Tribute to Dr Allan Macartney from Duncan Rice, Principal of Aberdeen University.
| 'He was the kind of statesman the new Scotland can ill afford to lose.' Tribute to Dr Allan Macartney from Duncan Rice, Principal of Aberdeen University. | |
The victory of Allan Macartney in North-east Scotland was perhaps less unexpected than his 30,000 majority over incumbent Labour MEP, Henry McCubbin.
Indeed, the SNP would most certainly have taken the seat in 1989, had it not devoted inordinate resources in a vain attempt to take Glasgow Central, although the margin of victory would have been much smaller.
In many respects the North-east is more natural SNP territory than the Highlands, where most of the parliamentary seats are held by the Liberal Democrats. The party plays a major role in the administration of both Tayside and Grampian regional councils, and controls Angus District.
Angus East and Banff & Buchan parliamentary constituencies are represented by SNP members, and its candidates harry Bill Walker in Tayside North. In Dundee, where the east division was formerly represented by Gordon Wilson, the Nationalists pose the major threat to Labour.
That general strength, augmented by the enthusiasm of activists following successes in the regional elections, combined with superior organisation and earnestness of purpose to mobilise the electorate.
The Peterhead-based HQ operated with its customary efficiency in Salmond's domain, and even in Aberdeen, where the party is less influential, canvassing returns that captured Northfield from Labour in May were employed to good effect.
Outside the cities, the SNP easily outgunned its opponents in manning polling places.
The enthusiasm of the SNP contrasted with the somewhat resigned approach of its opponents, whose activists seemed more concerned to protect their candidates from the impending doom than in the possibility of victory. The Liberal Democrats, who were to poll fewer votes (as usual) in the Euro constituency than those for Malcolm Bruce in general elections, made no more than a token effort, and in polling places in Gordon, which in May had secured the return of SLD councillors, were surrendered without a fight to the SNP.
The Conservatives, who had been well placed to win the seat after a successful general election performance, were largely demoralised by a catastrophic regional campaign in both Tayside and Grampian, and relied heavily on morning photo opportunities designed to capture coverage in the evening papers and local television news, together with letters and promise cards sent to known supporters.
Even the Labour party, which had been fortunate to take the constituency in 1989, seemed resigned to the dictates of fate. The main thrust of its campaign consisted of frequent visits by members of the shadow cabinet, designed to attract media interest, and canvassing relied more on telephone calling than nitty-gritty face to face door knocking.
Outside the major cities there was no serious Labour presence.
It is, however, difficult to argue that more vigorous campaigning by any of the parties would have substantially changed the outcome.
The drop in the Labour vote of 2.3 per cent on 1989 was not a major reversal and was more than 8 per cent better than at the general election. The major change was caused by a catastrophic collapse in Conservative support, which was not only eight per cent lower than in 1989 but barely half the 36.9 per cent it had enjoyed at the general election.
The main beneficiary of Tory disaffection, of course, was the SNP, which increased its share of the poll on 1989 by 13.4 per cent and by 15.9 on the 1992 general election.
The consequences of the result for North-east representation in Parliament are somewhat less severe than appears initially the case. The changes in Labour support, taken in conjunction with the results of the regional elections, do not suggest that it is threatened in either of its seats in Dundee, or what is currently Aberdeen North.
Indeed, one would expect Labour to pick up Aberdeen South. The SNP emerges more secure in Angus East and Banff & Buchan, and ahead in North Tayside. The Nationalists might also have a strong purchase on Kincardine & Deeside and Gordon, given the poor performances of both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, although the Euro elections grossly underestimate SLD parliamentary support in these constituencies. The Conservatives might also wish to make a similar point.
What the election in the North-east illustrates is what is more generally the case, that the electoral system is particularly cruel to the SNP. Having achieved a major advance in support, it is still some distance from receiving the representation its strength merits.
Michael Dyer is a lecturer in politics at Aberdeen University.
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