Falkirk West

'Mary was great with child, and even as she arrived at the walls of Falk Irk, she went into Labour, which is called Scottish and New.' From Nativity for a Falkirk bairn in the Sunday Herald, 17 th December 2000.

The winner, by 705 votes

Once again, New Labour in Scotland came within a few hundred votes of electoral disaster when their 13,783 majority over the Scottish National Party in Falkirk West was slashed to just 705 votes. After Labour's excellent results in the two Glasgow Anniesland by-elections last month, New Labour's Galloping Major, Eric Joyce was expected to hold Falkirk West, one of Labour's safest seats at the 1997 general election, with a comfortable majority. Instead, in the lowest turnout ever in a post war Scottish by-election, Labour's majority was slashed from five to three figures with a swing of over 16 % from Labour to the SNP.

The Dennis Canavan factor was strangely absent from the campaign and he was not present at the count. The BBC were unable to contact him for comment on the result and it was claimed that he had lost a great deal of influence from the moment that he called off the by-election to seek re-admission to the Labour party and then changed his mind.

In the world of politics, a majority of one is always enough (except in the Scottish devolution referendum of 1979) and Labour can be pleased that they held this seat. However, after the SNP's relatively poor performances in the Glasgow Anniesland by-elections just a month previously, Labour will be bitterly disappointed to have seen its majority here cut from 36.92 % to 3.61 %. This was even smaller than their majority of 5.60 % over the SNP in Falkirk West in the European elections. That election was Labour's worst result in Scotland since 1918 and had seen the narrowest ever gap between Labour and the SNP in a nationwide election.

The BBC's by-election coverage was short but entertaining and confirmed Labour's problems with its image. While the other four parties had opted for younger spokesmen, Labour's representative looked well past his sell-by-date and could easily have passed as William Hague's grandfather. In fact, he proved to be none other than that most invisible of cabinet ministers, Dr John Reid, who claimed that this was a wonderful result for New Labour. Reid then astonished declaring that Labour's real enemy in Scotland was not the the SNP but the Conservatives. Labour's Secretary of State for Scotland seemed unaware aware that the Tories have not had any MPs in Scotland since 1997. It would appear that Reid is spending far too much time in London and is completely out of touch with Scotland and the Scots.

While Labour's poor performance in Falkirk West may not be enough to cause the next general election to be delayed from its expected date on the 3 rd of May 2001, questions will undoubtedly asked in Labour circles as to the wisdom of selecting an ultra-Blairite loyalist in what has shown itself to be a particularly independent constituency. To Tony Blair, Scotland's parliament continues to be seen as nothing more than a 'Parish Council'. New Labour, it would seem, has learned nothing from the Canavan affair and can be expected to continue to impose right-wing Thatcherite policies on Scotland.

For the Scottish National Party, the result was an encouraging one. There was a swing of no less than 16.16 % from Labour to the SNP compared to just 6.69 % in the Anniesland Westmister seat last month. In order to keep up its momentum under new leader John Swinney, the SNP had to prove that they were still capable of winning votes in Labour's heartland area after the disappointments in Glasgow Anniesland. Falkirk West proved that the party can still achieve large swings against Labour while starting from a relatively high percentage of the vote. The result also confirms that the next general election is Scotland will be a uniquely Scottish affair between the Labour party and the Scottish National Party, and not between Labour and the Tories as in England. The major disappointment for the SNP will be that, as in Hamilton South in 1999, they have once again come within a few hundred votes of Labour, but just missed out on winning the seat.

Conservative MSP Phil Gallie said the Tories were looking for around 10 % of the vote - a modest enough Christmas wish for a party which claims it is making an electoral comeback in Scotland. In the event, the Tory vote was fell to just 8.3 %, down by 3.8 % on their disastrous 1997 general election vote when they lost every single one of their Scottish MPs. Ironically, even if the Conservatives do even worse than in 1997 at the next general election, they could still pick up seats like Ayr and Eastwood if the Labour vote collapses as it did in the Ayr Scottish Parliametary by-election when they crashed to third place behind the SNP.

The Scottish Socialist Party came fourth with 5 % of the vote, once again proving that, in the central belt at least, they have replaced the Liberal Democrats as the fourth party of Scottish politics. They also made a major coup when they obtained a seat on BBC Scotland's by-election programme with Rosie Kane, their candidate in Glasgow Anniesland, replacing the jailed Tommy Sheridan. The party will regret that it was not able to gain the endorsement of Dennis Canavan and like Labour in the Perth & Kinross by-election in 1995, the SSP's good result here is slightly tarnised by their claims that the contest would be a three horse race between themselves, Labour and the SNP.

For the Liberal Democrats, the result was yet another electoral disaster which saw the party of government-at-any-price once again beaten into fifth place behind the fledgling Scottish Socialists. As in Hamilton South, they lost their deposit. The Laboural Democrats can take heart that neither of the local football teams put up a candidate so they were spared the humiliation which they experienced last year when they were beaten by Hamilton Accademicals.

Falkirk West Westminster Parliament By-election 21 st December 2000

Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%	% change since 97
	Labour	Major Eric Joyce	8,492	43.54 %	- 15.81 %
	Scottish National Party	David Kerr	7,787	39.93 %	+ 16.50 %
	Conservative & Unionist	Craig Stevenson	1,621	8.31 %	- 3.78 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	Iain Hunter	989	5.07 %	+ 5.07 %
	Liberal Democrat	Hugh O'Donnell	615	3.15 %	- 0.65 %
	Labour regain from Independent	Labour majority	705	3.61 %	- 32.31 %

Westmister Election 1 st May 1997

Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%
	Labour	Dennis Canavan MP	22,772	59.35 %
	Scottish National Party	Cllr David Alexander	8,989	23.43 %
	Conservative & Unionist	Carol Buchanan	4,639	12.09 %
	Liberal Democrat	Derek Houston	1,970	3.80 %
	Labour hold	Labour majority	13,783	35.92 %