 | 'Would it not have been better for Alex Salmond to be back on the frontbench at Holyrood, taking on Jack McConnell face to face for the next year, instead of continuing to be a sort of roving ambassador? Scottish politics is a very different arena from 1999-2001, when Alex was last here.' SNP insider, 6 th April 2006. |  |
THE SNP ought to be favourites to take over the government of Scotland at next year's Holyrood elections.
After all, they have been the main opposition for the past seven years and the Labour-Lib Dem coalition has had its fair share of problems.
But instead of appearing on the brink of victory, the Nationalists are struggling to make an impact, having to explain poor by-election performances and suffering the embarrassment of a former leader branding its election target as "absurd".
As activists gathers for their spring conference in Dundee this weekend, party chiefs insist the mood is upbeat and the aim, set by leader Alex Salmond, of winning an extra 20 first-past-the-post seats is entirely achievable.
They point out the swing required for such an advance is under ten per cent, less than the party managed to achieve in the Livingston by-election last year when Labour won.
But Gordon Wilson, Mr Salmond's predecessor as SNP leader the first time round, wrote an article last month in which he said: "The concept that we can win 20 constituency seats in the next election and form the administration is regarded as absurd by members and the media."
And another leading party activist says: "People are still looking round and wondering where these 20 seats are going to come from."
To gain the number of seats in one night would be an incredible result at the best of times and for the SNP this is not the best of times. Their failure to win any of the recent by-elections - at Livingston, Cathcart and Dunfermline - has seriously dented the party's claim to be the main alternative to Labour. And the Lib Dems' spectacular success in Dunfermline was particularly humiliating.
"No-one seriously thinks we are on course for 20 extra seats," says one senior Nationalist. "But Scottish politics is very fluid and the Labour Party is in deep trouble with the electorate, so anything is possible."
Restoring the SNP's strength at Holyrood from the 27 seats it won at the last elections in 2003 to the 35 it had when the parliament was first established in 1999 would be seen as good progress, suggests this senior figure.
But that would leave Mr Salmond back where he started - and well short of his aim of becoming First Minister.
Mr Salmond is undoubtedly the SNP's best-known and most able politician, but his second spell as leader has seen him adopt a relatively low profile, leaving his deputy Nicola Sturgeon to take most of the limelight.
That is at least partly due to the fact Mr Salmond is a Westminster MP and not a Holyrood MSP. And some believe he should have seized the opportunity of next month's Moray by-election, caused by the death of Margaret Ewing, to accelerate his return to the Scottish Parliament.
Mr Salmond has only recently been selected to fight the nearby Gordon constituency next year, but some activists say he should have been prepared to switch and become the SNP's candidate in the by-election instead of Richard Lochhead.
One says: "Would it not have been better for Alex Salmond to be back on the frontbench at Holyrood, taking on Jack McConnell face to face for the next year, instead of continuing to be a sort of roving ambassador? Scottish politics is a very different arena from 1999-2001, when Alex was last here."
The party hierarchy insist Gordon Wilson's remarks were not damaging and his observations were "part of the debate".
They are dismissive of the Lib Dems' recent successes. "We have seen it before," says one senior insider. "And it's very patchy. If you look at council by-elections, there are massive swings in some areas and they do very poorly in others."
And the SNP strategists say that, when it comes to next year's elections, no-one should underestimate the "scunner" factor - the electorate's disillusionment with Labour. One insider says: "Our job is to present ourselves as the challengers and not the Lib Dems because they are not - they are part of the government."
But he admits: "It's going to involve a lot of hard work. There's no easy way."
Return to home page