Ayr by-election Result 16 th March 2000

'To add to Labour's humiliation, the SNP's polling showed that it had sharply increased its share of the vote. The SNP required a swing of more than nine percentage points to defeat the Tories. Ayr should have been a hopeless cause but, thanks to skilful co-ordination by John Swinney, the SNP deputy leader, its rating soared.'
Alison Hardie in the Scotsman, 17 th March 2000.

Tories claim historic win after heavy vote in Ayr

By Alison Hardie, Political Correspondant in the Scotsman

THE Conservative Party last night claimed a historic victory in the Ayr by-election - its first in Scotland since 1967.

Success in Ayr will be seized on by William Hague, the Conservative leader, as the first sign of a UK-wide revival for his party.

The Tories were wiped out at the general election in 1997, being left without a single MP in Scotland. Their share of the vote in Ayr, a Tory stronghold, dropped to 32 per cent, but rose slightly at the Scottish election last May to 38 per cent.

Despite a healthy turnout of about 55 per cent yesterday, Labour suffered a backlash with traditional supporters deserting the party.

Party chiefs were forced to concede it was their policies and not Section 28 that cost them their most marginal seat in the Scottish parliament.

Raymond Robertson, the Scottish Tory chairman, said that the party's candidate, John Scott, was set for victory with a margin running into the thousands. The last time the Tories won a by-election was at Glasgow Pollok 23 years ago.

For Labour, losing Ayr will be a severe embarrassment though its control of the Scottish parliament in coalition with the Liberal Democrats will be unaffected.

In September, the SNP came within 600 votes of winning Hamilton, a normally rock-solid Labour seat at Westminster made vacant by Lord Robertson's departure to Nato.

Labour won the Ayr constituency seat at the Scottish parliament election last May by 25 votes. Ian Welsh's success was a bodyblow to the Tories, who had held the seat at Westminster for 100 years. But when the Labour MSP resigned suddenly last year he handed his party an almost impossible task.

Despite ploughing huge resources into their campaign, Labour found itself handicapped by the shaky performance of the Scottish executive.

Party sources said that Labour's Westminster policies had also been a crucial factor in turning the vote.

Surprisingly, the debate over Section 28 was not the main by-election issue, with all parties claiming that it had ranked only fourth in their lists of voters' concerns.

A Labour insider said the party would not "hide behind the excuse of Section 28" in the wake of defeat, adding: "If we lost support because of our policies or our failure to deliver at Holyrood, then we will put up our hands and admit we have to do better."

The population of Ayr is traditionally an older one and many pensioners used their vote in protest at the government's 75p rise in their pension. The decision to grant the over-75s free television licences and last year's announcement of a Ł100 winter payment for OAPs failed to sway them.

The Keep the Clause campaign, bankrolled by the Stagecoach tycoon Brian Souter, bought up every billboard site in Ayr for the campaign. It also flooded local newspapers with adverts urging voters to support parties committed to retaining the law banning the promotion of homosexuality in schools.

Labour's private polling and an ICM poll for The Scotsman during the campaign indicated that the party would trail home third behind the Tories and the Scottish National Party.

Experts said that third place for Labour and a failure by the Lib Dems to come fourth at Ayr would be seen as damning public criticism of the Scottish executive's performance.

To add to Labour's humiliation, the SNP's polling showed that it had sharply increased its share of the vote. The SNP required a swing of more than nine percentage points to defeat the Tories. Ayr should have been a hopeless cause but, thanks to skilful co-ordination by John Swinney, the SNP deputy leader, its rating soared.

He admitted yesterday that the SNP had "thrown the kitchen sink" at the campaign and Alex Salmond, the party leader, was confident enough to predict victory in the face of a Labour meltdown.

Ayr tends to have a higher than average turnout because of the higher than normal percentage of elderly residents. This group was also thought to have directed its anger at Labour because of the closure of a local lunch club used by several hundred pensioners.

March 17 th 2000

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