result was as follows:

Party	Vote	% Share
SNP	92,892	42.78%
Labour	61,665	28.40%
Conservatives	40,372	18.59%
Liberal Democrats	18,008	8.29%
Others	4,213	1.94%

Dr. Allan Macartney, for the SNP, consequently had a majority of 31,227 over Labour. This was a GAIN from Labour - the only seat which Labour dropped at these elections. North East Scotland was previously held by the Conservatives in the person of James Provan, now MEP for South Downs West.

In terms of party make-up, Aberdeen and Dundee councils are controlled by Labour; the SNP control Angus and Perth & Kinross councils, while the LibDems control Aberdeenshire in coalition with independents.

Among Westminster seats in the area at the 1997 general election, Labour took Aberdeen North, Aberdeen Central, Aberdeen South, Dundee East and Dundee West; the SNP took Angus, North Tayside and Banff & Buchan (the seat of the party leader Alex Salmond); the Liberal Democrats took Gordon and West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine. The Conservatives, in common with their performance throughout Scotland, failed to win a single seat.

The Candidates:

New MEP Ian Hudghton

Scottish National Party: The SNP will be represented by Cllr Ian Hudghton. He is the leader of the council in Angus - and already plays a European role through his membership of the Committee of the Regions, the body which represents regional and local opinion in European discussions. Aged 46, he was the election agent for Dr Macartney. A first time contender, he will also head the SNP's candidates when the Euro Elections for Scotland are determined next June by a single PR list. Regardless of the outcome here, consequently, he is likely to be heading for Brussels/Strasbourg.

Labour: Labour's candidate will be Kathleen Walker Shaw. Aged 37, she is originally from Aberdeen. A former part-time polytechnic lecturer, she has been the GMB Union's European officer for the last five years, based in Brussels. She is fluent in French and German, with a working knowledge of Dutch

Conservative: The Conservative candidate is Struan Stevenson. Born in 1948, he has been a farmer in South Ayrshire and leader of the former Kyle and Carrick council in that area. Mr Stevenson is prominently identified with the Tory Left in Scotland, favouring devolution when it was deeply unpopular with his party. He temporarily recanted somewhat while trying (unsuccessfully) to win Dumfries at the last general election. Nevertheless, he had been expected to be a leading contender for the Tories at Scottish Parliamentary elections but has opted to focus upon European elections. He is a director of an Edinburgh-based public affairs consultancy.

Liberal Democrats: The LibDems will be represented by Dr Keith Raffan - a former CONSERVATIVE MP at Westminster. He was born in Aberdeen in 1949 and educated in the city and at Cambridge. A former journalist and researcher to North-east Tory MP Alick Buchanan-Smith, he entered Westminster as an MP in 1983. He supported Sir Anthony Meyer's Òstalking horseÓ candidacy against Margaret Thatcher in 1989 - and subsequently quit the Tory party in 1992. Dr Raffan joined the LibDems in 1997 - with the party noting that career commitments prevented him from joining earlier.

Scottish Green Party: The Green cause will be represented by Robin Harper, a 58-year-old teacher of modern studies in Edinburgh. His links with the North-east include education at Aberdeen University. Mr Harper previously contested the Lothian Euro-constituency at the elections in 1989, securing more than ten per cent of the vote.

Scottish Socialist Party: Harvey Duke.

The Political Contest:

The SNP had a substantial majority here in 1994 - and consequently most observers would start them as favourites to win. This is, however, a remarkable constituency. It has been, successively, Conservative, Labour and Nationalist. It cannot be truthfully described as archetypically anything in political terms. There are strong Labour wards, Nationalist fiefdoms (including the party leader's seat), Conservative enclaves and LibDem territories.

This will be to some extent a holding contest. The full European Elections are due in June 1999 under a PR system. Scotland will be regarded as a single ÒregionalÓ list - with members allocated according to the parties' overall voting strengths. Consequently, this seat will disappear along with others.

Politically, the contest will be influenced - and probably over-shadowed - by the coming elections to the new Scottish Parliament on 6 May 1999. These are currently the obsession of the Scottish political scene. Quite apart from the Euro-seat itself, consequently, each of the parties will be keen to perform at peak in order to advance their arguments for election to the Scottish Parliament.

The Nationalists will want electoral evidence to back up their apparent Scottish Parliamentary strength in the opinion polls. Ideally, of course, Labour would like to regain the seat - but will also be anxious to gather any indications that the SNP momentum has stalled. The Conservatives, who formerly held this seat, will be working flat out to demonstrate their readiness to overturn the reverses of the 1997 General Election. The Liberal Democrats say their Westminster and council presence in the area can enable them to improve significantly on their showing in 1994.

Additionally, this by-election will be held shortly before the introduction of the European single currency by 11 EU countries. It is likely to place the spotlight upon European politics: not just Britain's perspective but of course the demand from the Nationalists in particular for Scotland to be given a stronger voice in European institutions.

It is highly unlikely, however, given the very different Scottish political scene, that this by-election will be dominated by a Euro-sceptic versus Euro-phile philosophical contest. Rather it may be most heavily influenced by the coming elections to Scotland's new electoral forum.

Last Updated: 27/11/98

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