ICM say SNP 4 % ahead

'I regret I went over the top in my answers to repeated questioning by a reporter following a press conference. I should not have said what I did and I apologise.' Labour candidate Kathleen Walker Shaw apologises for lying about where she was born, 22 nd November 1998.

ICM say SNP are 4 % ahead of Labour

From an analysis by John Curtice in the Scotsman

The SNP may even be facing a tougher fight than it had anticipated in holding on to its North East Scotland seat tomorrow. In a special poll conducted in the constituency, the SNP has a lead of only four points over Labour among those certain to vote, compared with the 15 point lead won in 1994 by Allan Macartney.

However, with nearly one in four of those who say they are certain to vote unsure of who they will back, and with uncertainty particularly high among those who voted Labour last year, there is still potential for significant movement.

Moreover, only 45 per cent say they are certain to vote in the by-election, compared with 59 per cent who say they will vote in the Holyrood election, even though the latter is still six months away.

In practice, turnout tends to be even lower than is suggested by polls, so the actual figure tomorrow is likely to be less than the 37 per cent who voted in 1994, albeit higher than in other recent Euro by-elections.

Conservative and Liberal Democrat supporters in the constituency seem particularly likely to stay at home.

The Lib Dems have fallen to their lowest level of Holyrood support while, at 12 per cent in both Holyrood ballots, the Conservatives remain firmly in the doldrums. Not for a generation has Scottish politics looked so much like a two-horse race.

ICM interviewed a sample of 1,135 adults in the North East Scotland European constituency by phone between 19 and 22 September. The data has been weighted to the profile of all adults in the constituency and the voting figures are based on those who say they are certain to vote.

John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University.