 | 'Iraq probably has no weapons of mass destruction in the commonly understood sense of the term - namely a credible device capable of being delivered against a strategic city target. It probably still has biological toxins and battlefield chemical munitions, but it has had them since the 1980s when US companies sold Saddam anthrax agents and the then British Government approved chemical and munitions factories..' Rt Hon Robin Cook, 17 th March 2003. |  |
Scottish nationalists gathered last week in parliament's ancient Westminster Hall to commemorate the 700th anniversary of the execution of William Wallace, the popular hero who fought an invading English army and inspired the film Braveheart.
But even as they did so, campaigning was getting under way in a modern battle that will test whether Scottish nationalism has a future as a political force.
This weekend both Labour and the Scottish National party were out on the streets of Livingston, a new town between Edinburgh and Glasgow, at the start of a byelection to fill the parliamentary vacancy left by Robin Cook's death.
Amid the mourning for the former foreign secretary, both parties have a lot at stake.
Cook held his Livingston seat at this year's general election with a majority of 13,097 and more than half the vote.
But his party knows that Scotland has a history of byelection upsets and Labour is under pressure to show that it can hold on to its core vote.
The pressure is even greater on the SNP. If Labour can pull through to win - as it privately expects to do - the outcome could provoke a crisis within the pro-independence movement.
The SNP came second in Livingston last May. But after a disappointing general election, it is desperate to restore its credibility before the Scottish elections in 18 months. It slipped behind the Liberal Democrats in votes and MPs in Scotland for the first time, despite winning two target seats off Labour.
Now the SNP needs to reverse a trend which has seen its vote drop at every election since 2001 to 17.7%, 11 points down on its high showing in the first elections to the Scottish parliament.
The charge being made by opponents is that the SNP has badly lost its way under devolution, split between fundamentalists who put independence before all else and modernisers who want to win power in a devolved Scottish government.
Livingston, a developing West Lothian town where many people work in new businesses such as the BSkyB call centre, is exactly the sort of territory the party has to conquer if it is to advance out of its largely rural east coast strongholds.
All sides expect local issues to dominate - the fate of the local hospital is a leading topic, with Labour hinting privately that it may be about to secure increased status while other parties talk about closure.
And most also expect a short campaign, with polling taking place on either September 22 or September 29.
That could leave the election overlapping the SNP annual conference, something one SNP source described yesterday as "a shoddy move".
Labour selected its candidate, Jim Devine, on Thursday night.
A Unison official who served not only as Cook's agent but as best man at his last wedding, Mr Devine will campaign on his friend's legacy, including Cook's opposition to the Iraq war.
Labour's Scottish headquarters make no secret of the fact that their candidate opposed the war too and shares Cook's doubts about New Labour.
"I will never, ever, be Robin Cook," he said last week. "But if I am successfully elected, people can at least say that I laced his boots."
But although Mr Devine starts the race as firm favourite Labour is making no public promises about his chances.
The SNP has picked another local candidate, Angela Constance, and points to its byelection record as proof it could pull off a surprising win.
The party argues that the swing in the byelection that followed the death of former Labour leader John Smith, would have been big enough to give it victory in Livingston. It says this is evidence that the death of a popular MP does not stop voters switching sides.
They admit, though, that the party's recent high-profile role in the campaign to save Scottish regiments will make little impact in Livingston.
And the party faces a scrap for leftwing votes with the Scottish Socialist party, which picked up several seats at the 2003 Scottish elections.
Colin Fox, the party's leader, said: "The SNP are going nowhere, they are starting miles behind and flatlining."
He predicts that the SNP will only just hang on to second place behind Labour and argues that in the wake of this year's G8 protests in Edinburgh, Scotland is ready for a far left alternative.
Lord Rennard, the chief executive of the Liberal Democrats and Britain's most experienced byelection campaigner, also agrees that the SNP "are in retreat".
He added: "It's a very long time since they won a byelection and they face a dilemma about what they stand for now that there is a Scottish parliament."
Lord Rennard claims that his party's candidate, Charles Dundas, stands a chance of overhauling the SNP - pointing to a five-point rise in the Liberal Democrat vote in the seat in May.
That looks unlikely. But as one nationalist MP admitted last week: "The contest comes at an interesting time as there has been a lot of soul-searching within the SNP.
"There is some real hard thinking going on about the 2007 election."
The party remains the fourth biggest force in the House of Commons. But eyecatching policies such as pulling Scotland out of Nato or creating a separate Scottish Olympic team are under pressure in the face of modernising efforts to shape it into a party of government.
Alex Salmond, the party's most familiar face and who returned to the leadership in 2004, is seen as a traditionalist. But he now faces a younger generation of MPs, such as Angus McNeil, who won a seat off Labour in 2005.
"They don't have the scars of the 1970s and 80s, they are a generation that has an appetite for political power who don't want to spend 20 years kicking their heels on the backbenches," said one MP last week.
Privately, Mr Salmond has told allies that the 2007 election - the third since devolution - is the one where the SNP must make a breakthrough.
Some even speculate that a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, who share power with Labour, might be possible.
But first it must retain credibility in Livingston next month where a bad result would leave dreams of that sort looking distant indeed.
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