System 3 Opinion Polls

'On this month's national figures, it is not outside the realms of possibility that the SNP challenge could be as surprising as in Hamilton South last September.' Malcolm Dickson in theHerald, 6 th March 2000.

Concerns for the coalition

Malcolm Dickson finds Labour under the cosh as the first Scots parliamentary by-election nears

From the Herald

Now, according to our latest survey from System Three, it is bogged right in the political mire. The SNP has substantively caught Labour on both ballot questions for voting intentions to Holyrood.

This is Labour's worst performance since the beginning of October last year in the immediate aftermath of a poor, but winning, performance in the Westminster by-election in Hamilton South.

These latest figures come, of course, immediately before a crucial by-election test in Ayr next week - the first by-election to be held for a seat in the Scottish Parliament.

Labour has to fend off the challenge of the Conservatives in Ayr and, although its national position has slipped, the Conservatives have gained only slightly and are still below their showing last May.

The Tories did buck the trend in Ayr last year, although that may have been in some measure because Mr Phil Gallie was there. With Mr Gallie now not contesting the seat, the Conservatives must capitalise on their local strength rather than rely on any signs of a more general increase in the level of their support.

The moves in opinion in the last month should worry the coalition partners, as it would see their projected majority from last month slip from 21 to 11 seats this month.

The coalition holds an actual majority of 17 but, in two out of the last three months, our projections put their combined strength below that level. Now at a combined projected 70 seats, the coalition is at its weakest since the May 6 elections, even below that of the previous low point after that Hamilton by-election scare last September.

No doubt some will interpret the loss of support in terms of the problems Labour has suffered in the Scottish political context, but it has also lost support in relation to voting intentions for Westminster, down from 49% to 45%, so it may be that Labour is beginning to suffer slightly in Scotland as a reflection of the mild loss of support in British terms.

There are other interpretations that could be made of the shifts in opinion; these do involve the debates surrounding the repeal of Section 28 and the latest rows over the funding of the Scottish Parliament building.

An interesting feature that might shed light upon this is the fact that the age profile of SNP support has altered to include much higher levels of support among older groups in the population. Opposition to the repeal of Section 28 is also at its highest amongst these groups.

The same is also true for the jump in support for the SNP from lower social classes in the market research categories of C2 and DE, which again account for higher levels of opposition to the repeal of Section 28.

Labour's problems may therefore be temporary. What is clear, though, is that even on an issue like Section 28, the main beneficiary of any Labour problems is the SNP. That may help the Conservatives in Ayr, as it may mean enough of Labour's support defecting to keep the Tories in with a chance.

On this month's national figures, it is not outside the realms of possibility that the SNP challenge could be as surprising as in Hamilton South last September.

If the swing to the SNP was repeated in Ayr, it would see the gap between it and Labour cut in half, from 18% to 9%. Given the peculiar circumstances of a by-election campaign, it could be closer than that. In the last test of electoral popularity in Ayr, in last June's European elections, the SNP was only 6% behind Labour.

Whatever the result on March 16, the implications for the future of the current administration could extend well beyond the confines of the Ayr constituency.

* Malcolm Dickson is a lecturer in politics at Strathclyde University.

- Mar 6