 | 'The Nationalists, dismissed last week by Scottish Secretary John Reid as 'an irrelevance' at the next General Election, have answered in the most dramatic fashion possible by drawing level with Labour in the System Three standings for Westminster.' Robbie Dinwoodie in the Herald, 12 nd October 2000. |  |
Labour rebel Dennis Canavan announces today that he is giving up his Westminster seat from the end of this month, forcing a by-election in Falkirk West. He will remain at Holyrood as the country's only Independent MSP.
The news comes at the same time as the SNP has drawn level with Labour in System Three poll standings for Westminster, with Labour slumping by 12 points.
Mr Canavan says in his column in The Herald today that, when he was elected to the Scottish Parliament, he intended eventually to give up his Commons seat because no-one could do two jobs indefinitely.
However, he accuses the Labour Party leadership of "continuing arrogance and intransigence" in refusing to meet him for discussions, and says he now has "no option but to let the people of Falkirk West give their verdict".
Much of Mr Canavan's huge majority at the last General Election will be regarded as a personal vote, and the SNP will be keen to capitalise in an area where it has been strong in the past.
The Nationalists, dismissed last week by Scottish Secretary John Reid as "an irrelevance" at the next General Election, have answered in the most dramatic fashion possible by drawing level with Labour in the System Three standings for Westminster.
A 12-point meltdown in Labour's support will send shock waves through the ranks of the party's Westminster MPs, while handing a boost to the leadership of the SNP's John Swinney.
The SNP has also surged to a huge lead over Labour in voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament - by 14 points on the first vote, and 13 on the second.
Such a result in a Scottish Election would leave Labour and the Liberal Democrats well short of being able to form a working administration, even although the LibDems' standings have improved this month. The SNP, by contrast, would be only six seats short of the overall majority which it would regard as a mandate to call an independence referendum.
System Three has been asking the question about General Election voting intentions on The Herald's behalf for more than a quarter of a century. Statisticians have to go back to 1976-77 to find a time when, in a three-way split with the Conservatives, the SNP was able to match Labour in Westminster standings.
In marked contrast to the situation in recent polling south of the Border, Scottish Tories have not been the beneficiary of Labour's woes. They are static for Westminster and have actually fallen on both Holyrood votes.
The only comfort for these parties lies in the dates when the poll was carried out - from September 21 to 26, giving both the SNP and the Liberal Democrats a boost off the back of their conferences, but coming too late to be affected by last week's conference rallying calls from Gordon Brown and Tony Blair in Brighton.
There has been evidence over the last few days of Labour easing back into the lead over the Conservatives in UK polls. The latest, by NOP for the Sunday Express, put Labour six points ahead, while ICM for the News of the World had Labour just a point ahead. Labour may be further buoyed by a private poll by NOP which put the party back 11 points ahead of the Tories.
However, The Herald/System Three findings in Scotland are unprecedented for a generation.
On Westminster voting intentions, Labour support has slumped by 12 points to 33%, while the SNP standings have climbed five points to draw level. The LibDems have leapt eight points to reach 17%, but the Conservatives are unchanged on 15%.
Only the Westminster voting system would prevent a haemorrhage of Labour seats. Nevertheless, Labour MPs will be alarmed and, unless there is a marked turn-round soon, then underlying resentment in their ranks over the perceived poor performance of Donald Dewar's administration could bubble to the surface again.
On Holyrood voting intentions for the constituency ballot, Labour support has dipped a further six points after a three-point fall last month, down to an unprecedented 28%, while the SNP has climbed six points to 42%. The LibDems have gone up five points to 14%, while the Tories fell three to 10%. The combined vote of Scottish Socialists, Greens and others dropped two points to 6%.
The regional party list vote also saw a Labour fall, by four points to 25%, while the SNP climbed six points to 38%. Again, the LibDems did well, up three to 15%, while the Tories were down two on 11% and the small parties combined were down three on 10%.
The Scottish Election projections also demonstrate the vagaries of the constituency vote, as an SNP result of this magnitude would pass the point where Labour seats tumble like dominoes, leaving only 11 constituencies surviving in the party's heartlands, according to Dr Malcolm Dickson of Strathclyde University. Labour would then become reliant on 21 additional members for a total of 32 MSPs.
Dr Dickson calculates that, on this showing, the SNP would win 59 seats. Though the SNP would be six seats short of an overall majority, with the Greens and Scottish Socialists supporting the principle of an independent Scotland, it could be within striking distance of its dream.
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