Dunfermline & West Fife by-election 2006

'Infamous for being a control freak, and famously confident of his abilities as an election strategist, Brown was always going to be in charge of this one. And that meant carrying the blame when it went horribly wrong. On polling day he was in Moscow at a G7 meeting but demanded to be kept in touch with events back home. Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, cheekily suggested that in the light of the result, Brown should apply to the Russians for political asylum.' Jason Allardyce, Kathleen Nutt and Kenny Farquharson in the Sunday Times, 12 th February 2006.

Focus: A bridge too far

By Jason Allardyce, Kathleen Nutt and Kenny Farquharson in the Sunday Times 12 th February 2006

Dunfermline's Cask Bar was the perfect venue for a victory party. Dark and snug, with pictures of jazz legends on the wall, it served a good pint of Belhaven Best and was just a few doors down from the former video shop used as Labour's by-election campaign HQ.

Everything was sorted for a night of carousing by victorious Labour activists. Everything, that is, except a Labour victory.

In the small hours of Friday morning the winners of the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election celebrated five miles away in an unprepossessing office block next to Inverkeithing railway station.

About 100 exhausted Liberal Democrat activists, some who had been awake since 4.30am delivering leaflets, listened in to the declaration from the count at Queen Anne High school. Against all odds and every pundit's prediction, the Lib Dems' Willie Rennie had written himself into the history books, beating Labour's Catherine Stihler by 1,800 votes and overturning a 11,500 Labour majority.

'There was just an almighty shouting and screaming within the room,' said Tony Martin, 56, a Lib Dem councillor and party activist since he was 15. 'People were throwing themselves at each other as they hurled each other around and held each other.

'I have never been involved in anything like it before in my whole life. People were amazed, really emotional, in tears.' Chardonnay and sausage rolls helped the party to go on to 4am.

At the Cask Bar, pre- ordered bottles of champagne remained respectfully out of sight. Very quickly the desolation of defeat gave way to a more powerful emotion - raw fear. Somebody was going to have to explain this to Gordon Brown.

This had been the chancellor's by-election for two good reasons. His stern-looking home on a rise overlooking the Firth of Forth was in the by-election constituency - in ward 19 to be precise. Also, he was MP for the neighbouring constituency of Kirkcaldy.

Infamous for being a control freak, and famously confident of his abilities as an election strategist, Brown was always going to be in charge of this one. And that meant carrying the blame when it went horribly wrong. On polling day he was in Moscow at a G7 meeting but demanded to be kept in touch with events back home. Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, cheekily suggested that in the light of the result, Brown should apply to the Russians for political asylum.

On Friday morning at Dunfermline's Mercat Cross, with its proud unicorn clutching a saltire shield, one former Labour voter gave his frank opinion of the chancellor. With the collar of his anorak turned up against the chill February wind, 62-year-old Alex Archibald said: 'Gordon Brown is supposed to be a local man but he has ignored what has been going on in this area. Maybe he's too busy worrying about his own tail down there in London. We all see what needs done here, why can't he?' The retired sales manager was born and bred in Fife and was Labour through and through. Yet last week he voted Lib Dem. Labour, he says, no longer cares about the people who gave them power.

Citing the downgrading of the local Queen Margaret hospital and the run-down shabbiness of Dunfermline town centre, he said: 'They have neglected people in this town. They don't listen and they take people for granted.' The question of whether tolls on the Forth Road Bridge would be raised has also exercised the mind of many a Fifer who commutes into Edinburgh.

This weekend the blame-slinging is already well under way in the Labour hierarchy. Given the Lib Dems' extraordinary advance, can any seats in Labour's central belt heartlands now be considered safe? What are the implications for next year's Holyrood elections? And how much of a wake-up call is this for Gordon Brown, a future Labour prime minister who has a Lib Dem as his MP?

IT WAS meant to be a battle for the hearts and minds of the voters of Dunfermline and Fife West - but most of the blows landed by Gordon Brown and Jack McConnell were on each other. The chancellor's relationship with the Scottish first minister has been strained for more than a decade since McConnell backed Tony Blair to succeed John Smith as Labour leader.

In retaliation Brown sought to thwart McConnell's bids to become first minister, supporting Henry McLeish following the death of Donald Dewar and then trying to persuade Wendy Alexander to stand after McLeish's resignation in 2001.

McConnell has warned Brown to keep out of matters that have been devolved from London to Holyrood. The trouble is, the chancellor cannot seem to help himself in a country where he still wields considerable influence.

From the outset of the by-election campaign Brown angered McConnell by micro-managing everything, from approving the candidate - a heavily pregnant 32-year-old who already had a job as an MEP - to deciding the message. When canvassing found that voters did not trust Labour to drop plans for £4 tolls on the Forth Road Bridge, Brown resolved that the message had to change. Weighing into devolved affairs, he and Alistair Darling, the Scottish secretary and transport minister, announced that the toll plan was 'dead in the water'.

