William Tinning in the Herald 30 th August 2001.
| 'Scotland's youngest council leader was officially toppled from power last night after four rebel councillors who resigned from the Labour party voted with the SNP/Scottish Socialist opposition at a special council meeting to elect a new leader. Councillor Andy White, deposed leader of West Dunbartonshire Council, who is in his early 30s, was defeated 12-10 by Councillor Danny McCafferty, one of the four rebels.' William Tinning in the Herald 30 th August 2001. | |
Labour looks well placed to continue leading Scotland's ruling coalition after next May's elections, but could face municipal meltdown in the forgotten elections taking place on the same day.
A PA survey shows a continued slippage in the party's vote in council by-elections which, on top of a relatively poor performance in the last contests in 1999, could leave it with only a handful of authorities.
This could be enough to convince even Labour diehards they could not do much worse under proportional representation, on which a draft bill has been promised at Holyrood.
Four years ago the party surprisingly ended up with a majority on just 15 of the 32 Scottish councils.
By-election losses or defections at Aberdeen, Inverclyde, Fife, Renfrewshire, South Ayrshire and West Dunbartonshire have reduced this to nine.
Analysis of 23 by-elections this year showed Labour's vote share dropping in each of the 12 seats it fought.
It lost four - two to Liberal Democrats in dramatic landslides at Aberdeen and one each to the Scottish National Party and independent in Fife.
Average vote shares in five seats fought each time by all four major parties were: Labour -12.4 %, SNP -0.3 %, Tory - 5.6 %, and Lib Dems - boosted by their twin truimphs at Aberdeen - +16.5 %.
Add on three further contests fought each time by Labour, SNP and Tories gives total figures of Labour - 10.9 %, SNP - 1.2 % and Tory - 3.1 %.
However, Labour's slide quickened in the second half of the year with figures based on four contests of Labour - 13.4 %, SNP -4.3 % and Tory - 3.1 %.
On these kinds of movements Labour would see its majorities go at East Ayrshire, Edinburgh and West Lothian, leaving it with only six authorities.
Its best hope of staving off such an outcome may be the lacklustre performance of the SNP, which had one by-election gain in Fife, but lost to Tories in Aberdeenshire.
In many of the key councils, Labour's main challenger is the SNP.
The Tories again have a hard struggle to win any councils. Their position is not as bad as shown by their vote share slump in the the comparable results as they increased by an average 13 % in three rural contests not fought by Labour.
In addition to their win from the SNP, they gained two seats from Lib Dems at Scottish Borders. Their best - and outside - chance of control would seem to be at Perth and Kinross, also an SNP target.
The Lib Dem's chances of taking Aberdeen have been boosted by their by-election truimphs. Their one other hope at Inverclyde seems a stiff target, but might be achived if they hold on to a seat gained since 1999 in a by-election.
Interest has been added to the battle at Labour's traditional Midlothian stronghold, after the Lib Dems stepped up efforts in its Penicuik area, which has been included in their Tweedale, Ettrick and Lauderdale constituency.
Labour is probably safe in North Ayrshire where it would lose on a 9.7 % swing to both Conservative and SNP.
Nicola Sturgeon, SNP election co-ordinator, said: "The SNP is best positioned to take advantage of Labour's council woes and end its dominance of local governement.
She said a swing of less than 4 % would give the SNP control of Dundee, Perth and Kinross, east Ayrshire and West Lothian.
Patricia Ferguson, Labour's campaign coordinator, said: "It's wrong to base a prediction for next year's council elections on past by-election results.
"Across Scotland, Labour has delivered in local government and people will remember."
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