Alf Young, Policy Editor of the Herald to Jack McConnell, 15 th April 2003.
| 'In a world where your prime minister and President Bush can run into Iraq to actually force regime change and say the people of Iraq should have a say in their own destiny, what's actually wrong with the people of Scotland having a say over their own constitutional affairs?' Alf Young, Policy Editor of the Herald to Jack McConnell, 15 th April 2003. | |
Usually written off unfairly as the forgotten elections, the local polls on May 1 might not have the kudos of the Holyrood vote, but this year they are set to have just as much drama.
With Labour riding high in the national polls on the back of victory in Iraq, the battle for the country's 1222 council seats is expected to intensify as opposition parties realise it could be their best chance of frustrating the executive.
One of the biggest myths about local government in Scotland is that Labour has it in its pocket.
One-party statelets are the exception rather than the rule, and Labour's near monopolies of power in Glasgow and Midlothian - achieved despite getting less than half the vote- are atypical.
In 1999, when the last local elections were held, Labour emerged with outright control of 15 of Scotland's 32 councils.
Eleven were hung, and the next largest grouping after Labour was the Independents. They controlled five island and rural councils outright and shared power in two others.
In the past four years the picture has deteriorated for Labour, and it has lost power in five councils where it once had overall control - Aberdeen, Fife, Inverclyde, Renfrewshire, and West Dunbartonshire.
It has also lost minority control over east Dunbartonshire to the Lib Dems and Falkirk to the SNP.
It means that the party has full control of less than a third of all councils as it goes into the elections. The SNP is chasing hardest in Dundee, East Ayrshire, and West Lothian, while the Tories have scented blood in South Ayrshire and Stirling.
However, Labour's biggest loss could well be in Edinburgh, where the Lib Dems and Tories are within five seats of being able to form a joint administration.
Even in Glasgow, where Labour holds 74 of 79 seats, party activists are bracing themselves. The received wisdom is that any Labour ward with a majority of less than 200 is likely to fall, meaning eight wins for the SNP and one for the Lib Dems.
Hardly a revolution, but still a huge jolt to the Glasgow Labour monolith.
The Nationalists, for all their boasts about SNP councils, have overall control in just Angus and Clackmannanshire, and share power in just three more - Falkirk, Dumfries and Galloway, and Argyll and Bute.
A slip from this low level would be plain humiliating.
Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University's department of government, predicts that if Labour polls 36 % the little will change, but if, as some pre-Baghdad surveys suggest, it is below 30 %, 'then we are in for a bit of a bonfire'.
Aberdeen City
A scandal over the local football stadium cost Labour overall control in a by-election last year. Lib Dems will be pushing.
Dundee City Council
The SNP's top target. The party currently has 10 councillors to Labour's 12 in a council of 29.
City of Edinburgh
Labour, already under pressure over congestion charging, could lose overall control of the capital.
East Renfrewshire
This council is a top target for the Tories, who currently have eight wards to Labour's nine.
Fife
The taint of henry McLeish still hangs over Fife, and since his fall from grace in November 2001, Labour has lost overall control of the council. It will need to fight hard to recover.
Inverclyde
Labour has lost overall control since 1999, and now forms a minority administration. The Lib Dems are one ward from taking over.
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