 | 'Meanwhile, there could be a significant swing to Labour in the North East Scotland European by-election tomorrow, albeit not sufficient enough to recapture the seat from the Scottish National Party.' Professor John Curtice in the Scotsman, 25 th November 1998. |  |
Both are dubious. But there is not doubt that it raises questions both about Tony Blair's management of his party and his insistence on the merits of the closed list form of proportional representation.
Even before the count, Kathleen Walker Shaw's performance as Labour's standard bearer was widely criticised. It began with misguided remarks about the SNP and racism. It ended with confusion about where she was born and claims about where she was conceived!
Just another everyday story of a misfortunate by-election candidate soon to be relegated to the footnotes of political history? Not quite. For Walker Shaw is No 3 on Labour's proposed list of candidates for next year's June Euro-election. Even if Labour were to do as badly next June as they did last Thursday, she would find herself elected.
In short, Walker Shaw is supposedly a shining example of the merits of New Labour's candidate selection procedures. Here, unlike Dennis Canavan, is someone who apparently is 'good enough' to be a Labour candidate. And yet the result is one of Labour's biggest by-election disasters for years.
On Wednesday, the government will reintroduce the European Elections Bill that was scuppered by the House of Lords over the issue of whether voters should be able to express any view about the merits of individual candidates on the party lists.
Hithertoo, Labour has argued that the dispute about closed lists shows just why the undemocratic hereditary peers should be removed from the Lords. But now the voters of North-East Scotland have spoken, firmly rejecting one of Labou's chosen.
Despite the current political fever in Scotland, only one in five voters felt it was worthwhile going to the polls - and that was slightly above the average for Euro by-elections. It is quite clear that most voters regard Euro by-elections as an irrelevance.
Tory claims that their second place shows the beginnings of a revival are wide of the mark. Struan Stevenson's achievement was more an indication of Walker Shaw's failure than any Conservative success and the party still seems in the doldrums.
In contrast, there is no doubt that some wind has been put back into the SNP's sails after constant attacks from Labour and a slip in its poll position over recent weeks. Yet Alex Salmond would be wise to be cautious. If repeated across Scotland as a whole, the swing since 1994 would put the SNP on 38 %. That might be five points more than Labour would win, but it is only marginally above the SNP's current position in the Holyrood polls.
Doubtless Donald Dewar will porve to be a wilier oponent than Walker Shaw. Mind you, Dewar might be wondering just how much help he is going to get from his campaign manager, Helen Liddell. Her reaction to defeat was to claim it was difficult to get voters to the polls where they are happy. Sounds as though her strategy for success next May is to make the government popular.
John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University.
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