A battle without heat

'The early campaign slippage into accusing the SNP of racism was a terrible error which should never have been allowed to happen and for which she had to apologise. Latterly she was caught out claiming she was born in Aberdeen when she was actually born and raised in Staffordshire. Again, she was forced to apologise.'
Robbie Dinwoodie on Labour candidate Kathleen Walker Shaw in the Herald, 23 rd November 1998.

Robbie Dinwoodie finds that the North-east by-election is failing to kick up a stir

From the Herald

IT'S GOT a tour-bus like something rock stars would use in between wrecking hotel rooms; it's got one side calling in all its top stars of Britpol; it's got one participant who has made a career out of falling out with his own band; and another with so much natural adrenaline flowing in his veins that he obviously has no need of white powder; and it's a big "end-of-one-era/start-of-another" kind of gig. So why is it not, in the Prime Minister's current buzz-word, sexy? Most political correspondents thought the European by-election in North- East Scotland would be significant, colourful, and intriguing, if never quite confident that it would be sexy. For one thing, it was to be the last big set-piece confrontation before next May's first ever Scottish General Election, a crucial test of public opinion after a summer and autumn when the polls have behaved like a yo-yo. The SNP hold the seat with a majority of 30,000, but in the 10 Westminster constituencies at last year's General Election Labour won most votes and most constituencies.

Unlike by-elections such as Paisley South, Labour as contenders rather than sitting tenants were going to have to come out and fight, but do so dragging the heavy baggage of Westminster incumbency. Their Nationalist foes were going to have to make enough of the running to avoid accusations that they were now playing Labour's old safety game and keeping the lid on things.

Then there were the second-string players in the drama. The Conservative candidate was liked by, and friendly with, the media, a smooth, televisual operator whose party pedigree was both pro-devolution and pro-European. OK, he'd had to hide these lights under the bushel of party orthodoxy at times and he was a carpet-bagger from the South-west, but now he would come good.

Destined to upset this apple-cart was to be a Liberal Democrat with genuine North-east credentials and an ability to steal the Tories' thunder since he was formerly one of their own MPs. His claim to the legacy of Alex Buchanan-Smith (partly true) was about to run up against his actual record as an MP (of which more later), all of which would be blown away in any case by his persona as Hurricane Keith.

And finally, there would be the bit players, the Red and the Green; not side-by-side like their namesakes in the John MacLean March (a song in which the Greens were religious rather than environmental), but head-to-head, fighting for a meagre share of a tiny vote, thereby doing each other down. The question was: how much would all this reflect what will happen next April and May? The by-election was caused by the death of Allan Macartney in August. Full of life until robbed of it, he attended both party and Scottish Parliament promotional meetings in Perth the previous day, typically enjoying both comradeship and rivalry. The SNP lost its deputy leader and a key party thinker, as well as North-east MEP. The tributes flowed from all over the world.

The SNP picked as chosen successor Ian Hudghton, election agent to both Dr Macartney and to Tayside North MP John Swinney. As council leader in Angus (independently voted best-run local authority in Scotland, as the SNP never cease pointing out), and as a member of Europe's Council of the Regions, his record shows him to be a significant political operator.

One of the least edifying aspects of recent days has been to hear Labour aparatchiks muttering snidely and dismissively of him that he is "just a painter and decorator". This is, indeed, the nature of the family business his father started, and before he became a full-time council leader Mr Hudghton was to be seen in paint-spattered overalls, but it seems a sneering, condescending jibe, not unlike the type of remark certain kinds of Tory used to utter about Labour candidates.

Kathleen Walker Shaw, carrying the banner of Scottish New Labour, is intelligent and personable with identifiable European skills and experience, multi-lingual and with a track record of working in Brussels for the GMB union. Her father was a shipyard worker forced south from Aberdeen in search of work.

But, while Mr Hudghton is, perhaps, a little stolid, he is steely and unflappable. Mrs Walker Shaw is politically inexperienced, by turns naive and nervous, not always well served by her party. Labour are happy to pour in the heavy artillery and top brass, perhaps because their battleplan is directed to next May rather than next Thursday, but on the ground they have alternated between gagging their candidate and letting her make gaffes.

The early campaign slippage into accusing the SNP of racism was a terrible error which should never have been allowed to happen and for which she had to apologise. Latterly she was caught out claiming she was born in Aberdeen when she was actually born and raised in Staffordshire. Again, she was forced to apologise, saying it was "my pride in being a Scot that led me to give an inaccurate account of my birthplace".

Whatever happened to skilled by-election minders who know when to give a candidate room to flower but also when to step in and prevent gaffes? Scottish Liberal Democrat candidate Keith Raffan is beyond any minder. He was a researcher for the late Alex Buchanan-Smith and therefore lays claim to the mantle of one-nation Toryism which should help the LibDems mop up in West Aberdeenshire.

The trouble is that his opponents instantly seized on his voting record as a Tory MP in North Wales and found that, although he was indeed pro-European, he was also pro-Poll Tax. He is also - how can it most charitably be put? - a tad excitable. His performance in last Thursday night's televised Grampian Television debate was so over-the-top that Conservative strategists present were convinced that their man, Struan Stevenson, had been handed a gift. However, even if he scores in the relevant parts of the Euro-constituency, it is still a head-to-head between SNP and Labour overall.

Nor will the intervention of Harvey Duke from Dundee, of the Scottish Socialist Party, or Robin Harper, the veteran from the Green Party, change much, except to prove that if either wants to squeeze any seats from the proportional representation system next May they'd better start talking about some kind of pact now.

However, for Labour to do well in this enormous constituency it was vital that they sweated blood to work the five urban constituencies they held at Westminster, the three in Aberdeen, and two in Dundee. In spite of repeated Ministerial visits - Dewar, Liddell, Brown, Cook, Robertson - on the ground there is little evidence that the spadework is being done.

They got 118,162 votes in May last year across the 10 constituencies (28.7%), compared to the SNP with 115,940 (28.2%). The Conservatives got 98,336 votes (23.9%) and the Liberal Democrats 72,880 (17.7%). While it is true that, for reasons that are not entirely clear, the SNP do better in European polls than at other levels, it is strange, none the less, that Labour have talked down their prospects so much in this contest given that on this analysis they are front-runners.

If Labour are hoping that a low turnout leads to a reduced SNP majority and a claimed moral victory for them, so be it, but everyone, including them, are going to have to talk things up again pretty quickly by next spring. By then the scene better be very sexy indeed, or we will wonder why we bothered. - Nov 23

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