 | 'Aberdeen saw scenes of Nationalist jubilation as the SNP deputy leader, Allan Macartney, overturned a 2,500 Labour majority to win the European election by an incredible 31,000 votes.' Peter Jones, Iain Lundy and David Scott in the Scotsman, 14 th June 1994. |  |
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Cllr Ian Hudghton |  |
Kathleen Walker-Shaw |  |
Struan Stevenson |
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Dr Keith Raffan |  |
Robin Harper |  |
Harvey Duke |
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Political commentators love to point out that the Tories are only party ever to win an absolute majority of votes in an election in Scotland. In 1955 the Conservatives, or Unionists are they were then known, took 50.1 % of the popular vote.
From then on, it was downhill almost all the way, and by the time of Margaret Thatcher's' historic victory on the 3 rd of May 1979 the Scottish Tories share of the vote had fallen to 31.3 %, 10.5 % behind Labour. Although Labour lost the election - in England and Wales at least - in Scotland they had 44 MPs, compared to 22 for the Tories, 3 for the Liberals and 2 for the Scottish National Party.
Just a month after the general election, the country again went to the polls, on 7 th June 1979, to elect, for the first time, members of the European Parliament. Labour expected to win five of the Scottish seats. However, their anti EEC stance, coupled with a low turnout produced a quite astonishing result. Labour, with 33.0 % of the vote, won only two seats, Glasgow and Strathclyde East, while the Tories, with 33.7 % of the vote took not only South of Scotland and North East Scotland, but also Mid Scotland & Fife, Lothians, and even Strathclyde West. Highlands & Islands was closely contested by Winnie Ewing for the Scottish National Party, Russell Johnston for the Liberals and Michael Joughin for the Conservatives, but it was Winnie Ewing who came out on top, and who has gone on to be the longest serving MP in the European parliament.
In 1979, North East Scotland had an electorate of 481,680 and covered the Westminster constituencies of Aberdeenshire East and West, Aberdeen North and South, Angus North & Mearns and Angus South along with Dundee East and West. Applying the previous month's general election figures to the seats would have given the Conservatives a majority of 13,000 over Labour with the SNP a further 20,000 behind and the Liberals trailing a poor fourth.
Indeed, Conservative James Provan did win the seat with a majority of 13,414, but that is as far as the predictions stood up. In second place was the Liberal, Lord Mackie of Benshie with 24.5 %, some 377 votes ahead of Labour's David Clyne, while the Scottish National Party's Colin Bell came fourth with 18.3 %. Lord Mackie was a forceful personality with a long political pedigree. As George Mackie he was Liberal MP for Caithness & Sutherland between 1964 and 1966, when he was beaten by Labour's Bob Maclennan, who is now, somewhat ironically, a Liberal Democrat.
In 1984 Labour had its revenge for its humiliation in 1979 when it won the seats of Lothians, Strathclyde West and Mid Scotland & Fife from the Conservatives. In North East Scotland, Mr Provan was re-elected as Conservative MEP with a reduced majority of 9,171. In second place was the Labour candidate, Frank Doran, who won the Westminster seat of Aberdeen South from Conservative Gerry Malone in 1987, only to lose it to Raymond Robertson in 1992. In 1997 Mr Doran was elected as Labour MP for the new seat of Aberdeen Central.
Although the SNP vote fell by 1.6 % overall in 1984, in the Highlands & Islands Winnie Ewing more than quadrupled her majority while in North East Scotland, Dan Hood increased the SNP vote by 2.9 % to take them into third place.
For the Liberals, their fortunes were reversed. While overall the newly formed Alliance took 1.6 % more than the Liberals had in 1979, in North East Scotland, Ian Phillips for the SDP took 8.3 % less than Lord Mackie had four years previously. In the seat which they had confidently proclaimed was the fourth most winnable in Britain for them, they ended up in fourth place.
In 1989, Tory megalomaniac Mrs Margaret Hilda Thatcher treated Scots with utter contempt, using them as guinea pigs for her flagship policy, the Poll Tax. The 1989 European elections allowed Scots to take their revenge and the Conservatives, who had taken five of the eight seats in 1979, reaped the harvest of their viciously anti Scottish policies and were completely wiped out. Alistair Hutton, who had just managed to hold on to South of Scotland in 1984, lost by 15,696 to Alex Smith, while in North of Scotland, the sitting MEP James Provan found himself beaten into third place with 26.7 % of the vote.
