Ayr by-election Result 16 th March 2000

'Labour's share of the vote slumped by 16 per cent from its showing at last year's Scottish election, and by 26 per cent on the general election result in 1997. The SNP recorded a 12.7 per cent swing from Labour.' Dean Nelson and Alison Hardie in the Scotsman, 18 th March 2000.

Scottish Labour now has to show voters where its real loyalty lies

Analysis by Professor John Curtice in the Scotsman

A bomb has exploded underneath the cabinet table of the Scottish executive - and the fallout could stretch as far as Westminster. For the message from Ayr is that 'new' Labour's long honeymoon with the voters appears to be at an end.

Labour did not just lose its most marginal Holyrood seat. It suffered a disaster. The party's share of the vote fell by 16 percentage points compared with its Holyrood vote in Ayr, and by no fewer than 26 points compared with its 1997 Westminster support.

Just a mid-term protest? Quite possibly so. But hitherto what has been remarkable about this Westminster parliament has been the relative absence of anti-government protest.

Labour has lost ground heavily in some safe seats - most notably Hamilton South (down 29 points) and Leeds Central (down 21) - results that have been one of many indications of disenchantment in Labour's so called 'heartland'.

But in marginal and traditional Tory territory, where 'new' Labour prided itself on its ability to reach parts of the electorate old Labour could never reach, the party has largely stemmed the outgoing tide normally experienced by incumbent governments.

But now Ayr has burst that bubble. Irrespective of whether the comparison is made with the last Holyrood poll, or with Westminster, the swing against Labour is nearly every bit as bad as it was in the heartland of Hamilton South. If 'middle Scotland' exists, it is no longer backing 'new' Labour.

Or perhaps that should read Scottish 'new' labour? Perhaps this is just simply the voters of Ayr registering Scotland's dissatisfaction with the widely criticised performance of the Scottish executive, not least over its handling of Section 28.

After all, Labour's Scottish coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats, followed up their sixth place in Hamilton with an equally embarrassing fifth place in Ayr. Maybe London simply needs to tell Edinburgh to get its house in order.

But there are other signals that suggest all is no longer well with labour across the UK, not just in Scotland. Over the past two months, all three regular British polls have registered all-time Labour lows and/or Conservative highs for this parliament. For example, the most recent Gallup poll found that for the first time as many voters now disapprove of Labour's record in office as approve.

Labour local government by-elections has fallen off too, while on the streets of Ayr it was UK government issues, such as pensions and the privatisation of air traffic control, that were on voters' lips, not just what was going on in Holyrood.

True, Labour's Westminster poll leads are still of a size that most post-war British governments would have loved to enjoy. There may well be many labour voters who are reluctant to back labour mid-term who, come a general election, would return to the fold, but the warning signs are now clear that some voters have doubt about how much the UK Labour government is achieving.

Three years into its life, Tony Blair's government has crossed a Rubicon. No longer can bad news be blamed on the last Conservative government. With its manifesto commitments largely implemented, it faces the challenge of demonstrating that the resulting benefits are beginning to flow.

Thanks to Ayr, the spotlight in May's London mayoral and English local elections will firmly be on just how well the party appears to be passing this test.

While this result may have a message for Labour across the UK, there is no doubt that there is one for the party in Scotland too. And it may run more deeply than simply the need to address the day-to-day travails of the Scottish Executive.

Donald Dewar's success in becoming First Minister last May hid an important message of the Holyrood election. This was that, while Labour may have created the Scottish parliament, voters are by no means clear that it is the best party to run the new institution. The polls regularly suggested that up to one in five of those who were willing to back Labour in a Westminster election were not willing to do so for Holyrood. And, as our own ICM poll in Ayr showed, this is still the case.

What are these voters concerned about? According to the evidence of the Scottish parliamentary Election Study, their biggest concern seems to be whether Labour will stand up enough for Scotland's interests.

If so, it suggests that the challenge to Labour in Scotland is not simply to generate better day-to-day headlines for the Scottish executive, but to convince voters that Scottish Labour ministers' first loyalty is to Edinburgh, not London.

The trouble is, recent events in both London and wales have served only to underline the perception that some at least in the UK Labour leadership are reluctant to let any bit of the party off the Millbank leash.

Labour in Ayr that as clearly made in Scotland. This is that it was the Scottish National party which was the favoured vehicle of protest. Last year's Holyrood election left the SNP with the opportunity to become the natural beneficiary of Labour unpopularity. In Ayr, it confirmed that it has the ability to seize that opportunity.

nine point rise in SNP support since last May was even higher than the seven point rise last summer in Hamilton South.

r the hopes of its framers, devolution has failed to put the nationalist genie in the bottle. Indeed with the SNP poised to abandon its policy of regarding a Holyrood or Westminster victory as a mandate for independence negotiations, Labour may find it even more difficult to stop its supporters regarding the SNP as an acceptable alternative.

John Curtice is the professor of politics at Strathclyde University.

March 18 th 2000

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