 | 'There is nothing very unusual about Labour losing ground in Westminster by-elections in Scotland where they are defending the seat. Labour's share of the vote has fallen back in every single such by-election since 1978.' Professor John Curtice in the Scotsman, 11 th February 2006. |  |
ALEX Salmond may like a bit of a flutter but he would be no good playing poker. The SNP leader cannot hide his enthusiasm when his party is on the verge of winning, but he is no good at disguising his despondency when his party is heading for defeat.
As the first ward results trickled in on Thursday night, Mr Salmond continued to talk up his party's chances, stressing how many gains the Nationalists were making, but his face gave the game away.
Like Tigger, he had lost his bounce.
He and his party colleagues knew they were heading for defeat as they watched the Liberal Democrat vote rising everywhere. So why did it go so wrong?
Mr Salmond had decided to run a local campaign, focusing on the state of Dunfermline town centre, a hot local issue, and the fate of hospital services in the region.
His campaign was essentially "independence-lite" because it stressed the local more than the constitutional and the party committed more resources to the campaign than almost any previous by-election since Govan in 1988. But, by last weekend, the momentum had started to slip away from them and towards the Liberal Democrats. Mr Salmond attributed his party's failure to about 4,000 Labour voters who switched to the Liberal Democrats, claiming that the Lib Dems were seen as the main opposition party to Labour and so became the main repository for anti-Labour protest votes. He said that, had the Nationalists been seen as second favourites, they would have got those votes and won.
Yet, despite the bravado, it was clear Mr Salmond and his senior colleagues know this was a chance missed.
It is the sort of chance the Nationalists will have to convert next year if the party is to stand any chance of forming a government at Holyrood: and time is running out.
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