In November 1988, the Scottish National Party re-emerged as a potent force in Scottish Politics when Jim Sillars won Glasgow Govan, one of Labour's safest seats. His wife Margo Macdonald had won a seat of the same name, but with vastly different boundaries, in 1973. Early in 1989, Bob McTaggert, MP for Glasgow Central, and victor of the 1980 by-election there, died suddenly. Labour were concerned that Central could be a repeat of Govan and therefore decided to hold the by-election on the 16 th of June, the same day as the European elections.
The technique worked. The SNP could not concentrate all their formidable campaigners into Central but inevitably poured resources into the by-election campaign which would otherwise have be used in the European elections. Alex Neil increased the SNP vote by 20.3 % in the by-election, but Mike (now Lord) Watson was elected for Labour with a majority of 6,462, down from 17,253 for Mr McTaggert at the General election.
Meanwhile, in North East Scotland, Labour's Henry McCubbin, just won North East Scotland with a majority of 2,613 over the Scottish National Party's Dr Allan Macartney. Psepsologists agree that had it not been for the Glasgow Central by-election, Allan Macartney would have almost certainly won the North East in 1989.
1989 was also notable for the strength of the Green vote, especially in England and Wales. Even in North East Scotland, M. Hill took fourth place with 7.3 % of the vote, beating the Liberal Democrat Simon Horner.
In 1994, it was clear that Mr McCubbin would have a fight on his hands if he wished to retain the seat. It was widely predicted that the Scottish National Party's Allan Macartney would win the seat. Indeed the SNP vote had steadily increased from 18.3 % in 1979 through 21.2 % in 1983 to 29.4 % in 1989. What was not predicted was the eventual size of Dr Macartney's majority. He was elected with 92,892 votes (42.8%) and a thumping 31,227 majority, by far the biggest in the history of the seat.
While the Labour vote merely slipped back to its 1984 levels, it was the Tories who suffered most with their candidate Ronald Harris slipping back to 18.6 %. With the collapse in the Green vote, the Lib Dem's Simon Horner regained fourth place with 8.3 %.
The by-election is caused by the untimely death of Dr Macartney, deputy leader of the Scottish National Party and one of Scotland's most respected and popular politicians.
In terms of parliamentary seats, North-east Scotland is a mixed bag, with the Scottish National Party holding three seats (Angus, Banff & Buchan and Tayside North), the Liberal Democrats two (Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine and Gordon), while Labour holds the five urban seats of Aberdeen Central, North and South and Dundee East and West. In the local government arena, the SNP run Angus and Perthshire & Kinross Councils, Labour controls Aberdeen and Dundee while in Aberdeenshire, the council is run by an Independent/Liberal Democrat coalition (although the SNP were by far the most popular party, polling over a third of the vote).
The North-east Scotland European constituency can probably be considered to be a safe SNP seat. The party poll extremely strongly everywhere apart from the City of Aberdeen and they are favourites to hold the seat. However, as in 1994, they will be taking nothing for granted. Many of Dr Macartney's votes were probably personal ones and the SNP can consider the by-election a triumphal victory should they manage to increase on his majority of 14.4 %, by far the largest in the four elections here. The turnout in the by-election is likely to be much reduced compared to 1994. As the constituency will disappear in 6 months and the seat is considered to be 'safe SNP' there is no great media interest in the by-election.
However, the election is nevertheless an important one and the political parties, with the exception of Labour, appear to be taking it seriously and have selected experienced candidates. The next European parliamentary elections will take place in June 1999, a month after the Scottish parliamentary and Local elections. As in 1979, there is likely to be voter fatigue and this contest will prove a useful forum for introducing candidates and exposing policies for the European parliament.
