By-Election Analysis Shows SNP Would Lead Labour by 15 Seats
 | 'This analysis is fantastic news for the SNP, suggesting that the evidence of the latest polls showing substantial SNP leads over Labour is reflected in real votes by real people. It is also disastrous for the Labour party and Wendy Alexander's leadership. It shows that they are going even further backwards in Scotland after losing power for the first time in 50 years. Real voters are rejecting Wendy Alexander and the labour party's continually negative message. These figures reflect the findings of the sensational Holyrood poll last weekend, which put Alex Salmond 75 points ahead of Wendy Alexander.'
SNP Westminster Leader, Angus Robertson MP, 25 th March 2008. |  |
By-Election Analysis Shows SNP Would Lead Labour by 15 Seats
SNP Business Convener and Westminster Leader Angus Robertson MP today (Sunday) published an analysis of all local by-elections since the may 2007 elections which show that the SNP would extend it's lead over Labour to 15 seats with Labour crashing to 36 seats in the Scottish parliament.
An analysis of the percentage vote changes for each party in all by-elections held since may 2007 shows that the SNP would be on 51 seats, Labour on 36, the LibDems on 21, the Tories on 16, the Greens on 4 and 1 other. This analysis involves 21,266 voters who have voted in all the by-elections.
Commenting on the findings Angus Robertson said:
"This analysis is fantastic news for the SNP, suggesting that the evidence of the latest polls showing substantial SNP leads over Labour is reflected in real votes by real people.
"It is also disastrous for the Labour party and Wendy Alexander's leadership. It shows that they are going even further backwards in Scotland after losing power for the first time in 50 years.
Real voters are rejecting Wendy Alexander and the Labour party's continually negative message.
"These figures reflect the findings of the sensational Holyrood poll last weekend, which put Alex Salmond 75 points ahead of Wendy Alexander.
"It proves the SNP surging forward in Scottish Parliament polls as the Scottish Government removes prescription charges, delivers a Council Tax freeze, reintroduces free university education, and cuts small business rates."
ENDS
Notes:
1. The cumulative total of all by-elections held since May 2007 is as follows:
| Party |
Votes |
% |
Change since '07 |
| SNP |
7,297 |
34.30% |
+1.30% |
| Labour |
4,948 |
23.30% |
-6.50% |
| Tory |
3,047 |
14.30% |
-0.80% |
| LibDem |
2,644 |
12.40% |
1.90% |
| Other |
3,330 |
15.70% |
4.10% |
| TOTAL |
21,266 |
2. Applying those swings to the May 2007 Scottish Parliament results would result in the following support and seats:
| Party |
Constituency Vote |
Regional Vote |
Seats |
| SNP |
35.33% |
32.94% |
51 |
| Labour |
26.03% |
23.36% |
36 |
| LibDem |
19.53% |
13.49% |
21 |
| Tory |
16.11% |
13.36% |
16 |
| Green |
- |
5.59% |
4 |
| Other |
3.01% |
11.25% |
1 |
3. The following by-elections have taken place since May 2007:
Midstocket/Rosemount (Aberdeen Council) in August 2007
Helensburgh & Lomond South (Argyll & Bute Council) in October 2007
Lochee (Dundee Council) in November 2007
Kilsyth (North Lanarkshire Council) in January 2008
Elgin South, (Moray Council) in Feburary 2008
Highland (Perth & Kinross Council) in February 2008
Lerwick South (Shetland Council) in February 2008
Cambuslang East (South Lanarkshire Council) in March 2008
4. Full details of the MRUK poll are available here:
http://www.snp.org/press-releases/2007/scottish-government-s-popularity-soars/
The poll put the SNP's lead over Labour at 8% on the constituency vote and 10 points on the regional list vote
Alex Salmond's ratings were +53 compared to -22 for Wendy Alexander.
5. The latest YouGov UK poll had the following breakdown for Scotland:
SNP 37% (+19%)
Labour 30% (-9%)
Conservative 18% (+2%)
Liberals 11% (-11%)
http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/poll.pdf
SNP claims growing lead
By James Hamilton in the the Sunday Herald 26 th March 2008
SNP LEADERS today claimed the results of recent by-elections gave them a "substantial" lead over Labour.
The party claimed that on the basis of council poll results since it came to power last May, they would win 51 seats if there was a Holyrood election, while Labour would have 36, the Liberal Democrats 21, Conservatives 16, Greens four and there would be one other.
The SNP currently has 47 MSPs, one more than Labour. The Tories have 17 MSPs, the LibDems 16 and the Greens two. There is one independent MSP.
SNP business convener Angus Robertson hailed the results of the study, which looked at a total of 21,266 votes cast in eight by-elections.
Robertson, the party's Westminster leader, said: "This analysis is fantastic news for the SNP. Real voters are rejecting Wendy Alexander and the Labour Party's continually negative message."
A poll last week put First Minister Alex Salmond massively ahead of Alexander in approval ratings at 53% against 22%.
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