 | 'Tony BlairÕs acknowledged successor has been given a severe battering in his own backyard by people who have been voting Labour for generations. These are supposed to be BrownÕs people. He lives in the constituency and now faces the humiliation of being represented in Westminster by a Liberal Democrat MP.' Iain Macwhirter in the Sunday Herald, 12 th February 2006. |  |
They were polishing him up nicely when Ð wham! Ð the prime minister in waiting got monstered on his own doorstep by the Lib Dems.
As Gordon Brown left the Treasury on Friday he cursed the Liberal Democrats with a passion. 'Bloody hypocrites,' he swore at an aide.
The Lib Dems had just won the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election, partly by stabbing Labour in the back. With exquisite duplicity they had blamed Labour for controversial new road tolls, which the Lib Dems knew had no chance of being introduced.
So Brown was seething as he caught a plane to Moscow for a G8 meeting and began correcting a keynote speech on terrorism, due tomorrow, which he hopes will restore his image as the prime-minister-in-waiting. He could have been forgiven for thinking that, even if the knives were not at his own back, his hopes of succeeding Tony Blair had received a punch in the eye.
For this morning he will be answering questions on television on whether he is fit to succeed Blair if Labour cannot win a by-election in his own back yard. On another channel Charles Clarke, the home secretary, will be warning that a smooth transition to Brown is not guaranteed and a proper leadership contest is likely - while acknowledging that the chancellor is now effectively jointly running the country with Blair.
But there is only one thing worse for an aspiring prime minister than to be seen as a dour old curmudgeon with an obsessive interest in the minutiae of tax, and that's to be seen as a dour old curmudgeon who loses open-goal by-elections.
The Lib Dem win in the Scottish constituency the chancellor calls home (his own constituency is next door) was startling. Despite sex scandals and the lack of a leader, the Lib Dems overturned a Labour majority of 11,500.
Brown's allies say that 'by-elections are by-elections', that they imply nothing of national significance. But his enemies were gleeful. 'People are bound to wonder how, if Gordon is not in touch with people in his own back yard, he will get the message over to middle England,' said one.
IT SHOULD have been so different. According to Labour's 'grid', grumpy Gordon, once described by Downing Street as 'psychologically flawed', should have been well on his way to becoming a smiley man of the people by now.
With the help of Brown's wife Sarah, a former public relations executive, and other advisers, a complete overhaul of the chancellor's image has been under way for weeks. 'Project Gordon' has been running since early January with the aim of presenting Brown as a well-rounded man of the world, a father of a young child, who cares about Britishness, the poor of Africa and God.
Alastair Campbell and Philip Gould, Blair's personal pollster, have been attending fortnightly strategy meetings in Downing Street, with aides talking about a new rapprochement between Blair and Brown over a smooth transition of power. The chancellor has been invited by Blair to attend, along with some of the chancellor's inner circle, including Ed Balls, Ed Miliband and Spencer Livermore. The aim is serious: to work out how Labour should meet the challenge of David Cameron, the young Tory leader.
Those who attend the meetings implicitly accept that a key purpose is to make Brown the 'candidate of continuity and change' against the 'flip-flops' of Cameron.
Brown felt relaxed enough to joke last week about his new 'image consultants'. On a trip to Birmingham he asked aides playfully: 'Does my tie look right? Where's Alastair and Philip? I need to know if it goes with this shirt.'
Gould's private polling and focus groups show Brown is much more trusted than Blair, especially since the Iraq war. What he needs is a cosier, more rounded image.
To alter his image from that of dour number-cruncher, Brown is planning a series of important speeches beyond his economic remit. He has already made some progress and amassed a celebrity fan base thanks to his efforts on ending poverty in Africa.
Hollywood stars such as George Clooney, Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt are said to be scrabbling to get meetings with him. Kevin Spacey is a fan. 'It's not just Bill Gates and Bono. Plenty of famous people from around the globe are flocking to meet him,' said one Brownite MP.
That may overstate it, but being pictured with the glitterati does Brown no harm. JK Rowling is a friend of the Browns and has stayed with them in Scotland. The comedian Arabella Weir and the film maker Alan Parker are part of the wider Brown circle.
The Brown camp also claims an international cast of statesmen as followers, including Bill Clinton, Robert Rubin, the former US Treasury secretary, Al Gore, Nelson Mandela, Henry Kissinger, and Israeli politicians such as Benjamin Netanyahu. The chancellor has persuaded the world's most famous economic sage, the former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, to become an adviser.
Then there are the tycoons, including Gates, Sir Alan Sugar and Michael Bloomberg. Brown also scores high among the football aristocracy, claiming close links to Sir Alex Ferguson and Sir Trevor Brooking.
