Winning against strong Labour campaigns

'Last week's Moray by-election showed the strength of the SNP challenge for 2007. Unlike any other incumbent party in the past 20 years the SNP actually increased our vote and percentage share on a similar turnout.' SNP Leader Alex Salmond MP, 5 th May 2006.

Elections show SNP on course for 2007

From the Scottish National Party 5 th May 2006

Coming in the wake of the English local elections the research also shows how the SNP is leading the way in Scotland as the main challenger to Labour with the Tories and Liberal Democrats flat-lining or falling back.

The research shows:

• The SNP leading all other parties in by-elections (Parliamentary and Council) since the 2005 election with a 9.5% swing from labour to the SNP.
• Labour's vote collapsing dramatically in Scotland and south of the border.
• The Tories flatlining north of the border and failing to make any significant breakthroughs outside the south of England.
• The LibDems stalling in both Moray and the English local elections.

Commenting on both the English local elections results and the SNP's impressive by-election lead the SNP Leader Alex Salmond MP said:

"Last week's Moray by-election showed the strength of the SNP challenge for 2007. Unlike any other incumbent party in the past 20 years the SNP actually increased our vote and percentage share on a similar turnout.

"Combined with the English local government results today they show that the SNP is on course to remove the Labour/Liberal Democrat Government from power in Scotland in 2007.

"Significantly this research of all Scottish by-elections reflects the polling carried out by YouGov which also showed strong support for an SNP led Government and independence."

ENDS

Notes:

A) A copy of the research is attached.

Implications of Scottish by-elections & English local elections for 2007

1. Moray by-election

The result of the Moray Scottish Parliament by-election held on 27th April 2006 saw:

• The SNP increase its majority and votes on a virtually unchanged turnout*.
• The Labour vote cut by half against a backdrop of government problems.
• The Conservative vote hardly move despite pouring 10's of thousands into the campaign.
• The LibDem vote increase from 2003 but only by 0.1% from the 2005 general Election which they had set as their base vote to better**.

_{^{* No Scottish Parliamentary by-election (Westminster & Holyrood) in the last 20 years has seen an incumbent increase their vote and share.}}

_{^{** In the Edinburgh Evening News of 1st April a LibDem spokesman said: "Our election gurus É are clear the Lib Dems can win. Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems are all on about 20% of the vote".}}

2. English Local Elections

The results of the English local elections held on 4th May 2006 saw:

• Labour losing over 250 seats and control of a significant number of councils.
• The Tories make major gains in the south of England but failing to make any breakthrough in the urban areas of the north of England.
• The LibDems stall and fall back from their previous position. They failed to make any major breakthroughs and even lost control of councils.

3. Scottish by-elections

With no local elections in Scotland by-elections are the only indicator of political movement in Scotland.

The cumulative vote of all 19 by-elections in Scotland (Parliamentary and Council^) since the 2005 election has resulted in the following changes:

PARTY	2005/06 Vote	2003 Vote	2005/06 %	2003 %	% Change
SNP	39,588	38,896	30.76%	23.82%	+6.94%
Labour	37,469	67,227	29.11%	41.17%	-12.06%
Tory	17,076	22,614	13.27%	13.85%	-0.58%
LibDem	26,300	22,700	20.43%	13.90%	+6.53%
SSP	2,171	6,446	1.69%	3.95%	-2.26%
Ind/Oth	4,848	5,417	3.77%	3.32%	+0.45%
Green	1,252	0	0.97%	0.00%	+0.97%

^{^ Of the 15 Council by-elections none were held by the SNP prior to the by-elections. The SNP have won 7.}

• The above results equal a swing of 9.5% from Labour to the SNP.
• In 2003 Labour received 34.89% of the constituency vote and the SNP 23.77%. The SNP would only require a swing of 5.6% to overtake Labour.
• Of the Labour held Scottish Parliamentary seats the SNP is second in 36. The LibDems and Tories are only second in 4 each. 
• Of those 36 seats at least 23 are within the range of a 5.6% swing.

In terms of the 2007 elections the SNP is on course to remove Labour whose vote is collapsing with the Tories failing to make any impact north of the English Midlands and the LibDems momentum stalling both in Moray and the English local elections.

B) A copy of the YouGov polling reflecting the by-election vote is available here.