 | 'Into this mix came Rennie, who put himself forward as a 'champion' for change, despite the fact that his party - which is the junior partner in the Scottish Executive - was jointly responsible for the issues that depressed the voters.' Scottish Political Editor Paul Hutcheon in the Sunday Herald, 12 th February 2006. |  |
DUNFERMLINE'S high street, with its mass of charity shops, junk outlets, boarded up stores and graffiti, is unlikely to become the engine room for a smart, successful Scotland.
This monument to local neglect was chipped away at on Friday when Labour, which has controlled the town for decades, watched the Liberal Democrats overturn a majority of more than 11,000 to record one of the biggest upsets in Scottish political history.
Not that Willie Rennie's by-election victory lifted the local gloom. 'Ach, he's just another guy who will let us down. Nothing will change,' remarks one local shopkeeper.
Teenage girls, some of whom look as young as 15, push prams and shout abuse at friends in the town's high street. Baseball-capped youths, who look like they are on the prowl for hostages, snarl at passers-by. Dunfermline is not the kind of town you would expect to kick-start a revolution.v
A random stop-and-search produces little by way of explanation. Four residents say they did not vote; two claim they have 'no interest' in the LibDem victory or what it means for the town; while one other chap offers a three-word gesture that is more of a threat than an answer. If a political earthquake did occur in the early hours of the morning, folk in the centre of the town weren't listening.
But in nearby Pittencrieff park, where upwardly mobile families are to be found walking with their children, there's a more positive vibe. Parts of the newly created Dunfermline and West Fife constituency, says one computer programmer, contain commuter havens that attract young professionals and other 30-somethings who cannot afford to buy a home in the capital. It it these people, he says, who are natural Liberal Democrats. 'Don't think that everyone is a Labour loyalist in this area. Younger people don't have the tribal loyalties of their parents. That's the lesson of last night,' he says.
In the world of politicians and commentators, Friday morning's result is an epoch-making moment . Scottish LibDem leader Nicol Stephen is first out the blocks, describing the victory as 'sensational and historic'. Willie Rennie then claims his scalp is 'symbolic', while SNP leader Alex Salmond says the election is a 'Dunfermline disaster' for Gordon Brown.
But beyond apathy and rhetoric lies the reason behind this groundbreaking Liberal victory over Labour . From the town centre's disrepair, to the frustration felt over the health service, voters believed a successive generation of Labour politicians had not made their lives better.
John, a middle-aged public sector worker, says he had voted LibDem because nothing seemed to change in Dunfermline.'It has taken me a long time to stop voting Labour, but I voted for another party this time. The LibDems, believe it or not, are more socialist than Labour. All these empty shops have happened when Labour has been in power,' he says.
A 72-year-old chap with a walking stick, who reveals his age but not his name, also says that he used the by-election to kick his long-term habit of voting Labour. 'I voted SNP for the first time in my life, not because I believe in independence, but I just think Blair needs to know people like me aren't happy.'
Mary, a pensioner from Northern Ireland living in Dunfermline, is a LibDem voter who was surprised by the result. 'It was unbelievable. Maybe now things will change around here, but I doubt it.'
These two factors Ð hostility to the UK government and a weariness with local politicians Ð encouraged Labour voters to either stay home or switch to another party. Into this mix came Rennie, who put himself forward as a 'champion' for change, despite the fact that his party Ð which is the junior partner in the Scottish Executive Ð was jointly responsible for the issues that depressed the voters.
Even so, Labour's poor handling of the by-election campaign had pointed to a reduced majority, not a humiliating defeat. So too did the LibDems' comical start to the campaign. With Charles Kennedy admitting to a booze problem and one-time leadership wannabe Mark Oaten resigning over alleged trysts with male prostitutes, the LibDems' initial desire to come second seemed optimistic. When Simon Hughes's private life also became tabloid news, fourth place behind the Tories didn't seem far-fetched.
But voters ignored the LibDem troubles and allowed themselves to be wooed by one of the best organised campaigns in years. According to insiders, nearly 500,000 pieces of literature were distributed by party HQ, with around 200 activists working on the ground. On the morning of the vote, 20,000 LibDem leaflets had been delivered before 8am.
