Livingston by-election 2005

'As for the results themselves, it threw up the strange concept of the main opposition party at Holyrood doing well . . . but at the wrong by-election. The Livingston result for the Westminster seat held by the late Robin Cook was an impressive, if not brilliant, one for the Nationalists, who recorded a 10 per cent swing from Labour. They are posing a new 'West Lothian Question' for Labour and fought a focused campaign, keeping Labour's Jim Devine on the back foot.' Angus Macleod in the Sunday Times, 1 st October 2005.

Countdown to 2007 starts here . . . but where have all the voters gone?

By Angus Macleod in the Times 1 st October 2005

The by-elections in Scotland present a worrying trend but offer few clues to politicians ahead of the next Holyrood election.

THE voters of Cathcart and Livingston, or at least the minority who bothered to exercise their democratic prerogative, have spoken . . . and left Scotland's political parties thoroughly confused. Thursday night's two by-elections have produced a series of mixed messages and provided little or no guidance on what will happen in the 2007 elections for Holyrood.

there was, though, one unmistakable theme, which should disturb anyone who cares for old-fashioned concepts such as democratic accountability and voter involvement. there was a mass abstention in both constituencies that culminated in cathcart recording the lowest by-election turnout in modern scottish political history. livingston was a little better, but only a little.

there is now a distinct probability that 2007 will see a parliament elected in edinburgh by fewer than half of scotland's voters. if the advocates of devolution thought they had already seen a few crises in the parliament's short history, well, they ain't seen nothing yet . . .

whether this abstentionism is a result of the death of ideology or the demands of modern lifestyles or the conviction that 'it doesn't matter who wins, they're all the same' or simply that voting is not 'cool', such abysmal turnouts presage a full-blown crisis in the democratic process in scotland.

it has come to something when a council by-election in fife attracts a higher proportion of voters (41 per cent) than a by-election for holyrood (31.9 per cent) or westminster (38 per cent). not that the fife council turnout was anything to crow about, either.

in cathcart, we had a by- election born out of circumstances (the previous msp's pyrotechnical propensities) that hit the headlines. there were big local issues such as the downgrading of the infirmary. the media's coverage of the campaign hardly wavered. and yet fewer than one in three voted. for voter engagement with devolution, read despair.

as for the results themselves, it threw up the strange concept of the main opposition party at holyrood doing well . . . but at the wrong by-election.

the livingston result for the westminster seat held by the late robin cook was an impressive, if not brilliant, one for the nationalists, who recorded a 10 per cent swing from labour. they are posing a new 'west lothian question' for labour and fought a focused campaign, keeping labour's jim devine on the back foot.

the trouble for the nationalists is that doing well in elections for westminster is almost beside the point. the route to their cherished referendum on scottish independence is via holyrood and there must have been a few nationalists on thursday night who would have gladly transposed the party's performance in livingston for the insipid one in cathcart.

not since the heady days of govan in the 1980s has glasgow been a happy hunting ground for the snp. but this by-election was as near an open goal as they are going to get in labour's west of scotland heartlands. with the saga of a thoroughly disgraced former labour msp in the background, local fury about the downgrading of the victoria infirmary, the highest council tax in scotland and, despite jack mcconnell's best efforts, a community sickened by antisocial behaviour, the snp could hardly have designed a more propitious poll. their conference a week ago had been given benevolent media coverage in the days leading up to the by-election.

and yet the snp missed the open goal. whichever way you look at it, a swing of 3.66 per cent does not add up to the momentum an opposition party should be exhibiting at this stage of the scottish electoral cycle.

the snp was undone by a poor candidate who had not learnt her lines and who seemed to think that saying she was local was enough � and by a labour candidate in charles gordon, a busy streetfighter, who fought a canny if defensive campaign as the defender of cathcart. labour's damage limitation tactic worked and the cathcart result made alex salmond's target of 20 more first-past-the-post seats in 2007 look plain daft. the fact remains that the 3.66 per cent swing in cathcart to the snp would only return them to the position they held in the scottish parliament before the 2003 holyrood election setback. the prospect of four more years in scottish parliamentary opposition in 2007 could see the strains in the nationalist ranks reach breaking point, with mr salmond's leadership well and truly on the line.

the party's policy pledges on public services have had a belated makeover for 2007 and it must use these to present itself as a realistic alternative government. the problem for the snp at a national election remains: how do you sell independence to the reluctant scots and win? not that labour can take much comfort. in both constituencies the evidence was that many among labour's core vote stayed at home. mr devine, the candidate in livingston, did not impress anyone by staying away from a hustings and he invited invidious comparisons with his illustrious predecessor and mentor by doing so. one labour official at the cathcart count summed up the party's attitude to these by-elections best when he said: 'a win's a win, bugger the majorities.'

for the rest, the conservative revival in scotland is as far away as ever, although the personable richard cook, the tory candidate in cathcart and easily the most accomplished candidate in either by-election, pushed the party's share of the vote up by 2 per cent. for such small mercies, the scottish conservatives are truly thankful. they should now find a winnable seat in the scottish parliament for mr cook, pronto.

the liberal democrats did not on thursday really justify their rating after may's general election as the second biggest party in scotland in terms of mps and share of vote. they had been hoping that the iraq effect would still work for them in livingston, giving them second place above the snp. it was not to be. the lib dem performance was acceptable, nothing more.

the scottish socialist party, once the darlings of the local media, can make no such claim. they are seemingly in terminal decline after the internal 'coup' that saw the electrifying tommy sheridan stand down as leader. without mr sheridan leading from the front, the ssp bubble has burst.

pat lally, the 79-year-old former lord provost of glasgow, who fought cathcart as an independent, has surely fought his last campaign. this latest one never recovered from the ludicrous launch that saw him and his supporters belting out a variation on the song which will forever be associated with scotland's 1978 world cup footballing failure.

with this little electoral snapshot out of the way, it is all downhill now to 2007, barring any more by-elections. a repeat of the cathcart result would be a case of 'plus �a change'. a repeat of the livingston result and we could be in hung parliament territory at holyrood. scotland . . . the new germany, anyone?