The Scottish National Party candidate is Cllr Ian Hudghton (pronounced Hudge-ton) who as Leader of Angus Council and as Allan Macartney's constituency and election agent was already well known in North East Scotland. Angus forms part of the North-East constituency. The Scottish National Party took control of Angus District Council from the Tories fourteen years ago in 1984 and have transformed the council into the best rated in the whole of mainland Scotland. The Scottish National Party MP, Andrew Welsh is a past Provost of Angus and has also represented three incarnations of the parliamentary seat - Angus South from October 1974 to 1979, Angus East from 1987 to 1997 and Angus from 1997. The SNP leader Alex Salmond holds Banff & Buchan and Treasury spokesman John Swinney is MP for Tayside North while the previous leader, Gordon Wilson was MP for Dundee East until 1987.
Cllr Hudghton, the Leader of Angus Council, was born in Forfar and currently represents the Forfar North East ward which he held with 69.7 % of the vote in 1995. Until local government reorganisation, he represented Langlands in Angus District District and Forfar East on Grampian Region. He was Housing Convenor in Angus for eight years until he became Deputy Leader of Tayside Region. Ian Hudghton knows the Euro constituency well as he was Allan Macartney's election agent. He also has addition first hand experience of Strasbourg and Brussels as he is one of the four Scottish representatives on the European Community's Committee of the Regions which represents regional and local opinion in Europe. He is also vice-president of the European Alliance Group. Cllr Hudghton was recently voted to the top place on the Scottish National Party's list for the European Parliament election sin June 1999.
The ex-Labour MEP for North-East Scotland, Henry McCubbin, is still active in politics but is now an approved Labour candidate for the Scottish Parliament. In his place, Labour have selected a certain Kathleen Walker-Shaw. Somewhat of an unknown quality, Ms Walker-Shaw is a former polytechnic lecturer and is now the GMB Union's European officer based in Brussels. In the Paisley South by-election, Ian Blackford, the SNP candidate said of his Labour opponent, the invisible Douglas Alexander: 'He can run but he can't hide.' This prompted Murray Ritchie of the Herald to comment 'Students of by-election lore might like to store that one away, at least until the early hours of Friday when Mr Alexander is favourite to become the first phantom ever elected to Westminster from Scotland. If Mr Blackford is wrong, then Thursday will be a bad day for democracy, a day on which the party machines discover it really is possible for politicians to win without ever subjecting themselves to public scrutiny. If Mr Blackford is right then Labour will have suffered a condign punishment in which they pay the price of shamelessly trying to sneak their man into Parliament by the back door.'
Labour appears to have decided against attempting to reweave its Paisley pattern in North-East Scotland. While Labour, by 1994, had increased their vote in Scotland by almost 10 % since their European disaster of 1979, in North East Scotland they have only managed a 4.2 % increase. Labour, after their 1997 landslide are already suffering from mid-term blues. Tony Blair's government is becoming increasingly identifed with punitive attacks on single parents, the disabled, students and teachers while accepting million pound bribes, attempting to undermine the Scottish parliament and encouraging the excesses of the Dome Secretary, and the Ministers for Interior Decoration, Extra Maritial Relationships, Tax Free Overseas Investments, Legalising Canabis, and Clapham Common Circuses. (And that is not even to mention to mention scandals closer to home such as Govan, Renfrewshire West, Paisley, Monklands, North Lanarkshire, knighthoods and part time Scottish Office Ministers on full pay...). Labour needs to increase its profile in North East Scotland, rather than hiding away and pretending that what is happening in the rest of the country is nothing to do with them. Aware of this, Ms Walker-Shaw has decided to come out fighting. Her outpourings have merely confirmed that Labour is panicking in Scotland. Claiming that the Scottish National Party are 'racist' and lying on at least two occasions about her place of birth has done nothing but highlight Ms Walker-Shaw's poor judgement, political immaturity and unsuitability for public office.
