 | 'Suggestions from Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, that it was a "test of strength" between him and Mr Brown were said by Labour strategists to have gone down badly. But Mr Salmond again confounded them and remains on an extraordinary political high.' Philip Webster, Political Editor and Angus Macleod in the Times, 25 th July 2008. |  |
Gordon Brown's worst nightmare was realised early today as the Scottish National Party triumphed by taking Glasgow East, one of Labour's safest seats.
The hopes of Labour strategists that their disastrous run of electoral setbacks was about to end were dashed as the SNP's John Mason achieved the enormous 22 per cent swing required to topple the long-time stronghold.
The nationalists overturned a Labour majority of 13,507, triumphing by 365 votes, after polling a total of 11,277 to Labour's 10,912.
While Mr Brown is not under immediate threat, it was the worst possible result as he prepares for a summer holiday and tries to chart a plan for his own and Labour's recovery.
The result will intensify doubts among Labour MPs about Mr Brown's ability to win a general election and could spell trouble at Labour's conference in the autumn when a weakened Prime Minister will have trouble getting his way on a range of policy issues.
Many MPs and key ministers leave for their holidays this weekend and with the Commons not sitting for months the chances of a challenge to Mr Brown are slim. But MPs are likely to be spending a lot of time on the telephone to each other as they ponder ways of easing their party's plight.
Cabinet ministers already admit privately their dilemma that any move to unseat Mr Brown would make the party look as if it was consumed by internal affairs rather than dealing with the nation's problems, and could end up losing the party votes rather than gaining them.
Another differing school of thought among ministers is that a change of leadership over the next year could at least cut Labour's losses at the 2010 election.
Few think that anything can happen before the autumn and the betting among most is that the crunch point will come next spring if the local elections are again poor for Labour and the party is then only one year out from the general election.
Mr Brown faces Labour's National Policy Forum today knowing that rallying his party will be an even harder job. He then leaves for a holiday near the Suffolk coast but it will be hard for him to avoid thinking about a survival strategy.
Labour's Margaret Curran was widely seen as a strong candidate and fought a deliberately local campaign to try to keep the spotlight off the party nationally. But she could not stand in the way of the national tide of discontent with Mr Brown and his government and lost a majority that stood at 13,507 at the last election. As a result Labour's Commons majority falls to 63, its lowest since 1997.
After an initial hiccup when the expected Labour candidate pulled out, the party opted for a well-known figure in Ms Curran. Suggestions from Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, that it was a "test of strength" between him and Mr Brown were said by Labour strategists to have gone down badly.
But Mr Salmond again confounded them and remains on an extraordinary political high.
While Ms Curran often campaigned on her own, despite the arrival in Glasgow of a shoal of ministers and MPs, Mr Mason was often flanked by Mr Salmond and other leading SNP figures.
The SNP made much of Mr Brown's troubles and the recent rise in the cost of living and tried to make it a competition between a comparatively popular SNP administration at Holyrood and a deeply unpopular UK government at Westminster.
Ms Curran campaigned up to the wire. Her activity yesterday included a blitz of the checkouts at an Asda supermarket in the Parkhead area.
Ms Curran said: "As I promised at the beginning, I am working right up to 10pm taking nothing for granted and working for every vote. I think Labour has had a very positive message for the voters and I have had a very positive response to the message."
The constituency basked in blazing sunshine throughout much of the day which would normally be expected to favour Labour in getting its vote out.
But a rival theory holds that on a sunny day in Glasgow, in the middle of the city's traditional industrial holiday period, voters may be tempted out for the day but it would not be to polling stations.
Mr Salmond claimed that it was the first by-election for 20 years where the cost of living has been a dominant issue.
Right from the start he said that his party was set to pull off a "political earthquake".
The start of Labour's campaign was delayed by problems selecting a candidate, making the first few days of the campaign a "lost weekend" for the party.
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