Labour's loss has already triggered a round of recrimination. Brown ally Alistair Darling aimed his fire at First Minister Jack McConnell, who early in the campaign clashed with Brown over a new Forth road bridge. But a source close to the First Minister noted that the campaign had been run by Westminster politicians. 'Alistair has made it clear he was running the campaign and he takes the responsibility. It is good for Alistair to be clear about that,' he says.
Other Labour figures are now beginning to take sides in the dispute. Ian Davidson, the Glasgow South West MP, says the performance of Jack McConnell and his ministers was a key factor in explaining the defeat.
'The by-election was more about Scottish Executive issues than Westminster ones. Labour at Holyrood was a negative issue for us and they are not immune from criticism,' he says, before taking a more direct hit at McConnell. 'Retreating into neo-nationalism is not the answer.'
Brian Donohoe, the party's MP for Ayrshire Central, seems to lay the blame at the door of the Chancellor, not McConnell. 'Our campaign wasn't helped by the conflict between Westminster and Holyrood,' he says. 'What's important is that both strands of government speak as one. You just can't have policy being made as the by-election unfolds.' He adds that the loss of the once safe seat would harm Brown's future ambitions. 'It's not going to do the Chancellor any favours. He ran the campaign from the outset and put in a tremendous amount of effort,' he says.
But newly elected Livingston MP Jim Devine says the Prime Minister, rather than the Chancellor and McConnell, was the problem on the doorsteps. 'The war was raised by people, without any doubt. I know a Labour supporter in the area who said he wasn't voting Labour again because of Iraq. He said he would vote SNP instead,' he says.
This view is backed by Linlithgow and East Falkirk MP Michael Connarty, who says Tony Blair's 'illiberal' views cost Labour the by-election. 'There was a general feeling that people wanted to tell Labour they were getting it wrong. The Iraq war, sending troops to Afghanistan and civil liberty issues were all coming through,' he says.
But these MPs agree on one thing: the necessity of fighting harder against the LibDems. With the party in coalition in Holyrood, Labour politicians have felt reluctant to attack McConnell's partners in the Executive, for fear of making his life difficult. Such reticence is at an end.
'We need a debate and a discussion about our relations with the LibDems,' says Devine. 'We have not taken them on because of the power-sharing. With power comes responsibility, but in the three by-elections now, the LibDems have betrayed that responsibility.'
Labour frowns are matched by LibDem smiles. The party snatched seats from McConnell's colleagues at the last general election and is now eating into Labour heartlands. Nicol Stephen says the victory will be repeated at next year's Holyrood poll.'We have a real opportunity now to grow our support very significantly in the Scottish parliament elections next May. We've got a real chance to lead Scotland,' he says, twisting the knife.
The Aberdeen South MSP says recent successes mean the LibDems could become the 'single largest party in the Scottish parliament', with McConnell deposed as First Minister. 'All of the major parties go into the campaign wanting to do well enough to ensure their leader becomes First Minister. That's our objective,' he says, before adding that he would be 'very pleased' for McConnell to be his deputy.
A source close to the First Minister hit back at the Deputy First Minister.
'That is fantasy politics. Nicol must have a short memory, because they didn't do well in the Livingston and Cathcart by-elections,' he says.
Beyond the Labour name-calling, the result proved to be another disappointment for SNP leader Alex Salmond, who said during the campaign that his party was running Labour close for first place. In reality, the Nationalists came third Ð 5000 votes behind the LibDems and never in danger of pipping McConnell's party for second.
Salmond claims the contest shows dramatic swings 'across the various areas of the seat' É but it is a measly morsel of comfort.
The by-election result has lifted the lid on grievances that had previously been kept off the boil. Brown doesn't rate McConnell, who now cannot possibly trust the Chancellor. MPs loathe MSPs, especially if they are LibDems. And the Deputy First Minister is using the victory to bait the First Minister, who can barely conceal his irritation at his younger colleague.
Meanwhile, areas such as Dunfermline and West Fife continue to stagnate.
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