Ayr by-election 2000

'Yet another influential voice yesterday gave public backing to Opposition claims that the Treasury is not paying Scotland its rightful share of European Union aid. As senior SNP figures travelled to Brussels for talks with the European Commission, Mr Tony Mackay, a respected and independent Inverness-based economic consultant, accused the former Scottish Office of 'bending the rules' over so-called additionality, the requirement that aid from Europe must not be used as a substitute for domestic public spending.'
Benedict Brogan in the Herald, 10 th March 2000.

Labour faces third place humiliation in Ayr poll

By Nelson Dean in the Scotsman

LABOUR faces a humiliating defeat in the Scottish parliament’s first by-election in Ayr on Thursday amid a slump in traditional support.

The party will lose the seat to the Conservatives and be beaten into third place by the Scottish National Party, according to the most authoritative opinion poll carried out so far.

The ICM poll for The Scotsman confirms Labour’s worst fears that the rumblings of discontent in its heartlands could translate into a plunge in core support. It puts the Tories in the lead with 36 per cent, followed by the SNP on 27 per cent, one percentage point ahead of Labour.

Despite the likelihood of victory for the Tory candidate, the Ayr farmer John Scott, the poll will be disappointing for the UK party leader, William Hague, who was hoping that Ayr would mark the beginning of anational Tory revival.

According to the poll, the Conservatives have a nine point lead, but their share of the vote is two points lower than their showing in last year’s Scottish parliament election.

There is also bleak news for Labour’s coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats, who were overtaken by Tommy Sheridan’s Scottish Socialist Party. The Lib Dems’ poor showing – one point behind the SSP with only three per cent – will alarm party leaders who fear that the party is losing its identity since entering government as a coalition partner last May.

The slump in Labour support emerged as the Foreign Secretary, Robin Cook, in a speech to the Scottish Labour conference in Edinburgh yesterday, tried to quell growing back-bench unrest

"No Labour government in my lifetime has done more for our traditional voters than this one," he said, citing the introduction of the minimum wage, rights to trade union recognition, the working families tax credit and the creation of the Scottish parliament.

With the SNP and Labour neck and neck, the last three days of the campaign will see an increasingly bitter fight between the two parties for second place.

Labour will follow Tony Blair’s lead at the party conference last week and seek to make a virtue of its repeal of Section 28 – the law banning the promotion of homosexuality in schools. Party officials believe they can win support by contrasting Labour’s "principled" stand with Nationalist "opportunism".

Despite the polarisation of opinion on Section 28, there is no evidence in The Scotsman poll that the issue is affecting voting intentions. Seventy-five per cent oppose the government’s repeal, compared with 17 per cent in favour.

But the slump in Labour support is equally marked in both groups. Among pro-repeal Labour voters, 44 per cent said they would definitely turn out to vote Labour, only four points more than anti-repeal Labour supporters.

Labour will this week turn its attention to the over-65s, who have defected to the Tories in large numbers, by making new promises on pensions.

According to the ICM-Scotsman poll, Labour has lost young voters to the Nationalists and pensioners to the Conservatives. Among 18-34-year-olds, the SNP leads the field with 31 per cent, the Tories on 26 per cent and Labour in third on 23 per cent. Among the over-65s, the Tories lead with 51 per cent, with Labour second on 28 per cent and the SNP third on 14 per cent.

More alarmingly for the Labour leadership – after its co-ordinated campaign to reassure working class voters – the party’s lead in the C2, D and E "blue collar" social classes is only four points over theNationalists and five points over the Tories.

In the "professional" ABC1 social class, Labour is again languishing in third place, on 18 per cent, with the Tories on 46 per cent and the Nationalists on 25.

The only comfort for Labour is that the SNP’s surge does not translate into the Westminster context. According to the poll, had the by-election been for a Westminster seat, Labour would be only one point behind the Tories.

In this scenario, the Tory vote would rise two points to 38 per cent, with Labour on 37 per cent and the SNP slipping eight points to 19.

Similarly, the SNP surge in Ayr is not matched with a growth in support of independence. Support for independence in Ayr stands at 38 per cent (with 52 per cent against), compared with 47 per cent in favour in a Scotland-wide poll in January (with 43 per cent against).

The political analyst Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said the poll bore all the characteristics of "a mid-term protest vote.

March 13 th 2000

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