Livingston by-election 2005

'The main talking point was the swing of 10.2 per cent to the Scottish National Party, which already has a strong council presence in the area and which had Labour on the back foot throughout the campaign over the downgrading of the local hospital. If that sort of swing was repeated throughout Scotland at the next big electoral test - the Scottish Parliament elections in 2007 - the SNP would win more than 50 seats at Holyrood, putting it in position to become the largest single party and able to lead a coalition administration.' Angus Macleod in the Times, 1 st October 2005.

Nationalist surge in by-election

By Angus Macleod, Scottish Political Editor in the Times 1 st October 2005

LABOUR was breathing a huge sigh of relief yesterday after it held on to its Livingston seat in the by-election caused by the death of Robin Cook.

But the party saw its majority fall sharply from the 13,000 achieved by the former Foreign Secretary in MayÕs general election to one of only 2,680 for Jim Devine, Mr CookÕs constituency agent and aide for 23 years, and the partyÕs candidate on Thursday. Turnout also fell dramatically, from 58 per cent in May to 38.5 per cent.

The main talking point was the swing of 10.2 per cent to the Scottish National Party, which already has a strong council presence in the area and which had Labour on the back foot throughout the campaign over the downgrading of the local hospital.

If that sort of swing was repeated throughout Scotland at the next big electoral test - the Scottish Parliament elections in 2007 - the SNP would win more than 50 seats at Holyrood, putting it in position to become the largest single party and able to lead a coalition administration.

But the Nationalists will be disappointed that Angela Constance, their candidate, did not make the breakthrough that would have had Labour in Scotland panicking. The SNP share of the vote was 32.7 per cent, up 11 percentage points on May. LabourÕs was 41.8 per cent, down 9.3 per cent on May.

Mr CookÕs vote in May held up well because his high profile stance against the war in Iraq meant that he did not suffer the backlash that Labour in other parts of Scotland had to endure as voters switched to the Liberal Democrats.

Iraq may still have been a factor in keeping Labour voters away from the Livingston poll, but all the parties reported that local issues had been a more dominant campaign theme.

The Liberal DemocratsÕ Charles Dundas came third and kept the 15 per cent share of the vote his party won in May. The Lib Dems said they were happy with the result but were privately disappointed that they did not come closer to ousting the SNP from second place.

Gordon Lindhurst for the Scottish Conservatives polled fewer than 2,000 votes and was badly squeezed, with his share of the vote dipping from 9 per cent in May to 6.7 per cent.

Six other candidates, including one from the Scottish Greens and one from the Scottish Socialists, polled fewer than 1,200 votes between them.

Alex Salmond, the Scottish National Party leader, said that the Livingston result showed that the Nationalists were the only party challenging Labour in Scotland and the only party making progress in elections. 'On this showing, we would take 28 first-past-the-post seats at the 2007 Holyrood elections, more than our target of 20, and put us in the driving seat to win power,' he said.

Mr Devine becomes an MP at the age of 52. He backed Mr Cook over Iraq and as a former senior official with Unison, is now a candidate for the partyÕs 'awkward squad' at Westminster. He attacked his opponentsÕ campaign tactics in raising concerns about the future of acute services at the townÕs St JohnÕs Hospital. He added: 'I am very, very proud to be going to Westminster to represent the values of this constituency - full employment, social justice and dignity for our pensioners. These were RobinÕs values, these are my values.'

RESULTS

Jim Devine (Lab) 12,319;
Angela Constance (SNP) 9,639;
Charles Dundas (Liberal Democrat) 4,362;
Gordon Lindhurst (Conservative) 1993;
David Robertson (Greens) 529;
Steven Nimmo (Scottish Socialists) 407;
Peter Adams (UKIP) 108;
Melville Brown (Independent) 55;
John Allman (Alliance for Change) 33;
Brian Gardner (Socialist Party of Great Britain) 32.

Labour Majority 2,680
Swing 10.22 Labour to SNP
Electorate 76,376 Turnout 29,477 (38.59 per cent)