Being part of the Brown circle can be hard work. If the chancellor likes a book he buys dozens of copies on Amazon to give to friends and visitors to No 11. A few days later they can expect a call asking what they thought of it.
His small flat in Westminster is full of boxes of books and pamphlets. 'It's like something out of Only Fools and Horses,' said a Treasury official.
In recent days Brown has also done big tabloid interviews to reinforce the impression that he is ready to take over. His makeover includes wearing casual Ralph Lauren shirts when away from the Treasury. This is a far cry from the days when visitors to his home encountered him in suit and tie even at weekends.
It was all going so well - until the bolt from the blue in Dunfermline.
BROWN had taken personal charge of the by-election campaign, approving everything from the candidate to the message. But his campaign slogan, 'Creating jobs in Dunfermline and West Fife', was quickly ruined when Lexmark, the computer printer firm, announced the closure of its local plant with the loss of 700 jobs.
This weekend Brown must be worrying whether the result was simply a local problem or one that points to a deeper, national pattern. Sir Menzies Campbell, the acting Lib Dem leader, put it bluntly: 'If Gordon Brown is going to be the next prime minister and he can't hold a traditional Labour seat on his own back doorstep, then just how is he going to go down in Essex or Surrey?'
Some comfort for the chancellor comes from Peter Kellner, chairman of the pollsters YouGov. He points out that in five previous Scottish by-elections since 1997 Labour's share of the vote fell by an average of 15 points, in line with Thursday's 16-point drop.
Professor Michael Thrasher of the Elections Centre at Plymouth University also offers some reassurance: 'There was a lesson there for Blair and Brown, but there was also a lesson for Cameron. The fact is that he (Cameron) went up there and the Tories went backwards.'
Today's YouGov poll for The Sunday Times tends to back up Labour's private polling. Labour is narrowly ahead of the Tories, by 39% to 37%, with the Lib Dems on 15%, despite Thursday's victory.
Brown is still seen as an electoral bonus for Labour in the online poll of more than 1,600 people. Asked to choose between a Brown-led Labour party and the Tories under Cameron, 43% opted for Brown, 37% for Cameron.
Brown's great strength is his record, with voters saying by 46% to 21% that he has run the economy well. He is also seen as honest (39%), rather than untrustworthy (21%).
The poll suggests it is Blair who should be worried, with 41% saying he should step down this year. That constitutes a majority of the 79% who expressed a view. So how far should Brown go in remoulding his image? Experts have some advice.
Tamar Kasriel, of Henley Centre Headlight Vision, said: 'They should present him as the Ronseal politician: one who does what it says on the tin. He's a stick of seaside rock with the same message all the way through.'
Kate Saunders, of the advertising agency Saatchi & Saatchi, added: 'Gordon is an eminently sexy man. We would take him in the George Clooney-type territory.'
Colin Byrne, Labour's former chief press officer who now heads the PR firm Weber Shandwick in Britain, said he should 'smile a bit more, frown a bit less and make sure the tie's done up properly'.
Keep wearing the tie, in other words, and keep smiling. Even when voters give you a bit of a kicking.
Additional reporting: Laura St Quinton
PROJECT GORDON
THE MISSION
To rebrand Gordon Brown as a warm, competent and well rounded individual who is fit to be prime minister
LEVEL OF DIFFICULTY
Tricky, but not impossible
THE CORE TEAM
Ed Balls, former Treasury aide best known for his unbending loyalty to Brown; Ed Miliband, brother of the education minister and best known for his unbending loyalty to Brown; Douglas Alexander, minister for Europe best known for his unbending loyalty to Brown; Alistair Darling, transport secretary and best known for his eyebrows - and his unbending loyalty to Brown
SPECIAL HELPERS
Alastair Campbell, Tony Blair's former spinmaster general, and Philip Gould, Blair's chief pollster. Any friction with Brown? None, although don't mention someone (nameless of course) in No 10 who called him 'psychologically flawed'
CELEB SUPPORT
Bono, George Clooney, Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt (allegedly). The Krankies (probably)
OUT OF THE LOOP
John Reid, defence secretary, who alone thinks he has got a chance of challenging Brown for the leadership; Alan Milburn, former health secretary and one-time 'heir to Blair'
STRATEGY
To promote Brown as the candidate for 'continuity and change'. David Cameron, new Tory leader, will be written off as an inexperienced 'flip-flopper'
PROGRESS SO FAR
Brown is making speeches outside his usual brief, including one praising 'Britishness' and the Union Jack. Pictures of him smiling are in circulation as are the facts that wife Sarah is pregnant again and his son John has had the MMR jab. Oh, and Brown wears Ralph Lauren polo shirts at the weekend
WHAT NEXT?
A big speech on terrorism tomorrow, more smiling and a tour of the country
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