 | 'For a man seemingly destined to occupy Number 10, it was surprising how quickly the wolves, hunting for a scapegoat, began snapping at Mr Brown and his henchman Scottish Secretary Alistair Darling, who both featured prominently in the run up to the poll.' Evening News, 11 th February 2006. |  |
AS Gordon Brown relaxes on the flight back from Moscow this weekend, he will have much to ponder. Doubtless the Chancellor will dwell on the outcome of the G8 talks and perhaps the UK economy, but he could be forgiven if his thoughts are not closer to home as he evaluates the possible repercussions for himself and Labour of its disastrous showing in his home town of Dunfermline.
The loss of the seat, which fell vacant following the tragic death of Rachel Squire, is not just a disaster for the party but could pose a major threat to his chances of becoming Labour leader and prime minister.
For a man seemingly destined to occupy Number 10, it was surprising how quickly the wolves, hunting for a scapegoat, began snapping at Mr Brown and his henchman Scottish Secretary Alistair Darling, who both featured prominently in the run up to the poll.
The feeling among worried Labour MPs was that the Chancellor rather than the Prime Minister was to blame for the sudden collapse of Labour's vote towards the end of the campaign. But then, as a party they've always been good at losing by-elections and opportunistically avoiding responsibility.
But while Labour rakes through the ashes of defeat, the Lib Dems are naturally ecstatic and enjoying the moment to the full. But the true test for them will be whether they can hold on to the seat the next time the UK goes to the polls. For decades the Lib Dems and their Liberal predecessors have won spectacular by-elections and then lost the seat when the next general election came around. But the fact that they could win in Dunfermline and West Fife following the turmoil caused by Charles Kennedy's resignation over drink, Mark Oaten's rent boy scandal and Simon Hughes admission of lying over his homosexuality makes this success a very unusual and heartwarming one indeed for the party.
It's a disastrous result for the Scottish Nationalists, whatever Alex Salmond may say. Despite his claim that parties don't win by-elections from third place, the Lib Dems have been doing that for years and his return to the nationalist fray seems to have done little to boost the party from its torpor and suggests that his target of 20 more seats at the next Scottish Parliament remains a very distant dream.
But not so distant as the imminent arrival of the fabled Tory revival in Scotland. Despite a personal appearance by David Cameron, the Tory vote fell and they were lucky to hold their deposit, suggesting his boast of building a party that reaches all parts of Britain is hollow when it comes to Scotland.
But all that won't concern Mr Brown as much as his own future. He and Mr Darling put a great deal of effort into holding on to the seat hoping it would make a difference - but it didn't - and the albatross of failure hangs squarely around their necks, casting doubts over their ability to manage Scotland.
The events of Thursday night give a foretaste of what could be a more intriguing race next year for control of the Scottish Parliament. With only a few furlongs still to run, the Liberal Democrats are making the running and will be looking to repeat at least their 2003 prize of power sharing, while the Nationalists and the Conservatives clearly have some ground to make up to even get in the frame.
But perhaps Mr Brown himself has more riding on this than most. Labour may remain marginal favourite, and ahead by a nose at present, but if the party stumbles in the run up to the line it will reflect badly on him and could end his dream of becoming Labour leader and prime minister. Another hefty defeat in his own Scottish backyard could persuade many MPs on both sides of the Border that the Iron Chancellor has turned rusty and cast doubts as to whether he is the man to back as they battle to save their own seats while attempting to secure a fourth general election victory for Labour.
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