Ayr by-election Result 16 th March 2000

'Scott became the first Tory parliamentarian elected by first past the post since the general election in 1992, but in numerical terms the Tory vote was down on the May 1999 Scottish parliament contest in which the party came second to Labour by 25 votes. Claims that the result points to likely wins in constituencies such as Eastwood and Pentlands at the next election still sound more like Tory wishful thinking.'
Scotland on Sunday, Editorial, 19 th March 2000.

One small step for Tory kind in a hostile land

Scotland on Sundayw

THE Scottish Tories are used to sipping champagne to induce that soporific feeling needed in the wake of crushing defeat. The charms of fizz as a celebration tipple have been lost on the party for the best part of a decade. But in the early hours of Friday morning in the bar of Ayr’s Abbotsford Hotel, effectively Conservative campaign headquarters during the by-election, they rediscovered its delights.

Lord Strathclyde, the Tory leader in the Lords, arrived with a consignment of champagne from the cellar of his nearby Ayrshire residence. Tory women giggled and the party’s campaign director, known usually for his dry wit and philosophical approach to the Scottish Tories’ latest humiliation, could not stop grinning for once. The size of the majority – 3,344 – surprised those present and added to their sense of jubilation.

But how significant was John Scott’s victory for a party which only increased its share of the vote by a little over 1%?

Scott became the first Tory parliamentarian elected by first past the post since the general election in 1992, but in numerical terms the Tory vote was down on the May 1999 Scottish parliament contest in which the party came second to Labour by 25 votes. Claims that the result points to likely wins in constituencies such as Eastwood and Pentlands at the next election still sound more like Tory wishful thinking.

But as Scott walked though the town last Friday morning there were plenty of well-wishers on hand who said they were pleased that Ayr was once more a Tory seat. Despite early criticism, Scott’s down-to-earth, middle-of the road demeanour is seen by party strategists as more evidence that the Tories can appeal to what have been termed the voters of Middle Scotland – votes the Conservatives used to rely on.

The father of two was born in Ayrshire and his roots remain firmly grounded in the constituency he has now been elected to represent.

What Scott is not, admit his by-election handlers, is a bright hope for the upper echelons of the party. They prefer to see his victory as evidence of Middle Scotland viewing Tories as being capable of representing their interests in parliament once more. "We’re slowly getting people’s trust back," said one MSP between gulps of his celebration drink.

Indeed, aides to Scottish Tory leader David McLetchie claim that the most significant effect of Thursday’s result is that it implies that the ‘Stop the Tories at all costs’ factor is disappearing from the minds of many voters. The party’s projected share of the vote across Scotland is still stuck only a little higher than it has been for years – but they believe that voters no longer see tactical voting against the Tories as the primary reason for voting.

"For a long time it has been all about stopping us and people will vote for whoever can beat the Tory. In Ayr that broke down, it’s Labour that people want to give a bloody nose," said one aide.

But the Tory vote has not risen. Tory loyalists who stayed at home, or defected for the first time in 1997, may feel confident once more about voting for a party that earned itself a reputation as sleazy, corrupt and incompetent, but there is little evidence of direct switching to the Tories from other party’s core voters. In other words, there is no sign of large numbers of new voters for McLetchie’s party.

They are also having serious difficulties attracting younger, brighter candidates and just as importantly there is no evidence from the party’s general election selection process that ageing constituency activists are prepared to opt for new talent when they select candidates.

And Ayr was one of the few seats in Scotland with a coherent party campaign machine. Other seats, even some of them regarded as once naturally Tory have little in the way of an activist network.

But out of the mixed messages to emerge from Ayr, perhaps the strongest pointer to the future is that McLetchie is picking up in confidence. Those around him say that his visits to Ayr, and his election night television appearances, indicate he is operating with new found confidence. It is the Scottish Tory leader who may emerge as the real winner from Ayr.

An earth-shattering Tory revival? No, more like another small step in their long rehabilitation programme.

March 19 th 2000

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