 | 'That the Scottish Secretary, Donald Dewar, could lower himself to block a knighthood for Sean Connery because of the film star's affiliation to the Scottish National Party would be beyond belief in normal circumstances, except that when it comes to the world of politics nothing should surprise us.' Alan Cochran in the Scotsman, 23 rd February 1998. |  |
In the Unitary Council elections in 1995, Labour took 56.45 % of the vote in East Ayrshire Council compared to 36.12 % for the SNP. The figures were very similar in ward 13, Kilmaurs, Fenwick & Waterside where Robert Beattie won the ward for Labour with a 376 majority over the SNP's James Caddis.
The previous two Labour - SNP local government by-election contests had resulted in two gains for the Nationalists. Labour hopes that Kilmaurs, Fenwick & Waterside would not give the SNP a hat trick were dashed as the SNP took this previously safe Labour ward with a 319 majority over the Conservatives. Labour were humiliated as their vote crashed by 31.6 % and they fell to third place. The swing from Labour to the SNP was 22.35 %, beating even the swings of over 17% in Rosyth West and Dockyard (Fife) and Garrowhill (Glasgow).
This is a devastating result for Labour, who lost votes not only to the SNP, but also to the Conservatives. Despite a reduced turnout, of 47 %, down from 54.4 % in 1995, both the SNP and the Conservatives increased their actual votes. This demonstrates a clear shift in voting patterns in addition to abstentions by disillusioned Labour voters. Activists report many previous Labour voters saying that they would never vote Labour again.
Donald Dewar's gaffe regarding the blocking of a knighthood for SNP supporter Sean Connery and Labour's subsequent smear campaign against the actor also appear to have had an effect. There were many people who thought the Sean Connery fiasco was a disgrace.
The result will have greatly heartened Alex Neil, the local SNP candidate at the general election. Should he stand for the Scottish Parliament, he must now be the clear favourite to represent Kilmarnock & Loudoun. (And you can quote me on that, Jack!).
SNP Chief Executive, Mr Michael Russell commented:
'This is a stunning victory, coming on top of our earlier runaway success in Garrowhill. Alarm bells are running almost daily now in Keir Hardie House.'
Following the by-election, the political composition of East Ayrshire Council is 21 Labour and 9 SNP.
I am grateful to Hamish Mitchell for sending me the results.
This Nationalist advance may well be the explanation, but it is certainly not the excuse, for some of the strange behaviour from Mr Dewar and his team of late. First, and most humiliatingly, there was the denial of a knighthood for Sean Connery, an SNP supporter. Previously there was the controversial siting of the new Scottish parliament at Holyrood, instead of Calton Hill. There was the decision, too, to name the senior minister in that parliament the 'first minister', instead of 'prime minister'. Now Mr Dewar would deny Scotland its own national anthem. All of these rather petty actions have one common denominator - to deny the Nationalists a focus.
Scottish Labour is running scared. New Labour may be having a few hiccups south of the Border, where the opposition is weak, but overall it still looks in command. Here, there most certainly is an opposition and Labour does not quite know how to handle the phenomenon. It struggles to acknowledge publicly the reasons for the upturn in the SNP's popularity yet knows, at heart, that Labour has largely been to blame for its own misfortunes. It is reaping the whirlwind of the damaging sleaze allegations made against the party's representatives and its staggering inability to deal with them in a manner which would restore public confidence. Only yesterday, its cack-handed efforts against Glasgow's Lord Provost, Pat Lally, came to a halt when Mr Lally secured a suspension of disciplinary action against him.
Another reason could well be the starring role afforded by Mr Dewar to the SNP and its leader, Alex Salmond, during the incredibly successful devolution referendum campaign last September. Although it had widespread public support, there were many hostile voices inside Labour which argued that this move gave the SNP a new kind of respectability. They may be right.
Another straw in the wind which blew in yesterday was the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Jim Wallace's complaints about Labour's behaviour in government. Although he saved his harshest words for the SNP, there is nothing in his comments to suggest that, unlikely though it might seem at present, the LibDems could not do a deal with the Nationalists.
However, it is not so far-fetched to think that a party which believes in a federal Britain might be capable of doing a deal with one which believes in an independent Scotland within a Europe which many think is fast heading towards a wider kind of federalism anyway, particularly if the Liberal Democrats found the SNP's social policy more to their liking than they did New Labour's.
Such permutations, however, are for the future. It is the present which should trouble Labour leaders in Scotland. They show none of the confidence or sureness of touch which mark their colleagues in England. There they may not get everything right but at least they appear to be in control. Here, however, they have a one-track mind. It is a question of never mind the policy - how do we stop the Nats? And at present they don't seem to have an answer.
| 26 th February 1998 | 6 th April 1995 | ||||||
| Ann Hay |  | 788 | 46.9 % | Robert Beattie |  | 1,005 | 53.9 % |
| Young |  | 469 | 27.9 % | James Caddis | | 629 | 33.8 % |
| Russell | | 375 | 22.3 % | Leonard Freeman | | 229 | 12.3 % |
| Ann Stevenson |  | 48 | 2.9 % | ||||
| SNP gain from Lab | SNP maj. | 319 | 19.0 % | Lab gain | Lab maj. | 376 | 20.1 % |
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