Falkirk West By-election 2000

'I still hope Dennis Canavan is elected to the Scottish Parliament asLabour candidate. Even at this late stage I hope the Labour Party will repent and recognise the injustice which has been done and accept him as the Labour candidate.'
Labour MP for Glasgow Pollok, Ian Davidson, 11 th November 1998.

Seat is key target for SNP

By Malcolm Dickson in the Herald, 12 th November 1998

IRONICALLY, Dennis Canavan's candidacy may electorally help the official Labour candidate. The Falkirk West seat is a key target for the SNP in the central belt. The SNP is already strong in the area and, given its recent strength in the opinion polls, can hope to push Labour hard.

The impact of Mr Canavan standing may be to deflect some of those voters suspicious of New Labour from making the switch to the SNP. Consequently, in the first-past-the-post constituency race, the opposition to the official Labour candidate may split, possibly allowing a more comfortable win.

History does not look kindly on independent candidates. Most recently in 1992, Ron Brown in Edinburgh Leith failed to make a significant impact with only 10.3% of the vote.

In the same election the militant-linked and deselected MP Dave Nellist polled 29% in Coventry South East, with the official Labour candidate only scraping through with 32%.

Under the electoral rules, Mr Canavan may also choose to stand as effectively a one-candidate "party" in the second ballot list vote.

Here he could rely on votes, not only from Falkirk West, but also neighbouring Falkirk East and other constituencies in the Scotland Central region. With around 7-9% of the vote across Central Scotland, with the opinion polls showing the SNP reasonably close to Labour, Mr Canavan could have a reasonable chance of success. - Nov 12

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