 | 'This won't be replicated across the country because people don't vote in by-elections as they do in national elections. The Liberal Democrats can't fight 646 elections within the same intensity with which they fought Dunfermline.' Professor John Curtice, 11 th February 2006. |  |
JACK McConnell and Nicol Stephen make odd political adversaries. The Labour and Lib Dem rival leaders may have been thrown together at the head of Scottish politics by the vagaries of coalition government, but they genuinely seem to get on.
The love-in began when Stephen was junior minister to McConnell's education minister under Henry McLeish; McConnell came to admire his deputy's intellect and some Labour MSPs grumbled that he was closer to the Lib Dem than his own colleagues.
The Dunfermline and Fife West by-election showed the two politicians in a very different light, however, and it could mark the end of a beautiful friendship. While the First Minister spent most of the past four weeks running his government, his deputy was a constant fixture on the streets of Fife, slogging away to secure every possible Lib Dem vote in the by-election.
His top team did the same - even environment and rural affairs minister Ross Finnie, who two years ago had heart surgery, went flat out for votes. Grabbing a quick sandwich in the Scottish Parliament last Thursday, Finnie quipped that he hardly knew whether his snack was lunch or dinner.
This was the week when the Liberal Democrats broke all the rules, in more ways that one. It was their first Scottish by-election win from Labour since 1945, and they did so with a 16% swing that rivalled the SNP's famous Govan win in 1988.
But furious Labour and SNP critics claim that the Lib Dems betrayed their 'nice party' image by playing fast and loose with political rules too. In particular, that they campaigned hard on devolved issues in a Westminster by-election, and voicing criticism in areas such as health and transport while sharing power with Labour in a Cabinet which makes policy on those very issues.
Labour discovered to their cost that the new Liberal Democrat leadership is increasingly ruthless and focused and willing to take on Labour in its heartlands, and able top deploy a formidable electioneering machine to do so. It is all a far cry from the first Scottish Parliament coalition which saw former leader Jim Wallace share power with first Donald Dewar, then Henry McLeish and McConnell. At the time Liberal MSPs grumbled that many of their cherished policies remained on the back burner in order to keep the coalition together.
Wallace infuriated some of his colleagues by telling them that the Lib-Lab deal was a "long-term relationship", and some even suggested a cosy division of the two parties' rural and urban strongholds.
Wallace, the MSP for Orkney, had never had to deal with Labour as an electoral threat and much of his career had seen him involved in co-operation with Labour in the campaign for devolution through the 1990s. Stephen, on the other hand, got into Holyrood through winning a bitter electoral battle against Labour in Aberdeen South.
Now Stephen believes that a Liberal Democrat First Minister is a real possibility.
Speaking to Scotland on Sunday, he said: "We want to set no limits on our ambition. People felt neglected by Labour and that it was only because of this by-election campaign that they were paying any attention to local issues. The exciting thing for us is that given the choice, they seem willing to vote for us and not the SNP and that is what gives us real confidence.
"Our ambition is that our leader should be First Minister of Scotland."
But John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, raised a note of caution. As the Liberals have discovered all too often, one by-election does not necessarily represent the breaking of the mould.
Curtice said: "This won't be replicated across the country because people don't vote in by-elections as they do in national elections. The Liberal Democrats can't fight 646 elections within the same intensity with which they fought Dunfermline. Having said that, this is the first Labour government under which the Liberal Democrats have managed to go up in seats."
Away from the by-elections, other figures are equally heartening for the Liberals and chilling for both Labour and the SNP. Although the Lib Dems only won a single central Scottish seat from Labour in last year's general election, their underlying position is stronger than it looks. They came second in four of the six contested seats in Glasgow, replacing the SNP as the main challenger. And they are in second place to Labour in another seven Central Belt seats.
Slowly Labour is waking up to the new challenge and regarding the Liberal Democrats as the main contender as the SNP struggles to attract votes.
One UK Labour minister said: "Jack has been playing by the Marquis of Queensberry rules. But if Westminster MPs can't attack the Lib Dems then who the hell can? We must get away from being so precious about the coalition."
An aide to McConnell has signalled that the First Minister is becoming more bullish about attacking the junior partners in the coalition, even hinting an end to the power-sharing deal.
Labour have a year and a half to get back into the mode of fighting against that most unlikely of juggernauts, a Lib Dem surge. The question is whether they are so used to fighting the SNP and the Tories that they even have a conception of what fighting the Liberals feels like.
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