 | 'What he has done is not going down well with the big figures in Westminster. IÕd ask: 'What do John Reid and Gordon Brown think of this?' What IÕm hearing is that theyÕre not best pleased.' Labour candidate Cllr Charles Gordon on First Minister Jack McConnell. |  |
WITH two by-elections next week, the SNP's annual conference starting
today in Aviemore could hardly be better timed. It guarantees plenty
of publicity for its policies but will it be a springboard for
success?
ALEX Salmond has had his ups and downs since returning as SNP leader
and promising to be Scotland's next First Minister.
Just four months ago, the Nationalists captured two Labour seats in
the General Election, but saw their share of the popular vote drop to
below 18% - two points down on the previous election.
So more seats but fewer votes and if that trend continued there would
be fewer seats at Holyrood where most of its MSPs are elected on a
second vote.
But, as millionaire footballers would have it, Mr Salmond's team got a
result earlier this year.
After the blood-letting which followed John Swinney's leadership,
neither he nor his deputy Nicola Sturgeon are in in danger from a
fractious membership.
The next few days in Aviemore are critical so don't expect fireworks
or anything too controversial to emerge.
With two by-elections to be won even the few rebels should be easily
controlled.
The credibility of the party and its leadership will be seriously
damaged if there is a slump in the percentage vote in the Holyrood
by-election for Cathcart and the Westminster by-election for Livingston.
Plans for the Victoria Infirmary in Cathcart and St John's, in
Livingston, are potential vote-winners in both constituencies and
health will be a big issue in Ms Sturgeon's Saturday speech.
On Friday, Mr Salmond, an economist to trade, will ridicule Chancellor
Gordon Brown's best efforts and the SNP's best-ever slogan 'It's
Scotland's Oil' will feature.
Why not after the revelations that government papers of 30 years ago
predicted oil revenues could have made Scotland one of the most
powerful independent countries in Europe?
He will also play up Labour's commitment to the Iraq war and there are
plenty of voters in both Cathcart and Livingston who will agree with
his criticisms.
The effects on the economy will also be highlighted by the Cathcart
candidate Maura Whitehead if ScottishPower is taken over by German
energy giant E.On.
She's expected to take part in a topical debate on the subject tomorrow.
Mr Salmond has consistently said his party has to break through in
Glasgow and the west if it is ever to govern.
A debate on shipbuilding tomorrow, which will criticise the Scottish
Executive for failing to support Ferguson's of Port Glasgow in its bid
for two fisheries protection vessels, will help him in that aim.
But, now he's been back in charge for a year, next week's by-elections
will be a critical indicator of whether Mr Salmond will ever achieve
his aim of becoming First Minister - or even improving his party's
position in the 2007 Holyrood elections.
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