 | 'In Falkirk the nationalists need 18% from Labour, a tall order. A few weeks ago
they were itching for the scrap, but Mr Canavan's bizarre dithering about
rejoining his old comrades might have changed the script to Labour's
advantage.' Murray Richie in the Herald, 18 th December 2000 |  |
Not at every by-election do you find a dozen Santas in SNP rosettes, a socialist candidate campaigning from behind bars, or electors being prised from their firesides by Labour on the longest night of the year and persuaded to go voting four days before Christmas.
But this jingle-bells by-election is also different for a more unusual reason: it is the first contest provoked in living memory by an MP simply taking the huff with his own party and walking off the job, forcing an unwanted by-election as an act of either revenge or pique, or both.
Dennis Canavan has his place in political history as the MP who served in Westminster for 25 years only to be denounced by the late Donald Dewar as "just not good enough" for Holyrood. He got his own back as an independent when Falkirk West's voters anointed him as a martyr with the biggest majority of any MSP.
It was condign punishment for Labour, but now Dennis is accused of trying to kick his old party when it is down. In fact he might have done it a favour.
The parties daily fall over themselves in the rush to find the suitable metaphor: nationalists say Dennis is the dog that does not bark. So far he has only growled. On the basis that, if you say it often enough it must be true, Labour keeps insisting Dennis is not the issue. The Tories see Dennis as a spectre at the feast and the Liberal Democrats, being Liberal Democrats, say they're not terribly sure how the Dennis factor will play.
Only the Scottish Socialists have fallen before Dennis, beseeching him to come to their aid. He probably won't, having already declined to share their platform. Dennis is keeping shtum.
If Labour is right and he really is not a factor, then what is? Politicians have no shortage of answers - and they provide yet more reasons for Falkirk West being different.
They will tell you that, when Jim Sillars won Govan for the SNP, the voters were peeved because their Labour MP had swanned off to Brussels for a fat salary, taking their loyalty for granted. The same thing almost happened in Hamilton South when George Robertson left for Brussels and the nationalists notched up a startling 22.6% swing.
In other recent contests, the swings from Labour to the SNP have been substantial. In Ayr (where the Tories won) the Labour-SNP swing was 13%, much of it due to a disillusioned Labour MSP abandoning Holyrood, and the row over Section 28. In Paisley South it was 11% on the back of local scandals, and in Anniesland it was 7%, not bad in Labour's safest seat at Holyrood.
In normal times these would be seen as huge advances for the SNP except, of course, that they were all defeats. It seems the SNP in recent times has found the losing habit which is why it desperately wants a win in Falkirk West.
In Falkirk the nationalists need 18% from Labour, a tall order. A few weeks ago they were itching for the scrap, but Mr Canavan's bizarre dithering about rejoining his old comrades might have changed the script to Labour's advantage.
Most of the women queueing for the bingo in Falkirk the other day happily accepted Labour stickers being slapped on their coats. But electors burdened with Christmas shopping did the same for the SNP. The first three people I spoke to protested indignantly that they would not be voting because "it changes nothing." It is a common theme, suggesting a low turnout.
What effect the vast publicity surrounding Mr Canavan will have is difficult to discern. It played no part in the views of Charles McCarthy, retired fitter, who strode past Labour canvassers proclaiming that only independence mattered in Scotland. "Once we get independence we can go back to voting Labour if we want - but independence is the priority."
Douglas Gillies, a retired oilfield consultant, disagreed. He will vote Labour as his father did before him because, he says, only Labour can trusted with the health service and restoring the railways. Don't smile: the local rail link, despite current mockery, matters hugely because commuting to Glasgow and Edinburgh is crucial to local employment, and Falkirk's health service is at the bottom of the efficiency league in Scotland and a big Labour weakness.
Neither Mr McCarthy nor Mr Gillies - nor those angry non-voters - mentioned Dennis Canavan.
With all respect to the earnest endeavours of the LibDems's Hugh O'Donnell and the Tories' Craig Stevenson, this must surely be a two-horse race between Labour and the SNP. With Tommy Sheridan, SSP leader, now back in prison last night for refusing to pay a fine, his party's candidate, Iain Hunter, has followed by example, getting himself arrested briefly after a protest.
Reporters salute his publicity-conscious campaign manager for the best quote of the contest: "The protest was a great success - the candidate's in the jail."
Eric Joyce, Labour candidate, is at last coming out to fight at hustings after having been hidden by minders until this week. He is unlikely to receive any encouragement from Mr Canavan. After all, it was Mr Canavan who denounced him as a "Blairite carpetbagger."
David Kerr, SNP candidate, has doggedly held daily news conferences - eleven at the latest count - to Labour's two so far. His problem has been finding Mr Joyce in order to have even a hope of landing a blow on him. Without a spectacular haymaker, Mr Kerr will continue to struggle to turn this contest into a dogfight in the midst of all the seasonal good will. But there's time yet.
Candidates: Iain Hunter (Scottish Socialist), Eric Joyce (Labour), David Kerr (Scottish National Party), Hugh O'Donnell (Scottish Liberal Democrat), Craig Stevenson (Scottish Conservative and Unionist).
General election: Dennis Canavan (Lab) 22,772 (59.3%); David Alexander (SNP) 8989 (23.4%; Carol Buchanan (Con) 4639 (12.1%); Derek Houston (SLD) 1970 (5.1%). Lab maj 13,783. Turnout 74.4%.
-Dec 18 th
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