The official Conservative candidate here is one of the few well known faces remaining to the Tories. He is Struan Stevenson, who has made almost as many devolution U-turns in his lifetime as Doddie Robertson did in September 1996 when Labour had three different devolution policies in as many days. In 1987, Mr Stevenson contested the Labour stronghold of Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley taking a credible 20.7 % of the vote. In 1992, he was Tory candidate in Edinburgh South, taking 14,309, votes, some 4,176 less than Labour MP, Nigel Griffiths, and polling only 1.7 % less than Michael Kerr, Earl of Arcram when he lost the seat in 1987. Like the Tory Leaderene, Margaret Thatcher, Mr Stevenson made a highly embarrassing and somewhat unconvincing U-turn. At the Tory party Conference in 1996, he led the attack on Labour's devolution policy and nailed his colours firmly to the Unionist mast. Or perhaps not so firmly as all that now that the Tories are firm supporters of devolution. As firm that is, perhaps as Ted Heath was when he made his Declaration of Perth in 1970 or Shadow Secretary Teddy Taylor, onetime MP for Glasgow Cathcart was in 1976 when he affirmed 'I think you'll find that every one of us believes in decentralisation and devolution.' In 1992, Mr Stevenson was rewarded for his devolution U-turn by being selected for Dumfries, the Tories second safest Scottish seat where Sir Hector Munro was retiring after representing the constituency since 1964. However Mr Stevenson's hopes were shattered when a swing of 16.5 % from Labour to Conservative turned a notional 6,766 Tory lead into a 9,643 Labour majority.
There is a second Conservative standing in this election. In addition to the official Conservative, ex Tory MP Dr Keith Raffan is standing for the Liberal Democrats. Some of those eligible to vote may already have voted for Dr Raffan, who was educated and lives in Aberdeen, as he contested Aberdeenshire East in October 1974, taking 11,933 votes compared to 16,304 for SNP MP Douglas Henderson. Dr Raffan was elected as Conservative MP for Delyn in Wales in 1983 with a 5,944 majority over Labour which was reduced to 1,224 in 1987. Mr Raffan was a protege of Alick Buchanan-Smith, the highly respected Conservative MP for North Angus & Mearns, whose untimely death in 1991 caused the Kincardine & Deeside by-election which was won by the Lib Dems. While an MP, Dr Raffan publicly supported both the Meyer and Heseltine bids to unseat Mrs Thatcher. However, Dr Raffan was not the friend of Scotland that the Libs would like to pretend - House of Commons voting records reveal that the good doctor was a fervent supporter of the Poll Tax! In 1992, Mr Raffan retired to pursue a career in journalism and Labour's David Hanson won Delyn with a majority of 2,039 votes. There appears to be some disagreement as to when Dr Raffan joined the Lib Dems. While BBC Scotland comments 'Dr Raffan joined the LibDems in 1997 - with the party noting that career commitments prevented him from joining earlier.', the Scottish Lib Dems state that Dr Raffan has been a member since 1992. It is somewhat surprising that the Lib Dems have chosen someone who is not even on their party list for the 1999 European elections. This would appear to confirm that they have absolutely no hope of winning and hope that Dr Raffan candidature is a somewhat cynical attempt by the Lib Dems to use ex-Tory MP to gain them votes from disillusioned Tories.
Once a haven for disenchanted Labourites, the Liberal Party now seems to offer a haven for washed-up Tories who are deserting their sinking party faster than rats out of an aqueduct. Recent Liberal recruits include ex-Conservative MP Anna McCurley, ex-Tory Reform Group leader Arthur Bell and his wife Susan Bell who contested the Monklands East by-election for the Tories. The Tory take-over of the Scottish Lib Dems is creating a severe identity crisis in the party. Here, in the North-east, the Lib Dems recently lost one of their most senior members, Councillor Rhona Kemp, who defected to the Scottish National Party in September in protest at the number of Tories joining the Liberal Democrats. Cllr Kemp, who was a former convenor of Grampian region and a former member of the Liberal Democrats' Scottish executive, lambasted the Liberal Democrats for losing touch with the grassroots saying 'The Liberal Democrats have taken a lurch to the right. Whilst there are many good people in the party at local level, the Scottish leadership seems entirely in thrall to London, and entirely obsessed with the possibility of getting a seat at the Blair Cabinet table.'
