 | 'The main satisfaction for the SNP was that it not only achieved a significant swing from Labour but that it also comfortably saw off a challenge from the Liberal Democrats.' Robbie Dinwoodie, Chief Scottish Political Correspondent in the Herald, 30 th September 2005. |  |
By-election Livingston
Labour breathed a collective sigh of relief in Livingston last night as the party held on to the seat with a drastically reduced majority.
The SNP had needed a 15% swing to take the seat formerly held by the late Robin Cook. But, as in the case of so many other by-elections of recent times, it came up just short, with the party's candidate, Angela Constance, just failing to beat Labour's Jim Devine.
The 20-point slump in turnout Ð from 58% at the general election in May to 38% Ð had caused Labour strategists some unease. Anything under 40% made the outcome unpredictable. "It's out of our comfort zone," said one.
The main satisfaction for the SNP was that it not only achieved a significant swing from Labour but that it also comfortably saw off a challenge from the Liberal Democrats.
"They were saying it was a two-horse race between them and Labour so this is a humiliation for them," said a member of the nationalist team. "The LibDem bubble has well and truly burst."
The SNP's stated target of winning 20 seats at the 2007 Holyrood election depends on an 8.1% swing from Labour, so last night was seen as encouraging in that light.
Labour were happy to get the result, though, and confident that by the next general election Mr Devine would be able to rebuild a healthy majority.
The by-election was caused by the death of Mr Cook and its early days were overshadowed by the murder of the local schoolboy, Rory Blackhall, and the suicide of his killer.
Mr Cook, a former foreign secretary and leader of the House of Commons, collapsed and died of a heart attack on August 6 while hillwalking with his wife, Gaynor, near the 2365ft summit of Ben Stack, in Sutherland.
Mr Devine, who acted as an election agent for Mr Cook, was on hand to help the family deal with the tragedy, and he helped organise Mr Cook's funeral at the High Kirk of St Giles in Edinburgh.
The 52-year-old is a leading figure in Unison, the public sector union. As well as being election agent for Mr Cook, Mr Devine was best man at the MP's second wedding.
He was believed to carry the support of Gordon Brown, the chancellor, as well as Mr Cook's family and he saw off strong challenges from two leading local Labour figures, John Duncan, the branch secretary, and Willie Dunn, local party chairman and deputy leader of West Lothian Council, to win the nomination.
He made one slip early on in the campaign under media questioning, appearing to dismiss the Iraq war as a "minor policy issue" when he was trying to make the point that it was not featuring as a major issue on the doorsteps.
He also reacted angrily during an early hustings when put under pressure on the issue of proposed cuts in fire service cover.
Labour then kept the candidate away from the media for much of the rest of the campaign unless he was surrounded by senior politicians.
He did not attend the main hustings of the campaign, in Loganlea Miners' Club in the Labour heartland of Addiewell, and only turned up at a final hustings meeting at the eleventh hour after citing another engagement.
What Labour's low-key campaign set out to do was to dampen down debate, prevent the SNP in particular from building the momentum they would need to achieve a 15% swing, and sit on the 13,097 majority bequeathed by Mr Cook.
The great imponderable had been whether the affection in which Robin Cook had been held would be retained by Labour, or whether in his absence Livingston could become a marginal constituency, open to SNP advances in the new town itself and with a dwindling Labour hold on surrounding towns and villages. Now we have the answer.
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