Ayr by-election 2000

'With the SNP on the back foot, Labour ought to pass its Hamilton examination. If it can win at least the 54 % share it secured in the first vote in the constituency in May, it will be able to claim the result as a clear endorsement of its performance in both Westminster and Holyrood..' Professor John Curtice, 12 th September 1999.

SNP Laugh At Labour Desperation In Ayr
"Record Poll Out By Factor Of 4 In Hamilton"

A Press Release from the Scottish National Party

The Record survey of just 578 people puts the SNP at 14 per cent. But the same survey conducted at the same stage of last September's Hamilton South by-election campaign put the SNP at just 9 per cent in the constituency - 22 points behind Labour. The headline was: "Labour surge ahead in race for Hamilton".

But come polling day in Hamilton, the SNP share of the vote was 34 per cent - less than three points behind Labour! In other words, the Record survey was wrong about the SNP vote by a factor of nearly four.

SNP Deputy Leader Mr John Swinney MSP said:

"We knew that Labour were panicking about Ayr, but to base their claims on such a flawed and discredited survey reeks of desperation.

"In Hamilton, the Record survey under-estimated the SNP share of the vote by a factor of four. The same under-estimate in their Ayr survey would mean the SNP ending up with over 50 per cent!

"The Labour candidate will struggle to be taken seriously if this is the best that they can do."

21 st February 2000