The choice of an ex-Tory MP as their candidate seems to be an incredible own goal by the Liberal Democrats. It is true that they crashed from a second place 24.5 % in 1979 to fifth place with only 6 % in 1989 and that they only recovered by 2.3 % in 1994. The Liberal Democrats problem is that they have recently tended to poll less votes in the whole of the North East Euro constituency than Malcolm Bruce polls in Gordon with many who voted Lib Dem in parliamentary elections voting SNP in Euro elections. Whereas the selection of an ex-Tory MP may appeal to the third of voters who elected Mr Provan in 1979 and 1984, will he appeal to Lib Dem voters? It is true that in areas where the Tories still posed a threat, such as in Edinburgh West and Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, the Lib Dems won seats, whereas where the Tory vote has collapsed in areas such as Inverness East, Nairn & Locaber, Tweedale, Ettrick & Lauderdale and Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross, even senior Lib Dem MPs such as Sir Russell Johnston, Sir David Steel and Robert Maclennan, incumbants since 1964, 1965 and 1966, had come close to losing their seats. Although Mr Raffan may split the Tory vote in North-east Scotland, he is hardly likely to appeal to those who voted Liberal Democrat in Gordon and Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine in order to keep the Tories out. Cllr Rhona Kemp is unlikely to be the only Lib Dem who turns to the SNP.
Robin Harper will be contesting the by-election for the Scottish Green party. He is an Edinburgh-based teacher of modern studies who was educated at Aberdeen University. 1989 was a historic year for the Greens who came fourth with 15,584 votes (7.3 %) which was six times Labour MEP Henry McCubbin's majority. However in 1994, the Greens fell back to fifth place and 2,569 votes. Their aim will be to build on this with their sights on making a breakthrough by gaining a seat or two from the addition members list for the Scottish Parliament.
The newly formed Scottish Socialist Party, the successor to the Scottish Socialist Alliance, has also selected an experienced candidate. He is Harvey Duke, who contested Dundee East for the SSA at the general election, taking 232 votes (0.57%). He will be hoping to improve on the 689 votes won by Communist Mary Ward in 1994.
| Year | 1979 | Electorate | 481,680 |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEP | James Provan, Conservative | Majority | 13,414 |
| Westminster Constituencies | Aberdeen North (Lab), Aberdeen South (Con), Aberdeenshire East (Con), Aberdeenshire West (Con), Angus North & Mearns (Con), Angus South (Con), Dundee East (SNP), Dundee West (Lab). | ||
| Year | 1984 (Major boundary change) | Electorate | 554,291 |
| MEP | James Provan, Conservative | Majority | 9,171 |
| Westminster Constituencies | Aberdeen North (Lab), Aberdeen South (Con), Angus East (Con), Banff & Buchan (Con), Dundee East (SNP), Dundee West (Lab), Gordon (Lib/All), Kincardine & Deeside (Con), Tayside North (Con). | ||
| Year | 1989 | Electorate | 548,711 or 559,268 |
| MEP | Henry McCubbin, Labour | Majority | 2,613 |
| Westminster Constituencies | Aberdeen North (Lab), Aberdeen South (Lab), Angus East (SNP), Banff & Buchan (SNP), Dundee East (Lab), Dundee West (Lab), Gordon (Dem), Kincardine & Deeside (Con), Tayside North (Con). | ||
| Year | 1994 | Electorate | 575,748 |
| MEP | Dr Allan Macartney, Scottish National Party | Majority | 31,227 |
| Westminster Constituencies | Aberdeen North (Lab), Aberdeen South (Con), Angus East (SNP), Banff & Buchan (SNP), Dundee East (Lab), Dundee West (Lab), Gordon (Dem), Kincardine & Deeside (Con), Tayside North (Con). | ||
| Year | 1999 (Major boundary change) | Electorate | ? |
| MEP | Majority | ||
| Proposed Constituencies * | Aberdeen Central (Lab), Aberdeen North (Lab), Aberdeen South (Lab), Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine (Lib Dem), Angus (SNP), Banff & Buchan (SNP), Dundee East (Lab), Dundee West (Lab), Gordon (Lib Dem). | ||
| Logo | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | Dr Allan Macartney | 92,892 | 42.8 % |
| Labour | Henry McCubbin | 61,665 | 28.4 % |
| Conservative | Ronald Harris | 40,372 | 18.6 % |
| Liberal Democrat | Simon Horner | 18,008 | 8.3 % |
| Green | Keith Farnsworth | 2,569 | 1.2 % |
 | Communist GB | Mary Ward | 689 | 0.3 % |
| North East Ethnic | Louis Mair | 584 | 0.3 % | |
 | Natural Law Party | Duncan Patterson | 371 | 0.2 % |
| SNP gain from Lab | SNP majority | 31,227 | 14.4 % |
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