 | ' A win for us after not standing in '95 would be an astonishing result, but reports so far suggest that it's not impossible.' Rob Herbert of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, 5 th November 1996. |  |
| ' A win for us after not standing in '95 would be an astonishing result, but reports so far suggest that it's not impossible.' Rob Herbert of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, 5 th November 1996. | |
Helensburgh has returned some strange results in the past three local elections. In the 1992 District elections, the three Helensburgh seats were in Dumbarton District Council. In Helensburgh East the result was Con 808; Lab 352; SNP 151; Lib Dem 67. Helensburgh West and Central were also held by the Conservatives with large majorities.
The Tories might have been expected to win the Helensburgh Regional council seat. However in 1994 Helensburgh was won by an Independent with 6,895 votes. The SNP came second on 1,306 votes while the Tories trailed with only 681 votes. The Independent in question was the incredibly popular Mr William Petrie, a one-time Liberal. He represented Rhu & Garelochhead in the old Dumbarton District Council from 1988 to 1995.
In 1995, the Helensburgh East Unitary Council seat was a three way fight between Labour, Conservatives and an Independent. It was won by Labour with 40.2% of the vote.
This by-election was a fierce battle and ended with an incredible result. Moyra Stewart took the Helensburgh East from Labour in a seat where the Lib Dems did not stand last time around. The Lib Dem effort was being run by one of their best campaigners, party Vice-Convenor Alan Reid. The Tories came second, with an Independent and the Scottish National party in third and fourth place. From coming first in 1995, Labour slipped to a highly embarrassing fifth position. The swing from Labour to the Liberal Democrats was over 34%.
Labour is riding high in the opinion polls at 55%, yet has lost three by-elections in a row. How can these facts be reconciled? One could suppose that the high opinion poll showing reflects, not Labour's popularity, but Conservative unpopularity. Many Scots may be considering voting Labour at a General Election in yet another attempt to get rid of the Tories. However, Labour's multiple U-turns on Scottish devolution have given the impression that the party cannot be trusted on home rule. The Liberal Democrats appear to have been the main beneficiaries for discontented devolutionists.
Local Government by-elections are becoming an electoral desert for Labour and have demonstrated how vulnerable Labour's opinion poll lead really is. Labour's greatest fear must be that these new voting trends will also occur at the General Election.
Commenting on the result, Scottish National Party Chief Executive, Mr Michael Russell said:
"Labour in Scotland must now be deeply worried about the coming General Election. Despite the headline polls, at every actual election in the last few months, Labour's support has collapsed, and in this by-election that collapse has become a rout. Activists, members and supporters of Labour are disillusioned with Tony Blair and the "New" style of his party, and are showing that dislike by refusing to turn out to vote.
The SNP did not even contest this seat last time, so over 10% from a zero position is a good beginning. The Liberals have some strength in Helensburgh and have been able to trade on being the most likely successful anti-Tory vote."
| 21 st November 1996 | 6 th April 1995 | ||||||
| Moyra Stewart |  | 508 | 38.4% | Iain MacDonald |  | 619 | 40.2% |
 | 331 | 25.0% | Nanette Lawrence | | 507 | 33.0% | |
| Ind | 210 | 15.9% | William Sutherland | Ind | 412 | 26.8% | |
 | 138 | 10.4% | |||||
| 137 | 10.3% | |||||
| Lib Dem gain from Labour | Lib Dem maj. | 177 | 13.4% | Lab gain | Lab maj. | 112 | 6.8% |
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