Local By-elections

'The key to misleading people is leaving out information but not telling a lie.' Colm O'Muircheartaight, senior lecturer in statistics at the London School of Economics.

Kintore (Aberdeenshire) 19 th February 1998

With no MPs, no MEPs, and no councils under their control Scottish Conservative morale was given a well needed boost on the 19 th of February when they gained the Kintore ward on Aberdeenshire Council from an Independent. The victory increased the number of their elected representatives in Scotland to 84 Councillors - in 1992, they had over 200.

Unfortunately for the Conservatives, the by-election gain was almost instantly overshadowed when ex-Renfrew West & Inverclyde MP, Anna McCurley, for years a thorn in the Tory flesh, and once looked upon as a potential SNP convert, defected to the Liberal Democrats.

In 1995, the Independent Councillor for the Kintore ward of Gordon Council, James Lawrence, also won the new ward of Kintore in Aberdeenshire Unitary Council . He was elected with a 322 majority over the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives, who took 24.7 % in 1992, did not put up a candidate in 1995, while the SNP, standing for the first time, took 13.0 %.

In the absence of any Independent candidate, the by-election was a four-cornered contest between the main Scottish political partites. The ward was won by the Conservatives who took 45.4 % of the votes gving them a 154 majority over the Liberal Democrats. Despite the absence of any Independent candidate who might have hampered Conservative chances, the Tories can be very happy with their performance in Kintore. From not standing in 1995, they gained the ward with a 20% increase in their vote compared to 1992, which was a good year for the Conservatives.

The Liberal Democrats increased their vote by 3.3 % on 1995, and the SNP by 2.3%. Labour, also fielding a candiadte for the first time, took 4.5 % of the vote. The turnout was 42.0 %, up slightly from 39.9 % in 1995

As the % vote for the Liberal Democrats and SNP changed little from 1995, it is difficult to conclude whether Kintore represents the start of a Conservative recovery in Scotland or merely a direct transfer of votes from Independent (often Tories without the party label) to the official Conservatives. Only time will tell.

Following the by-election, the political composition of Aberdeenshire Council, which is run by a Liberal Democrat / Independent coalition, is 16 Liberal Democrats, 15 Scottish National Party, 11 Independents, and 5 Conservatives. (There are no Labour councillors in Aberdeenshire).

Kintore

19 th February 1998				6 th April 1995
		661	45.4 %	James Lawrence	Ind	746	55.5 %
Alexander Stuart		507	34.8 %	Alexander Stuart		424	31.5 %
		222	15.3 %	Susan Fawley		175	13.0 %
		65	4.5 %
Con gain from Ind	Con maj	154	10.6 %	Ind gain	Ind maj.	322	24.0 %