If followed a terse telephone conversation with McConnell in which the first minister had made it clear that because he was in coalition with the Lib Dems he simply could not, without their agreement, kill off the idea at this stage.

Despite Brown's use of some robust language to underline his impatience that the issue might cost them votes, McConnell thought he had a deal. 'I couldn't believe it when Gordon announced the next day the opposite of what we thought he had agreed. He just disregarded what Jack said and that became a habit during the campaign,' said a source close to McConnell.

Labour MSP Michael McMahon, one of McConnell's closest allies, added: 'Westminster colleagues have got to appreciate that we now live in a devolved Scotland and although they have got a major responsibility in terms of the governance of this country they have devolved powers to us.'

One source close to McConnell went further, accusing Brown of 'astonishing arrogance' while another ally said the chancellor had acted like 'a wean' and 'become a liability'.

MSPs supportive of the first minister are contrasting last week's campaign with last year's Holyrood by-election in Cathcart caused by the fire-raising conviction of Lord Watson. 'Nobody expected us to hold that seat in the circumstances but we were well disciplined, we focused on local issues and Jack put his personal differences with the candidate (Charlie Gordon) aside. This time the Lib Dems did the same and Brown did the opposite,' said one.

Even some allies of Brown believe his choice of candidate played poorly among sections of the electorate in the former mining community.

'Wrong as it is, some punters in the area are not as enlightened as other people and on the doorsteps we did get people saying they were concerned that they were being asked to vote for a candidate who would be doing two jobs and who was about to go off and have a baby,' said one.

While Darling was last week accepting entire responsibility for the disaster, in a manner befitting somebody who wants to become chancellor, Brown himself knows the result is hugely damaging.

Critics ask how he can now be expected to win a general election for Labour if he cannot even secure victory in a safe seat in his backyard.

Predictably, loyal Brownies lay the blame for last week's defeat - the first time the Lib Dems have taken a Scottish Westminster seat from Labour at a by-election since 1945 - at McConnell's door. They are furious not only over his attitude to the Forth Bridge but also at what they saw as an attempt to undermine Brown's high-profile decision to embrace 'Britishness' in a recent speech. It was designed to reassure English voters that his Scottishness should not count against his ambition to lead Britain. But back at home in Scotland it backfired badly.

Within days of Brown's speech, when McConnell was asked whether Scots should celebrate Britishness, he told a newspaper he felt Scottish first and did not like writing 'British' when asked to put his nationality on application forms.

Other Brown allies accused McConnell of allowing himself to be duped by his coalition partners who had been happy to exploit Labour splits. The transport minister in McConnell's executive is Tavish Scott - a Lib Dem MSP.

Many Labour sources admit the Lib Dems 'played a blinder', with a well-organised campaign that ruthlessly targeted local issues. Under the guidance of Dr Paul Rainger, the party's London-based campaign specialist, they did specialist surveys to make local voters feel consulted - everything from surveys of plumbers to surveys of hairdressers

. Any issue that might make a difference - bridge tolls, the local hospital, the need for a new high school, the Iraq war - all were targeted with individual campaigns aimed at specific parts of the constituency.

Up to 400 Lib Dem activists were on the streets last weekend, many from England, as the party tried to rally round after the scandals of recent weeks. On polling day the Lib Dems also ran an advert in the local newspaper saying people should not believe Labour spin on the Forth Bridge.

So what of the implications for next year's Holyrood elections? Professor John Curtice of the department of government at Strathclyde University does not believe this Westminster result means the Lib Dems pose a serious threat to Labour as the main party at Holyrood.

'Come a Holyrood election, where the Lib Dems are in coalition with Labour, it will be a lot more difficult to gain protest votes,' he says.

The party that should be worried, he says, is the SNP, which faces a serious threat to its position as Scotland's second party. 'In constituencies where the Lib Dems have got into second place, they may be able to persuade people to vote for them rather than the SNP. This is the worst SNP performance in a by-election in Scotland since 1982 in Coatbridge and Airdrie.'

Curtice says the lesson for David Cameron's Tories is that a new leader with charisma is not enough. 'It proves at by-elections at least, organisation is worth a lot more than charisma,' he says.

GORDON BROWN can take a little heart. Some Fifers remain true believers in him and his powers. Taking a walk in Pittencrieff park, beneath the statue of the town's most famous son, Andrew Carnegie, is Janice Joyce, a 56-year-old civil servant.

She voted Labour last week and always will. 'It's sad that this part of Fife has ended up like this, with a Lib Dem MP. We've had a lot to put up with - the shipyard, the pits, and just recently the Lexmark closure, and the rest. But Labour will always be the party that can best protect this area.

'Gordon Brown keeps up with what's going on here and still cares. I know people will say this is down to him, but that wouldn't be fair.' She pauses, and her brow furrows a little. 'He is getting a bit of a posh accent, though.'