The Glasgow East By-election 2008

'I expected the Scotsman banner headline this morning would be: FRESH BLOW FOR SNP AS NEARLY 11,000 VOTERS STAY LOYAL TO LABOUR.' Urban Guerrilla in the Evening News, 25 th July 2008.

The scale of the humiliation is hard to dodge

From Evening News, 25 th July 2008

THE Glasgow East by-election result is a disaster for Labour and Prime Minister Gordon Brown. No excuses about mid-term unpopularity can disguise the catastrophe of losing a constituency where last time the party took six out of ten of all the votes cast.

Now the SNP's John Mason has captured the seat with a 22 per cent swing, turning Labour's previous 13,507 majority into a SNP majority of 365.

The result is a personal and political triumph for Alex Salmond who made frequent appearances throughout the campaign and staked his own reputation on the outcome, bravely predicting a political "earthquake" and declaring that the contest was a trial of strength between his government and Gordon Brown's.

Despite his confidence, pollsters and pundits had predicted Labour would probably manage to hold on to the seat by the skin of its teeth. Even as the voters went to the polls yesterday, some of Mr Salmond's own MSPs expected Labour to scrape home. But the First Minister's optimism was proved right and Labour has suffered another electoral humiliation hot on the heels of the Crewe & Nantwich by-election defeat by the Tories in May.

Labour was generally judged to have chosen the right candidate for the seat in Margaret Curran despite the initial fiasco surrounding the party's aborted selection of an unwilling local councillor. Ms Curran put up a good fight, although her campaign was surprisingly gaffe-prone. But in the end the mood turned out to be against Labour. The SNP's honeymoon with Scotland's voters following last year's Holyrood elections just seems to go on and on.

There is inevitable speculation that the loss of one of Labour's safest seats could hasten Mr Brown's departure, and certainly the scale of the humiliation is difficult to dodge. But Mr Salmond says he believes the Prime Minister is more likely to change policies than change himself.

Mr Brown was no doubt hoping even a narrow win would give him some welcome respite from the doom-laden speculation which has surround his future. But instead he now has an even gloomier situation to confront.

Labour loyalists searching for some crumbs of comfort might look back to two previous by-election defeats in Glasgow Ð when the SNP took Govan in 1973 and 1988 Ð and recall that in both cases Labour recaptured the seat at the following general election.

The same could well happen with Glasgow East. But right now that does not matter. The point is the SNP has staged a sensational upset Ð and not only Alex Salmond, but also Tory leader David Cameron, are left smiling.