 | 'Mr Salmond claimed that the swing of 10.2 per cent from Labour to the SNP in the Livingston contest to find a successor to the late Robin Cook would be enough for the Nationalists to secure the 20 Holyrood seats he has set as the party's target.' Peter MacMahon and Hamish MacDonell in the Scotsman, 1 st October 2005. |  |
THE Scottish National Party has insisted that it is on course to win the 2007 Holyrood election - despite its poor showing in Thursday's parliamentary by-elections.
Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, was yesterday introduced as a future first minister by his deputy, Nicola Sturgeon, as the Nationalists tried to put a positive gloss on their failure to take either the Livingston Westminster seat or the Glasgow Cathcart seat in the Scottish Parliament.
Analysts and their political opponents reacted with scepticism to the claims.
Mr Salmond claimed that the swing of 10.2 per cent from Labour to the SNP in the Livingston contest to find a successor to the late Robin Cook would be enough for the Nationalists to secure the 20 Holyrood seats he has set as the party's target.
He told a press conference in Edinburgh: "We are on course to win the 2007 elections. The gains we need across Scotland are within our grasp. In 2007 we will win the seats required to take the SNP to victory."
However, his view was challenged by Alistair Darling, Labour's Scottish Secretary, who questioned Mr Salmond's continued leadership of his party, and by Prof John Curtice, one of Scotland's leading experts on elections.
In the elections, staged on the same day in an effort to blunt the SNP attack, Charlie Gordon, a former leader of Glasgow City Council, held Glasgow Cathcart, and Jim Devine, a friend and former agent of Mr Cook, retained Livingston for Labour. Both victories were comfortable, if not resounding.
"The Nationalists are on a downward slide under Salmond's leadership," Mr Darling told Labour's victory Press conference.
Asked if he was telling Mr Salmond to consider quitting as SNP leader, Mr Darling said: "It's not for me to decide who is the leader of the Scottish Nationalists.
"But it must occur to their members at some stage that all this bluster about winning 20 first-past-the-post seats - and at the last general election, when he tried to claim it was a victory when their vote went down again - it must occur to them one day that perhaps he's not going to deliver.
"Fundamentally, what is wrong with the Nationalists is not necessarily their leadership but their policies, their whole raison d'etre. And at some stage I suspect some of them will begin to think about that."
Mr Salmond not only had to endure attacks from his political opponents, but analysis by Prof Curtice, on this page, flatly contradicts his claims that the results show the SNP is on course for power at Holyrood.
Asked about Mr Darling's attack, Mr Salmond borrowed a phrase coined by Denis Healey, the veteran Labour politician: "Being attacked by Alistair Darling is like being savaged by a dead sheep."
Questioned on Prof Curtice's analysis, he said: "Our vote is moving forward and the other parties' votes are moving backwards. We're into an argument about whether we can gain these 20 seats. We're well aware that we have to provide the organisational platform to enable that victory to come about."
Labour held on to Livingston but saw its majority there fall from 13,097 to just 2,680. It held on to the Cathcart seat, left vacant by the resignation of Labour peer Lord Watson, who is now serving 16 months for fire-raising at an Edinburgh hotel, but saw its majority fall from 5,112 in May 2003 to just 2,405.
Mr Darling added: "The big story of last night is the result of the Nationalists, who fancy themselves as by-election specialists."
He added that the SNP share of the vote fell in 2001, 2003 and 2004, and the party came in third place behind the Liberal Democrats in the May election. "His record is clearly worse than that of [former SNP leader] John Swinney - and his record cost him his job," said Mr Darling.
Nicol Stephen, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, said his party's vote held up well in both seats. The Liberal Democrats were in third place, with 15.4 per cent in Livingston, and improved from sixth to fourth in Cathcart.
Mr Stephen said: "These are solid results for the Liberal Democrats, holding on to our share of the vote in Livingston and improving on our previous result in Cathcart."
David McLetchie, the Scottish Tory leader, said: "We made steady progress in Cathcart, with an increased share of the vote and a secure third place ahead of the Lib Dems. Progress like this across the city will leave us well placed to add another MSP to our ranks from Glasgow."
In both constituencies, Labour saw off a determined SNP challenge, but on poor turnouts. In the case of Cathcart it was the lowest turnout - just under 32 per cent - for a Scottish Parliament election since the onset of devolution in 1999.
The SNP increased its percentage share of the vote in the low turnout, but in absolute terms its vote stayed roughly the same. In Cathcart the party won 3,406 votes, compared to 3,630 in the May 2003 Scottish Parliament election, and in Livingston it notched up 9,639 votes compared to 9,560 at the May General Election.
Mr Gordon yesterday showed glimpses of the blunt and forthright style which has become his trademark on Glasgow City Council. "I tend to call things as I see them. The leopard isn't promising to change its spots," he said.
Asked if he wanted to become First Minister, or even a Cabinet minister, Mr Gordon said he would shortly become "the most junior member" of Jack McConnell's team.
"I'm a rookie MSP. I haven't even been to the Scottish Parliament yet in that capacity," he said. And he added: "The people of Cathcart have been through a difficult time in terms of representation, and my sole focus at the moment is to be a good and effective representative on their behalf."
LIVINGSTON RESULT
Jim Devine (Lab)12,319
Angela Constance (SNP)9,639
Charles Dundas (LD)4,362
Gordon Lindhurst (C)1,993
David Robertson (Green)529
Steve Nimmo (SSP) 407
Peter Adams (UKIP)108
Melville Brown (Ind) 55
John Allman (Alliance for Change) 33
Brian Gardner (Socialist Party of GB) 32
Maj 2,680
Turn-out38.6%
CATHCART RESULT
Charlie Gordon (Lab) 5,811
Maire Whitehead (SNP) 3,406
Richard Cook (C) 2,306
Arthur Sanderson (LD) 1,557
Pat Lally (Ind) 856
Ronnie Stevenson (SSP) 819
Chloe Stewart (Green) 548
Christopher Creighton (Ind) 59
Bryan McCormack (UKIP)54
Maj 2,405
Turn-out 31.97%
Return to home page